Good spot for allin overbet?

[Pelion]

Good spot for allin overbet?

Hes gotta have hit something and hell, i probably just missed my flushdraw. If hes got AX then thats just shit...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($15.35)
MP1 ($24.20)
MP2 ($8)
CO ($12.10)
Button ($8.70)
SB ($8.50)
Hero ($22.50)
UTG ($1.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 7.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.40) 9, 5, K (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, MP1 calls $0.60, CO calls $0.60, SB folds.

Turn: ($2.20) A (3 players)
Hero bets $3, MP1 calls $3, CO folds.

River: ($8.20) J (2 players)
Hero bets $18.8 (All-In)

[Galapogos]

I dunno, I feel safer making this play if the A is on the board and not the king. Too many people like their suited Ax cards even from early position.

Plus the general rule applies here. The only guy calling you is the guy that's gonna beat you. Why not get some value out of this?

[Pelion]

Plus the general rule applies here. The only guy calling you is the guy that's gonna beat you. Why not get some value out of this?

With the A , K, and J there i figured there was a good chance someone had 2 pair, straight, lower flush, or even a set. This guy was fairly loose and I figured he might think I was bluffing with the A and call with alot of hands that are usually strong on other boards.

[jackvance]

Hm, if your read tells you he is gonna call with a crap hand then this is good, otherwise it looks kinda weird to me..

[sejje]

I like it just fine. I would certainly get all the money in on the flop if I could, so this river bet is great. If he was drawing with Ah you probably weren't making any money here anyway, and if he has some kind of hand like a set or straight or two pair or any of the lower flushes, he's likely to call.

The only other play I could see is trying to value bet the Ah that paired on the turn.

I totally disagree with galapagos; lots of hands can call you here that you totally crush. Two hands beat you.

[andy-akb]

I totally disagree with galapagos; lots of hands can call you here that you totally crush. Two hands beat you.

Are those hands that are calling you that you crush calling enough to offset for when the hands that beat you stack you? And its more than two hands, there are 11 [if I counted right] combinations of Axs and Qxs that would beat the OP.

I understand your play, and as played I would push the river, but I dont agree with it. You overbet the flop with a flush, what happens if another heart hits on the turn? With the preflop action you cant pin down a specific hand on an opponent, they really could be playing any 2 suited cards, 11 combinations of which have you beat, and they also could be playing any ace, 99, 55, KK or hands like KQ, QJ, QT with a Qh, all of these hands are very possible and at $10nl with 4 to a flush and either TPGK or a straight draw [straight doesnt beat you, but they dont know that and will still call down], they arent going to fold. Are you giving them correct odds to chase? Not directly, but I would assume you are going to be overbetting the rest of the way down, so the implied odds are there as if another heart fell you would have paid them off and made it "correct" to call down.

By betting 2/3 of the pot you are giving them incorrect odds and if another heart hits you will be able to cheaply get away from the hand. If a heart hits on the turn and you check, that gives the villain a chance to bluff you off what could be the best hand. If a heart hits the river and you overbet the flop and turn but check the river, you are just asking to be bluffed at. All of these possibilities make it a play I really dont like, do you get paid off? Yes, you said KK called, but if the board pairs, you are paying him off, if another K hits, you are paying him off. There are just so many hands that you will pay off that I dont think this is a good play unless you have a very strong read over several hundred hands that villain is a calling station and wont get away from a hand after overbets all the way. Even against a calling station I simply bet for value, because they can still outdraw you.

Remember, in the fundamental theorem of poker, if you opponent makes a mistake, you profit, if you make a mistake, they profit. By betting less than they pot they are making a mistake in calling, with your bets you are paying off almost every drawing hand that could beat you with the implied odds of stacking you if they hit, that is your mistake. By betting less you still will have a good chance of taking somebodies stack, if they are calling the whole way down they like their hand and most opponents will toss in a raise with their hands, but when you lose it is a lot less expensive.

[bdawg56kg]

Without a read that he's a calling station, I don't like the river push. Just bet $6-8 and you will most likely get paid off. Also, is it your standard to overbet pots like on flop and turn? Make sure you are careful about this b/c aware opponents might realize that these type of bets could possibly tip the strength of your hand.

[Pelion]

Also, is it your standard to overbet pots like on flop and turn? Make sure you are careful about this b/c aware opponents might realize that these type of bets could possibly tip the strength of your hand.

No. but this guy was useless. I wanted to get as much in as I could when I was pretty sure I was ahead and he has a wide calling range.

Also andy-akb, I think overbetting makes it easier to get away from when a scare card comes. Sure, the pot is bigger, but ive given him way worse odds than if i bet 2/3 pot. Think about this example. You have QQ on a board of QJ62 with 2 hearts. The way your opponent has been playing you are sure he has either 9T for the OESD or A7s for the flush draw (because your hand reading is awsome). If he has A7s then he has 9 flush outs. If he has 9T then he has 8 straight outs. You could give him the wrong pot odds to draw to 9 outs, but if the straight hits you have to fold anyway (or risk paying off the straight). Solution? You know he will call a BIG bet so you make a bet big enough to give him incorrect outs to draw to 17 outs. That way if the straight, or the flush hit you can fold profitably even if you are behind.

Over betting the pot in my example means I can fold if the board pairs, or if another heart comes and I can still feel happy that I charged him enough. If the turn and river blank (as they did) then I have made myself look desperate to steal and he probably calls my push with a wide range.

Yes he flipped KK (winning the worst slowplay ever award) but I think he calls with alot of hands there. the only hand that comes this far and beats me is A x. Or maybe QJ. I expect to see Q x so rarely that I can ignore it. I also think Ax probably raises the turn. Stacks are deep and he wants it allin. A call wont get it there.
Another thing that made me want to try this is that he kept thinking ages before he called. By the river I thought he had a strong hand that reaaaaaaly wanted a showdown...something that he thought could be ahead but he was just too scared of the flush...or just the A. I felt he might fold to a value bet, but if I carried on my desperate stealing attempts he could call with a relatvly weak hand.

I pushed. He thought for ages and then said "merry christmas Pelion" before calling.
I dont know if this would work as well at higher levels but with what I had to go on I actually thought there was more chance an allin would be called than a smaller value bet since hed be more likely to think I was bluffing.

I personally like how I played this, but Im probably being results oriented. I think the main point we disagree about is villains calling range to the push. I think given the way he played it he is more likely to have a worse (but good hand) than me that he will call with. The key question is, does he call with AJ. I think as this was played he probably puts me on a busted draw and calls but maybe not...

[andy-akb]

I probably wasnt very clear in my post, it worked out here simply because no other card that fell was a scare card to you. So yes, in this situation against this particular opponent with that particular hand, it worked, as played I would have pushed the river. Im just curious how you would have reacted if the turn were a heart, or paired the board, etc. Would you have checked and then folded? By not overbeting the flop you make the decisions much easier and less costly, and who is to say you wont stack your opponent anyways?

[Pelion]

in both cases i probably check and see what he does. Im not losing alot if the board pairs OR if a heart comes.
Remember, he isnt going to push if he fills up. Hes likely going to make a small value bet (and if he pushes I fold). Same as if another heart comes. He either makes a small bet that I call (and win) or he goes allin and bluffs me off a reasonable sized pot after ive charged him to draw to that heart.
He paid to draw to that bluff so I dont mind folding to it.
Its similar (but in reverse) to gabes thread where he pays to draw to an OESFD when he only has the straight draw because he knows he has close to 100% fold equity if the flush comes.
I did my best to charge him to draw to the full house + flush draw so I dont mind folding when one of them completes. At the same time Ive set myself up to win a massive pot if they dont.