Flop a hidden OESD...

[Lukie]

NL400 6-handed 6-max game on stars.

Hero is playing kind of wild.. stats 38/20
Villain is Lukieplaya.. solid, very tight, very agressive player. Capable of moves but when a lot of money goes in, he usually has the goods.

3 folds

Hero ($435) opens for $12 on the button with 6c7c.
Villain ($471) calls in the SB.
BB (covers) calls.

Flop 9c 5h 4s

Villain leads for $25. Villain has led at the pot where he wasn't the preflop raiser several times now, never going to showdown. BB folds, hero calls.

Turn: Qh
Villain leads for $60. Hero calls.

River: Th
Villain leads for $125. Hero thinks and raises to $292 (almost a push).


Can anybody analyze this hand? How is hero's call down here? Is a flop raise better? As played, what about the turn call.. does he have the implied odds to call against my range? What about the river bluff? Spew?

What kind of range are we putting villain on?

How is villain's play here if he has...

QQ (deceiving smooth call pf followed by a real fast play to try to get a lot of money in against A9/TT/JJ type hands as quickly as possible, improving to the nuts on the turn.)

Jh8h (real loose preflop call with a stone cold bluff on the flop using a tight image, picking up a strong combo draw on the turn and continuing as a semi bluff)

44/55/99 (does it matter which set it is? - not a rhetorical question. Played too fast against somebody who is generally going to have a very weak hand after the flop since he raises so much preflop?)

45s (betting strictly for value)

22/AJ/air (wheeeeeeeeeeeee)



I'm posting this because I find that sometimes you'll find players that have no idea what to do when faced with a good agressive opponent. Most people tend to play very passively post-flop when they don't raise preflop, which gives such a tremendous advantage to the preflop raiser it's not even funny. Wheeeeee let's check/call, check/raise our sets and hope the guy is a donkey and can't get off his top pair or overpair or other transparent, marginal 1 pair hand. Anyway, let's discuss this.

[samsonite2100]

Wow, this is kind of a hard post to respond to, Lukie--there' s so much content.

Okay, so regarding the villain's potential hands, IMO...

QQ--unlikely, but good interesting play
Jh8h--also unlikely to lead huge post flop with absolutely no draws, although you said he is wild. If so, played well
44/55/99--played too fast
45s--standardish

As for hero's play, I like the river push. I think the 10h has to be a scare card for him, and I would put him on a marginal hand he could lay down here. JJ, maybe? Raise seems like it wants a call but is large enough to have FE. You are repping a flush/straight here, no? If so, the question becomes, does villain buy what you're selling, i.e. chasing a draw this doggedly?

NB, I am a 50NL nit.

[thnwkd]

this is so beyond me...

[mxiu]

QQ-- Quite possible given villian's stats, well played, imo.
Jh8h-- quite unlikely for a solid, tight player.
44/55/99-- standard, a bit quick though.
45s--standard, i guess.

I don't like the push from hero. Given images, if villian is solid, they're betting a hand here, and I would be reluctant to believe hero was chasing a runner runner.

[Miffed22001]

hero gets 5:1 on villains stack on the turn so can easily call assuming that his hidden draw will get paid by his push on the river which villain probably has to call getting something like 3:1(?) on the river for stacks.

The river push on what is basically a brick compared to the flop and turn play is transparent to me, id probably call the push with ace high, certainly a pair if i was villain.
Why?
If hero has a flush draw and has cold called the flop with nothing or something just floating or waiting to see the later streets action then he needs to raise the turn. As i said, i dont think villain can fold river if hero pushes a completed flush board if hero only called the turn because it looks too transparent. Thats me, maybe im wrong
Taking thoughts here from lhe play, if your hand improves to a flush draw/oesd on the turn you are encouraged to c/r oop and raise when in position (not always liked by players but i like it) Same applies here id argue. Smooth flop call tells villian nothing, other than it suggests weakness so villain rightly leads again, hard. Facing a raise here on the turn villain has to be careful what he takes to the river or escalates on the turn. Therefore, while its not my favourite play, calling the flop and then raising the turn is a better play looking at the board and hero's hand.
Villain has to then consider 3 things
1. Hero smooth called the flop with a monster
2. Hero's hand just imporved somehow (draw or monster?)
3. Hero just made a play at the pot.

Thus the flop call is good and probably pretty standard for a 30%+vpip player (although i dont like it ) while raising the turn to represent (or at times have) a monster or big draw is paramount if hero wants to steal the river with a genuine looking bluff.
Thus by raising the turn hero
1. Gets villain to pay him when he has a monster here.
2. gets hero to pay him if he hits his hand on the river
3. Picks up possible fold equity if the thr flush completes
4. Probably gets villain to define his hand

Personally, id like to see hero just raise all flops that opps lead into him until they are forced to only lead with a monster hand/draw.
probably garbage and missing stuff but meh.

[Miffed22001]

btw, looking at stacks villain should have potted the turn to kill the 5:1 on his stack regardless of what he had.

[bdawg56kg]

From playing with you and analyzing hands with you, I think air is *never* in your range here. Are you really leading into two other players oop with air? C'mon man.

From the way the hand was played, I think you (villian) has a set a large % of the time here, 44/55 being a lot more likely than 99 because I think with 99 you 3-bet preflop against a 38/20 button raiser. 45s, maybe, but I doubt it. Maybe a hand like 67hh is possible also.

River bluff by hero is total spew. Villian is never folding any kind of made hand here with those pot odds.

[Lukie]

bdawg stop ruining it for the rest of us

[Lukie]

for simplicity's sake I'm just going to go with the original post and refer to myself as villain and the other guy as hero.

miffed, a few points:

1) When action is on hero (turn), the pot is slightly over {$140}. If he calls, there will be about $355 left on the river.

I have no idea where you are getting "5:1 on villain's stack from". In truth, he's getting over {8:1 in} implied - if I stack off every time here -. My range says I won't, and even with a huge hand, a rivered 3 or 8 is a huge scare card for me (villain).

The draw is about a 6:1 shot against hitting. I think this is a poor call by hero on the turn.

2) there's no flush draw on the flop. IMO however, the backdoor flush draw (that completes on the river) adds an interesting dynamic to the hand. I wouldn't consider Th a brick here...

3) I don't really think this is a good spot for hero to raise the turn. He's looking at about 15% pot equity. And as bdawg alluded to, villain has something he likes.

4) Raising all flops where villain leads is playing right into his hands. Villain's range of cards he is playing post-flop is much more powerful then that of hero's.

5) why should villain pot the turn regardless of what he has? What if he's a good enough of a player to kill the implied odds with the bet that he made? In my opinion, hero calling this turn bet is a mistake, whereas folding to a PSB is not.

6) I agree that the river bluff by hero is total spew and is complete donk shit, but I can't agree that villain should call it with ace-high. Many better hands can bluff here. And this isn't always a bluff, that's for sure.


EDIT: WHEN ACTION IS ON VILLAIN ON THE TURN, THE POT IS SLIGHTLY OVER $140 AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY OVER $240 IF HE CALLS.

[Lukie]

From playing with you and analyzing hands with you, I think air is *never* in your range here. Are you really leading into two other players oop with air? C'mon man.

not *never*, but rarely. But given that I led into 3 players (one of which is a crazy lagtard who I'm much more likely to check/fold garbage and agressively value bet big hands) and continued leading at all 3 streets, I have air pretty much never..

From the way the hand was played, I think you (villian) has a set a large % of the time here, 44/55 being a lot more likely than 99 because I think with 99 you 3-bet preflop against a 38/20 button raiser. 45s, maybe, but I doubt it. Maybe a hand like 67hh is possible also.

I had 44. I think my river call is bad.

River bluff by hero is total spew. Villian is never folding any kind of made hand here with those pot odds.

agreed

[bdawg56kg]

I had 44. I think my river call is bad.

[jackvance]

Ok I already read what you had now, but at the flop I was thinking A9/44/55/99/45s.. although A9s and 45s might not be in your range to call on the SB. I'm also guessing that when you lead into the PFR before, this was HU? The small amount of times (because this is 3-way) this is a steal is negated by the fact that you lead again on the turn.

I doubt Villain (you) leads out on a draw. It's a made hand. I really think Hero's river push is spew. He might've gotten me to fold though if I was in a scared mood, backdoor flushes are nasty. As Villain, I "standard" call though. This is either a missed draw or something he picked up the river. If Hero would've had a made hand, I think he raises the turn.

IMO Hero has to lay it down on the river when Villain leads. He likes his hand and he's not folding anymore probably.

[Miffed22001]

If villain only leads with a monster why does hero just not muck the flop?
If your range is so tight hero's decision is simple considering that you wouldnt bet air/middle pair only here. If villain isnt leading marginally at times why does hero even bother calling?
Also, if opp smooth calls flop suggesting your either way behind (unlikely) or hes drawing then villain should just outright pot the bricked turn or even overbet the pot, forcing a mistake or fold from hero on a oesd.
As for the turn call, pot is $70ish? when villain bets $60 into it. Gotta be a set for sure. If we argue (and against this specific villain id not be happy to argue it) that the striaght draw is hidden then calling $60 with villain having $300 behind is imo getting odds on villains stack if he'll get it in on the river despite a danger card hitting. But id argue villain is aware enough to lay down on a river that completes a straight, so the turn call is probably poor in that case.
Id still argue that the river is a brick and villain insta-calls with his range (as we are now putting you on a strong hand) As noted, id call with a lot here because the flush makes zero sense to me, but again if hero knows villain will lead if the flush completes (and has the draw) then we can argue his call on the turn is again acceptable as villain has to block/value bet the river meaning he probably wont fold the river regardless. Probably then, raising the turn isnt worth while as villains range is so tight

What bothers me is that with villain's range so tight and likely so strong there is no need for hero to even play post flop. Villain is too aware to pay the obvious hand from the flop and shouldnt really be scared of the river, if you get runner runnered then meh imo.
Id noe two things then. If you only lead oop with a monster why does anyone bother playing postflop with you? especially in this scenario, they cant be making money.
secondly if you just lead opp can get away from his hand on the turn a lot imo, would you consider c/r'ing here to get a lot o money in on the flop then hitting a brick turn hard to pot commit opp to his draw? I like that line as much with 100bbs stacks.

The orginal question seems to have been to me, do you just passivly call down with an oesd and no pot odds but possibly some good implied odds against an opp who is only going to bet this hard with a monster. Answer: no, only yes if he cant make a laydown of that monster when draws complete.

If i was supposed to have just assumed you had a set here (your range is little else imo) then heros would just muck and not bother playing.

[Lukie]

I'm actually writing a post in another IE window. Here's the hand we've been talking about:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($434.60)
Hero ($471.20)
BB ($642.65)
UTG ($402.10)
MP ($220.85)
CO ($423)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4, 4.
3 folds, Button raises to $12, Hero calls $10, BB calls $8.

Flop: ($36) 9, 5, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $25, BB folds, Button calls $25.

Turn: ($86) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button calls $60.

River: ($206) T (2 players)
Hero bets $125, Button raises to $292, Hero calls $167.

Final Pot: $790

[Lukie]

miffed, there are some things I disagree with.

1) nowhere have I said that I'm only leading here with monsters. I'm not saying i'll do it all the time especially 3 way, but my range here isn't just a set, that's for sure. Even when I lead the turn, my range isn't just set. Here's a cool hand.. villain is the best lagg in the game. Turn play is really debatable with bottom 2, but I thought I was good.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($78.55)
MP ($1133.25)
Button ($1245.40)
Hero ($400)
BB ($484.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 4.
1 fold, MP raises to $16, Button calls $16, Hero calls $14, 1 fold.

Flop: ($52) Q, 9, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $33, MP calls $33, Button folds.

Turn: ($118) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $78, MP raises to $200, Hero raises to $351, MP calls $151.

River: ($820) T (2 players)

Final Pot: $820

2)

If villain only leads with a monster why does hero just not muck the flop?

................................ implied odds? I'll admit that my range here includes a lot of big hands. In truth, I actually like hero's flop call here. I don't like his turn call. Both are debatable, but after his flop call, I'll admit that 67, while I know it's in his range, can't be the first hand I put him on. And it's a $25 call with over $400 behind. When he calls on the turn, I'm aware enough to realize that 3's and 8's are scare cards. It's possible he has another straight draw, but 67 is definately the most likely. In truth, I'm not sure how I'd play a 3 or 8 on the river.

3)

Also, if opp smooth calls flop suggesting your either way behind (unlikely) or hes drawing then villain should just outright pot the bricked turn or even overbet the pot, forcing a mistake or fold from hero on a oesd.

I don't agree with this. First, potting this really makes my hand transparent. We don't know if he's on a draw. My fuzzy math also tells me that if I stack off on the river every time, a call of a potsized bet on the turn on his end is about neutral EV.

More importantly, if I'm not stacking off on the river when the draw completes, OR IF HE HAS A HAND BESIDES A DRAW OR AN OVERSET, him calling the turn bet is *massive* mistake. Him folding to a pot-sized bet is *not* a mistake.

Id noe two things then. If you only lead oop with a monster why does anyone bother playing postflop with you? especially in this scenario, they cant be making money.

I try my hardest to lead with a wider range against players who think similarly. Like I said before though, I'm not just leading with monsters. But in this exact spot it's very unlikely to be air or something to that effect like a pair of deuces.

secondly if you just lead opp can get away from his hand on the turn a lot imo, would you consider c/r'ing here to get a lot o money in on the flop then hitting a brick turn hard to pot commit opp to his draw? I like that line as much with 100bbs stacks.

first, on the flop, we have no idea what he has. He raises 20% of his hands preflop so his range here is enormous. 2nd, I don't like the check/raise in these spots because it gives him a chance to take a free card that can beat me or kill my action, and it's so transparent and powerful that it blows him off the vast, vast majority of 2nd best hands.

The orginal question seems to have been to me, do you just passivly call down with an oesd and no pot odds but possibly some good implied odds against an opp who is only going to bet this hard with a monster. Answer: no, only yes if he cant make a laydown of that monster when draws complete.

I think this turn call by hero is +EV against some players. But you'd have to have a great read that they had a set (not hard against some players) and would stack off on the river.

If i was supposed to have just assumed you had a set here (your range is little else imo) then heros would just muck and not bother playing.

whaaaaaaaaat???

You're mucking an OESD on the flop here against somebody you know has a set???????? Such an easy call if you have their range pegged that tight.

If i was supposed to have just assumed you had a set here (your range is little else imo) then heros would just muck and not bother playing.

ignoring what I wrote above, I could lead here with a lot of stuff. Possible stuff I could lead: set, straight, overpair (usually would be 3-bet preflop but not absolutely always.. I'd call here with a hand like TT/JJ sometimes), a hand like 77/88 sometimes, 54s (if I played it), air (would probably be something that had at least some potential, like an AQ type hand and even that would be rare). Of course all these have different weights and such but my range here isn't just set...

[jackvance]

I'll admit that my range here includes a lot of big hands. In truth, I actually like hero's flop call here. I don't like his turn call. Both are debatable, but after his flop call, I'll admit that 67, while I know it's in his range, can't be the first hand I put him on. And it's a $25 call with over $400 behind. When he calls on the turn, I'm aware enough to realize that 3's and 8's are scare cards. It's possible he has another straight draw, but 67 is definately the most likely. In truth, I'm not sure how I'd play a 3 or 8 on the river.

Why is his turn call bad? I really doubt you're laying down your set when an 8 or 3 shows up, considering you called a push when a 3rd heart shows up, which imo is also a bit of a scare card.

[Lukie]

well unless it's something like 9hxh, or he had some kind of backdoor combo draw like 6h8h, it's really unlikely he backdoor'd the flush. A 3 or 8 would complete the only obvious draw that flopped.

[bdawg56kg]

I had 44. I think my river call is ridiculously standard.

fyp.

[Lukie]

haha that's what i told gabe (who said I should always push river). He kind of convinced me. I said it was probably about neutral EV but even if i'm good, he's not even calling a little more if he has air.

[jackvance]

well unless it's something like 9hxh, or he had some kind of backdoor combo draw like 6h8h, it's really unlikely he backdoor'd the flush. A 3 or 8 would complete the only obvious draw that flopped.

What would you do when you see a 3 or an 8 on the river.. check/fold? Lead/fold? I think you lead/call it anyway right?

[Miffed22001]

pushing the river isnt great as it leaves hero no room to bluff into a pot you are never, ever going to fold leaving you no room to get any more money in. I like your river play, it leaves hero room to bluff off what he has left and for you to never fold against the runner runner, however im still going to debate the turn play.
The pot odds admitedly are disgusting, but with $300 left behind and only calling $60 id make that call with an oesd here if i knew you'd stack off even if the 8 or 3 hit. In this case i know YOU wont, therefore i agree hero's call sucks as he has little implied odds anyway. If hero develops a flush draw on the turn even if he had nothing on the flop id prefer to see a bigger turn bet vs your stack size to kill the 5:1 hero gets on your stack on the turn, although as said i dont think you stack off anyway if hero hits.
Im not convinced hero's calls on the first two streets are bad against your range but i am convinced against a player of your calibre oop, playing it like hero did isnt great, but then hero probably gets into a mess if he raises the flop too because you either 3bet or just destroy all his pot/implied odds on the turn or else induce him to bet into the turn hard and get him commited.
Hero's line generally is horrible to me as i try to play the game this way and as a rule wouldnt ever call here: raise/fold. Yet against a player of your calibre, who wont pay with a stack when the danger cards hit nor play here with air/weak hands, then hero's line is probably the most effective for chasing/getting paid with monsters but the turn call sucks whereas the flop is maybe ok depending on hero's ability to get called with the goods later

[Lukie]

Miffed, I like your analysis.

Jack, truthfully I'm not sure how I would have played a 3/8 river. At the time I was thinking check/call. I don't know if that's a mistake vs his range or not. Regardless, given the stack sizes which basically takes bet/fold out of the question, it would have been a very tough spot to be in.

[Miffed22001]

Miffed, I like your analysis.

Jack, truthfully I'm not sure how I would have played a 3/8 river. At the time I was thinking check/call. I don't know if that's a mistake vs his range or not. Regardless, given the stack sizes which basically takes bet/fold out of the question, it would have been a very tough spot to be in.

would you play a strong tp or overpair the same way out of interest? or for that matter 67s/o here?