Hand vs wiwrobs

[Fnord]

Opponent is wiwrobs at PokerStars. A regular 100NL player. Table texture is weak/tight. wiwrob is a very predictable weak/semi-tight player who likes to under-bet his hands (including c-bets) rarely makes it difficult to showdown a hand, rarely bluff raises and tends to miss out on a lot of value.

My table image is semi-Loose and Aggressive. I've been taking everything not strapped down to the table.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($100)
Button ($131.10)
Fnord ($150.60)
BB ($144.45)
UTG ($118.90)
UTG+1 ($117.35)
MP1 (wiwrobs)($108.30)
MP2 ($120.15)

Preflop: Fnord is SB with 7, 7.
2 folds, MP1 (wiwrobs) calls $1, 3 folds, Fnord completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3) 7, 3, 5 (3 players)
Fnord bets $2, BB folds, wiwrobs calls $2.

Turn: ($7) Q (2 players)
Fnord bets $6, wiwrobs calls $6.

River: ($19) 8 (2 players)
Fnord bets $12, wiwrobs raises to $24, Fnord ???

[Knytestorme]

semi-tight so you can't put him on something like 64 or 69 for the straight.

He might have played Q8s but being MP1 I'd doubt that too.

I'd say he hit his set of 8's since he hasn't played back at you until here and there is no flush made...it's hard to see him not re-raising on the flop to see where his 8's were. He also calls the $6 bet into a $13 pot on the turn where he is behind if you have a Q and don't see him calling this at only 2:1 pot odds.

Changing my mind, he's on a set of 5's and trying to trap you due to your table image, thinking he has sprung the trap on the river, probably puttng you on something like 75 for two pair given your leading into him after only completing the SB

[Fnord]

I've been betting flops like this with any 2 cards. He's probably caught onto this as he's at two of my tables.

[Fnord]

VQC says:
u need to be good on the river 22% of the time to make $$$$$$$$

by the time he makes it to the river + his river raise and given ur read on him, theres no way ur good 22% of the time. By the time the river gets to him on the river hes got to either have a straight or riverd his set. I dont think he woudlve waited to the river to raise u with 33 or 55.
Fnord says:
Folding would be stupid
VQC says:
are u good 22% of hte time?
VQC says:
are u !
Fnord says:
I still call that if I'm good 12% of the time for meta-game.
VQC says:
rofl
VQC says:
i cant quantify the meta game
VQC says:
so tell me do u think ur good 22% of hte time
Fnord says:
Folding really good hands to stupid bets -EV in the long run. Foldng a lot to aggression bad too. It's an invitation for people to make your life difficult.
Fnord says:
Yes, I think I'm good at least 33% of the time.
VQC says:
so wat hands do u think he has on the riveR?
Fnord says:
33/55/88 maybe QQ, maybe AA/KK once in a blue moon the nuts.
VQC says:
he wouldve waited that long to raise u with 33 55?
VQC says:
88 i can definitely see
VQC says:
i would think that he would open raise QQ -AA
Fnord says:
It's a tight poker-stars game. I think he limps a big pair at least 10% of the time.
Fnord says:
I also think there is a pretty good chance it's a set that waited for the river. Just not sure what the likelyhood is.
Fnord says:
Anyway, I called and felt REALLY weak doing so.
VQC says:
as opposed to doing wat?
VQC says:
shoving?
Fnord says:
...there in lies the problem. Exactly 33/55 might call a shove.
VQC says:
egads
VQC says:
wat did he have
VQC says:
i put him on a much smaller range
VQC says:
than u did
Fnord says:
What did you put him on?
VQC says:
by the time we get to the river?
Fnord says:
YEAH
VQC says:
88 99 TT straight
VQC says:
=P
VQC says:
i didnt think he woudl have 33 or 55
VQC says:
it would make sense for him to call the flop
VQC says:
but he woulda check raised the turn
VQC says:
its like the "standard" set play
Fnord says:
He calls the river with 1 pair unless it's maybe an over-pair.
Fnord says:
He was last to act, no need to c/r
VQC says:
woops
VQC says:
just raised
VQC says:
he woudla raised the turn
Fnord says:
*nod*, that's what I thought at the time.

[vqc]

fnord, why do u have to let everyone know that im a donk?
why?

[Fnord]

fnord, why do u have to let everyone know that im a donk?
why?

I thought it was an interesting conversation. Want me to wipe it?

[vqc]

course not

[Knytestorme]

thinking back on what you said about him being weak tight and the fact he acted before you, so your being in the hand or not had no bearing on his decision I'd probably expand my range of hands for him to flat call to be AQ/QQ.

The river raise could indicate that he was waiting to see if an A/K hit or if could be my first thoughts.

I'd still put him on a set and probably come back over the top to like $50 to test him (also probably why I'm in a slight downswing last few days ~lol~) and be willing to push if he does or I'd trust the read on him and, if he hasn't shown any tricky plays so far, belive that his raise on the river indicates that he liked the 8.

[Fnord]

With $50-$60ish stacks it's an easy push. The amount of money behind makes this a funny spot.

If I re-raise to $50, I can't imagine folding.

[vqc]

thinking back on what you said about him being weak tight and the fact he acted before you, so your being in the hand or not had no bearing on his decision I'd probably expand my range of hands for him to flat call to be AQ/QQ.

The river raise could indicate that he was waiting to see if an A/K hit or if could be my first thoughts.

I'd still put him on a set and probably come back over the top to like $50 to test him (also probably why I'm in a slight downswing last few days ~lol~) and be willing to push if he does or I'd trust the read on him and, if he hasn't shown any tricky plays so far, belive that his raise on the river indicates that he liked the 8.

how often does a weak tightie at 100NL open limp AQ or QQ preflop??

[Fnord]

how often does a weak tightie at 100NL open limp AQ or QQ preflop??

Unsure how he plays AQ. A limp wouldn't surprise me.

My guess is AA-QQ is 90%ish raise/10%ish limp.

[Knytestorme]

Can't answer that yet VQ, haven't hit those stakes yet

but if he's at like 16/1 or something then I can put him on flat calling QQ

[Fnord]

He's like 20/5.

[Knytestorme]

around my current stats then, so can see limping AQ but not QQ unless he has something really weird in mind.

And yeah, my apologies if I happen to come out with some really stupid comments in here but figure even if not at these stakes yet I can go over my reasoning and if it's totally donkish I'll be called out on it and so will learn too

[AHiltz]

What does opp possibly know of your betting on all 3 streets? Is he confident that you will fire 3 barrels if you caught something? Can he just call the turn thinking that you will fire the river thus allowing him to raise a small amount that you have to crying call?

[Miffed22001]

raise to $36 for value
Probably fold to a push but thats weak.

[Galapogos]

Really tired right now and just flew through this thread, but no one has brought up 78 as a possible holding for him. That would give him reason for sticking around if he thinks you're full of shit and then getting excited on the river. But yeah then again 88 would do the same. I don't think he has QQ or any overpair higher than 88 though. I don't really ever see these weak tighties calling people down even if they do think they're full of shit.

Hmmm, I haven't been very much help at all...

[Lukie]

This looks like a pretty easy call here.

vqc, cmon man, are you serious? Do you really want us to fold here?

btw, if we're good here 18% of the time or more, the call is profitable.

IMO

calling > pushing > folding

[dalecooper]

I think calling is a no brainer, personally. I can't see folding this to anybody except the weakest, tightest player around for only $12. A more interesting question is where does 3-betting fit in, vs. pushing/calling/folding. There's a lot of money behind here and I think Fnord is ahead of his range, personally.

[Fnord]

A more interesting question is where does 3-betting fit in, vs. pushing/calling/folding.

*ding* *ding* *ding*

So what's my best play?

[Miffed22001]

raise to $36 for value
Probably fold to a push but thats weak.

deja vu?

[dalecooper]

Hmmm. $42 to go and fold to a push..? If you raise much more than that you're in pot-committed territory, and I don't know if I'd want to be committed against whatever hand a weak/tight player might 4-bet on the river.

[Fnord]

Any river line with the word "fold" makes me want to vommit.

[dalecooper]

Any river line with the word "fold" makes me want to vommit.

Understandably; but what does this particular guy push after this action that you're ahead of? Personally I think he flat-calls the raise with most hands, anyway, but if he pushes you need to really think carefully about his hand range. You'd be getting great odds to call of course, but you said he was weak/tight, rarely raises on a bluff, and misses a lot of value... hard to imagine that guy going the distance with two pair or an overpair.

[Fnord]

Any river line with the word "fold" makes me want to vommit.

Understandably; but what does this particular guy push after this action that you're ahead of?

I think there is a high enough chance he auto-felts 33/55 that I can't laydown here.

[dalecooper]

I think there is a high enough chance he auto-felts 33/55 that I can't laydown here.

Hmmm. Yeah. Best guess on all the hands I think he could have:

78 (flat calls a 3-bet)
Qs8s (flat calls a 3-bet)
KK/AA (flat calls a 3-bet)
33, 55 (auto-felts, to use your lovely term)
88, QQ (pushes)
46 (pushes)
6s9s (pushes)

If you look at it that way and figure that 6s9s is fairly unlikely, I guess you can't consider folding the river unless he had a lot more money behind. If you're going to raise, that's committment.

[dalecooper]

Food for thought:

General range
Board: 7h 3s 5s Qd 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.9362 % 48.94% 00.00% { QQ+, 88, 55, 33, Q7s, 9s6s, 87s, 64s, Q7o, 87o, 64o }
Hand 2: 51.0638 % 51.06% 00.00% { 77 }

4-betting range
Board: 7h 3s 5s Qd 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 79.3103 % 79.31% 00.00% { QQ, 88, 55, 33, 9s6s, 64s, 64o }
Hand 2: 20.6897 % 20.69% 00.00% { 77 }


Tell me what you think. If that second range is correct it tilts things back toward "fold to a push", but it leans heavily on the possibility of him having 64 and playing it exactly that way. Which to me seems about as likely as playing 33/55 that way.

[Rondavu]

Opponent Shows 69 spades

[Fnord]

Opponent Shows 69 spades

[mxiu]

I've sat with rob a lot. I don't see him playing 88 this way, but I don't really see him playing 33/55 this way either. But the latter is more likely given your image. I shove the river here.

[Fnord]

I've sat with rob a lot.

What do you think of my read?

FWIW: I pwned him on both tables. It felt good. I should post the JJ hand.

[Miffed22001]

I've sat with rob a lot.

What do you think of my read?

FWIW: I pwned him on both tables. It felt good. I should post the JJ hand.

please do

Im still raising thsi to $36 for value and almost inevitably calling any other bets.

[Fnord]

Im still raising thsi to $36 for value and almost inevitably calling any other bets.

How is this a better line than pushing?

[dalecooper]

So when's the grand unveiling, Fnord? What did you do & what did he have?

[Fnord]

So when's the grand unveiling, Fnord? What did you do & what did he have?

He had bottom set. I felt like I had him by the balls and let him off the hook.

It felt a little better later on when I was able to put him on an exact hand and stack him.

[Miffed22001]

So when's the grand unveiling, Fnord? What did you do & what did he have?

He had bottom set. I felt like I had him by the balls and let him off the hook.

It felt a little better later on when I was able to put him on an exact hand and stack him.

if we reraise he pushes surely? Then we inevitably call

[Fnord]

if we reraise he pushes surely? Then we inevitably call

If we re-raise, I think he's weak enough to call with bottom set quite often. Hence I like the push. If you assume he can't get away from a set here and maybe even pays off with a trappy AA/KK.

I like to minimize the chances my opponents get to put in extra money when they have me smoked.

[Miffed22001]

if we reraise he pushes surely? Then we inevitably call

If we re-raise, I think he's weak enough to call with bottom set quite often. Hence I like the push. If you assume he can't get away from a set here and maybe even pays off with a trappy AA/KK.

I like to minimize the chances my opponents get to put in extra money when they have me smoked.

do you think he calls the push here with a set?
Seems a bit much for me for a weak/tight.
Having said that, my short brush with stars ring proved that players maybe tight but they make some damn awful decisions with strong hands for a lot of chips. I still dont think however he calls the push...

[Lukie]

I think this guy probably calls a 3-bet push on the river with bottom set.

[Lukie]

Im still raising thsi to $36 for value and almost inevitably calling any other bets.

How is this a better line than pushing?

it isn't.

it's not close either.

[mxiu]

Your read was fine. Not to be results-oriented, but wiwrobs definitely wouldn't play 88 like this and given reads, (and my personal reads on him) and he shows a straight here once every 10K hands or something. You're holding the nuts, and he played his hand okay against someone like you though. If he CR'ed the turn, this hand becomes a lot easier to play for you, no?

Do post the other hands though. I've never actually been in a pot with him and am curious.[/i]

[dalecooper]

Your read was fine. Not to be results-oriented, but wiwrobs definitely wouldn't play 88 like this and given reads, (and my personal reads on him) and he shows a straight here once every 10K hands or something.

I don't understand. If he flopped a straight with 46 in a classic BB special, you're saying he wouldn't slowplay it against an aggressive player like Fnord? He would (and did) slowplay bottom set all the way to the river on a board that was friendly to straight AND flush draws, but he wouldn't slowplay the actual nuts? I is confused. As far as 88, I don't haven't played with the guy, but I can see a lot of passive players doing this with 88 if they think Fnord is bluffing them a lot. Raising the flop is better, but raising before the river with bottom set on that board would be better too, and he didn't do that.

I also think 6s9s makes perfect sense with the action, but that's a very specific hand to put him on.

[mxiu]

Your read was fine. Not to be results-oriented, but wiwrobs definitely wouldn't play 88 like this and given reads, (and my personal reads on him) and he shows a straight here once every 10K hands or something.

I don't understand. If he flopped a straight with 46 in a classic BB special, you're saying he wouldn't slowplay it against an aggressive player like Fnord? He would (and did) slowplay bottom set all the way to the river on a board that was friendly to straight AND flush draws, but he wouldn't slowplay the actual nuts? I is confused. As far as 88, I don't haven't played with the guy, but I can see a lot of passive players doing this with 88 if they think Fnord is bluffing them a lot. Raising the flop is better, but raising before the river with bottom set on that board would be better too, and he didn't do that.

I also think 6s9s makes perfect sense with the action, but that's a very specific hand to put him on.

MP1 (wiwrobs) calls $1

[dalecooper]

You know - for some reason I've been posting in here under the assumption he was in the BB and checked. I don't know why I didn't take the time to review the hand history a little more carefully. You're right, any hand that would make a straight on this board isn't very likely for this player.

[a500lbgorilla]

Didn't read the thread. but it had a lot of replies and was by fnord so I wanted to bump it.

Would he play a set faster than this?

Seems like an auto 3-bet to me. I might push if I was less afraid that his river action was the sign of the straight he just made vrs a big hand he been sluggish with.

[Fnord]

Do post the other hands though. I've never actually been in a pot with him and am curious.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($161.70)
MP1 ($40)
MP2 (winrobs) ($84.80)
MP3 ($122.90)
CO ($64.70)
Button ($127)
SB ($205)
Fnord ($145.10)
UTG ($96)

Preflop: Fnord is BB with J, J.
3 folds, MP2 (winrobs) calls $1, 3 folds, SB completes, Fnord checks.

Flop: ($3) 5, 9, 6 (3 players)
SB bets $2, Fnord calls $2, wiwrobs raises to $5, SB calls $3, Fnord calls $3.

Turn: ($18) 5 (3 players)
SB checks, Fnord checks, wiwrobs bets $10, SB folds, Fnord calls $10.

River: ($38) 4 (2 players)
Fnord checks, wiwrobs checks.

Final Pot: $38

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($100.50)
UTG+1 ($112.60)
Fnord ($181.85)
MP2 ($155.15)
MP3 ($103.30)
CO ($131.95)
Button ($97.70)
SB (winrobs) ($71.80)
BB ($107.65)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with K, Q.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, Fnord calls $1, 4 folds, SB (winrobs) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) A, T, T (4 players)
wiwrobs checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Fnord checks.

Turn: ($4) 2 (4 players)
wiwrobs bets $1, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $1, Fnord calls $1.

River: ($7) 9 (3 players)
wiwrobs checks, UTG+1 checks, Fnord bets $6, wiwrobs folds, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: $13

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($112.75)
MP1 ($139.15)
Fnord ($185.05)
MP3 ($148.85)
CO ($108.85)
Button ($129.95)
SB ($96.70)
BB (winrobs) ($69.70)
UTG ($96)

Preflop: Fnord is MP2 with 3, 3.
3 folds, Fnord raises to $4, 4 folds, BB (winrobs) calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) K, 2, A (2 players)
wiwrobs checks, Fnord bets $6, wiwrobs calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) 3 (2 players)
wiwrobs checks, Fnord bets $15, wiwrobs raises to $30, Fnord calls $15.

River: ($80.50) 5 (2 players)
wiwrobs bets $29.7 (All-In), Fnord calls $29.70.

Final Pot: $139.90

[Miffed22001]

Do post the other hands though. I've never actually been in a pot with him and am curious.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($161.70)
MP1 ($40)
MP2 (winrobs) ($84.80)
MP3 ($122.90)
CO ($64.70)
Button ($127)
SB ($205)
Fnord ($145.10)
UTG ($96)

Preflop: Fnord is BB with J, J.
3 folds, MP2 (winrobs) calls $1, 3 folds, SB completes, Fnord checks.

Flop: ($3) 5, 9, 6 (3 players)
SB bets $2, Fnord calls $2, wiwrobs raises to $5, SB calls $3, Fnord calls $3.

Turn: ($18) 5 (3 players)
SB checks, Fnord checks, wiwrobs bets $10, SB folds, Fnord calls $10.

River: ($38) 4 (2 players)
Fnord checks, wiwrobs checks.

Final Pot: $38

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($100.50)
UTG+1 ($112.60)
Fnord ($181.85)
MP2 ($155.15)
MP3 ($103.30)
CO ($131.95)
Button ($97.70)
SB (winrobs) ($71.80)
BB ($107.65)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with K, Q.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, Fnord calls $1, 4 folds, SB (winrobs) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) A, T, T (4 players)
wiwrobs checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Fnord checks.

Turn: ($4) 2 (4 players)
wiwrobs bets $1, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $1, Fnord calls $1.

River: ($7) 9 (3 players)
wiwrobs checks, UTG+1 checks, Fnord bets $6, wiwrobs folds, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: $13

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($112.75)
MP1 ($139.15)
Fnord ($185.05)
MP3 ($148.85)
CO ($108.85)
Button ($129.95)
SB ($96.70)
BB (winrobs) ($69.70)
UTG ($96)

Preflop: Fnord is MP2 with 3, 3.
3 folds, Fnord raises to $4, 4 folds, BB (winrobs) calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) K, 2, A (2 players)
wiwrobs checks, Fnord bets $6, wiwrobs calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) 3 (2 players)
wiwrobs checks, Fnord bets $15, wiwrobs raises to $30, Fnord calls $15.

River: ($80.50) 5 (2 players)
wiwrobs bets $29.7 (All-In), Fnord calls $29.70.

Final Pot: $139.90

the guy isnt even sat with a full buy in and looks like a super-slow play fish to me.

[Lukie]

Do post the other hands though. I've never actually been in a pot with him and am curious.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($161.70)
MP1 ($40)
MP2 (winrobs) ($84.80)
MP3 ($122.90)
CO ($64.70)
Button ($127)
SB ($205)
Fnord ($145.10)
UTG ($96)

Preflop: Fnord is BB with J, J.
3 folds, MP2 (winrobs) calls $1, 3 folds, SB completes, Fnord raises to $5.

There we go, your HH was broken.

[Fnord]

the guy isnt even sat with a full buy in and looks like a super-slow play fish to me.

He bought in full, just wasn't topping off.

For what it's worth, if he's a loser in that game, it's not by much IMHO.