50NL KK turn play

[Halv]

No reads.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($116.20)
UTG+1 ($48.25)
UTG+2 ($51.55)
MP1 ($50.00)
MP2 ($79.25)
Hero ($49.25)
CO ($77.20)
Button ($3.75)
SB ($45.15)
BB ($10.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, K.
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7.5, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $5.50.

Flop: ($15.75) 6, A, 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($15.75) Q (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $5, Hero... folds? calls and re-evaluates river? Raises to??

[Warpe]

...bets flop so he knows where he stands.

[Halv]

...bets flop so he knows where he stands.

Isn't this excactly what that old "checking KK in position with A-high drawless flop"-discussion started by (I think it was) Gabe is about? I believe it was stickied somewhere, but couldn't find it.

The point being that a bet is only getting called/raised by a better hand?

[Warpe]

I don't recall the thread so I'd be interested in reading it.

In my mind, if you check you are saying "I don't have an ace". If you bet you are saying either "I have an ace" or "I don't think you have one." I'd rather bet and know than check and face a tough decision on the turn like you have here. An ace is entirely consistent with your preflop line.

[vegascoop]

I bet 10 here. Looks like it wants a call without risking too much. Gets you your info. You win the pot when has a pair and missed.

[bluey]

call.

[vegascoop]

I meant betting the flop in my post above. I hate this spot on the turn but I'd call since the flop check can induce a bet here from a lot. We're still lost in the hand so try to show down cheap.

[Halv]

In my mind, if you check you are saying "I don't have an ace". If you bet you are saying either "I have an ace" or "I don't think you have one." I'd rather bet and know than check and face a tough decision on the turn like you have here. An ace is entirely consistent with your preflop line.

I check the flop to induce a bluff from a worse hand, most notably JJ/QQ. If he has an A I'm screwed anyway, might as well try and get a bet out of the other hands.

Now a Q comes on the turn, the hands I beat go down drastically, not only does it give QQ his two outs for a set but it is another overcard to JJ and worse, reducing the likelyhood of him bluffing at the pot. Hence this post.

I'll look for the thread I mentioned.

I meant betting the flop in my post above. I hate this spot on the turn but I'd call since the flop check can induce a bet here from a lot. We're still lost in the hand so try to show down cheap.

This was my exact plan on the flop. When the turn card is ugly I'm thinking that a different play might have merit.

A fold could be in order as there is not that many hands that I beat that bluff at this turn. It looks soooo weak though. A raise perhaps? A huge raise might even get him off QQ if he's tight (in face of a slowplayed AAA), given my huge preflop raise. I don't think this is good against an unknown, though. A call/re-evaluate allows us to try and get a cheap showdown against JJ and down, which is the play I made.

So the river comes:
River: ($25.75) T (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $8, Hero...?

edit: here's the thread I was talking about. It's from the SnG forum, but I think the discussion is valid for full ring as well?
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...light=position

[freechus9]

Fold that river. What are you hoping he has, JJ?

[Halv]

Fold that river. What are you hoping he has, JJ?

I was stupid and called, praying to the poker gods that he was a moron and had shit. Sure enough, he had the ace.

[cardsman1992]

I bet that flop for sure. $10-$12.

Call makes me slow down, raise makes me fold. Your bet may even make him fold his TPGK or worse thinking you have AK.

As played I raise turn to $15ish and fold to reraise.

[Halv]

I bet that flop for sure. $10-$12.

Call makes me slow down, raise makes me fold. Your bet may even make him fold his TPGK or worse thinking you have AK.

If villain calls that huge preflop reraise (which is probably too big or what?) he is probably not capable of folding TP to any bet or raise.

As played I raise turn to $15ish and fold to reraise.

A turn raise has the same consequence as a flop bet; it'll fold out worse hands and set me up for a raise by a better hand. Calling the turn bet will let me fold to any river bet with confidence (without a "blufftastic" read), as I don't think any hand I beat will take a stab at the river after I call the turn. (too bad I suck so much that I called the river anyway, lol)

With a Q on the turn I wonder if a fold is the best play afterall? Will hands I beat bluff this turn often enough to make the call profitable?

[DaNutsInYoEye]

You're over thinking. Bet the flop.

[Halv]

You're over thinking. Bet the flop.

I'm trying to rectify my problem of under-thinking. Tell me why I should bet the flop?

Edit: I just looked at your sig, how ironic.

2nd edit: did anyone read the thread I linked to? The way I read it the discussion can be applied to cash games as well (?).

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=21766

[martindcx1e]

i check flop and call turn. fold river.

this is a raised pot. villain raised pf and called a decent re-raise. what is the range for this usually? AA-JJ + AK? Maybe AQ? on the flop there really isn't a draw to worry about given villain's likely holdings. i think checking is good because you will def. be called by a hand with an A, and I think you will get a fold most times from hands you are way ahead of. you make the most money in these situations from letting weaker hands do the betting. yes, you don't know exactly "where you stand," but i do believe you make more money not betting. everyone should read this thread as well...

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=28142

[Warpe]

I concede. I'm bumping that thread link, too. Good discussion.

[Halv]

i check flop and call turn. fold river.
this is a raised pot. villain raised pf and called a decent re-raise. what is the range for this usually? AA-JJ + AK? Maybe AQ?

Maybe add TT to the range, more likely than AQ anyway. So on the flop our plan is to induce a turn bluff from TT-QQ. When the Q hits the turn, won't it usually make TT/JJ look for a checkdown? And of course QQ hits the set.

With the much smaller chance of villain bluffing, are we not better off folding when a Q hits the turn? What about if a J hits?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Look, when you reraise people don't just put you on KK QQ or AA. They have to also put you on AK or AQ. If you bet the flop and bet the turn he'd have to be retarded to call you with just an AQ or worse.

[cardsman1992]

meh...I just think you have some FE by his weak turn bet. I think he has an ace but is afraid that you have a better ace......

btw, would you share villain's handle if they are not an FTR poster?

[Halv]

Look, when you reraise people don't just put you on KK QQ or AA. They have to also put you on AK or AQ. If you bet the flop and bet the turn he'd have to be retarded to call you with just an AQ or worse.

If he's in this pot with a worse ace than AQ I'll say he is retarded, and thus will not fold. If he's super weak tight he just might fold to a huge raise somewhere, putting me on AAA or QQQ (or perhaps AQ two pair), but I don't think so (he probably would have let go preflop in this case). I think we can safely assume that if villain has an A I have to suck out to win this pot.

I don't want him to put me on an ace before I call his turn bet, I want him to bet at me with JJ-. If he puts more money in on the river I'm beat 99% of the time, so a river fold is in order. If I bet the flop I lose a bet when he has an A, and I lose a bluff he'll sometimes make on the turn if he has JJ-. If I check flop and call turn I lose a bet when he has an A, but I gain a bet when he has JJ-.

The key problem in this hand as I see it is the fact that a Q is the scariest card that can come on the turn. I have nearly convinced myself that I think folding>calling>raising the turn (and obviously the river call is an acknowledged mistake).

Can anyone convince me otherwise (or confirm)?

c-man, his handle is 'province', I don't know if he's FTR .

[martindcx1e]

Look, when you reraise people don't just put you on KK QQ or AA.

maybe, but the vast majority of players at low stakes NL tables don't 3-bet a very wide range.

[Halv]

Look, when you reraise people don't just put you on KK QQ or AA.

maybe, but the vast majority of players at low stakes NL tables don't 3-bet a very wide range.

There was no 3-bet?

[martindcx1e]

i'm talking about pre-flop

[Halv]

i'm talking about pre-flop

Me too? I apologise for not seeing what you're getting at. Are you saying that he has a wider calling range preflop than, say, TT+, AK?

[martindcx1e]

2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7.5<----this is a 3-bet pre-flop. people don't do this often enough with out AA-KK, maybe QQ. IowaSkins said when you re-raise (3-bet) people don't just put you on AA or KK. I say maybe not, but it's not unreasonable to since the majority of low-stakes nl players don't 3-bet with a very wide range

[Halv]

2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7.5<----this is a 3-bet pre-flop. people don't do this often enough with out AA-KK, maybe QQ. IowaSkins said when you re-raise (3-bet) people don't just put you on AA or KK. I say maybe not, but it's not unreasonable to since the majority of low-stakes nl players don't 3-bet with a very wide range

Uhm, I always figured a 3-bet was "bet-raise-reraise" (hence 3 bets)?

Edit: anyway, no matter what his preflop calling range is I think his postflop betting range is restricted to hands with Aces in them, plus QQ and lower PPs.

[martindcx1e]

pre-flop there is already a bet...the blinds. that's why it's called a "raise" if you bet more than the blinds. and if someone bets more than your raise it is called a "re-raise" or a "3-bet."

EDIT: and i am not talking about his calling range. i was just responding to iowaskins post about 3-betting pre-flop

[Halv]

Ok. Certainly at least QQ is up there in the "standard" reraise range? Anyway, this is probably topic for a different discussion.

[martindcx1e]

Ok. Certainly at least QQ is up there in the "standard" reraise range? Anyway, this is probably topic for a different discussion.

i think you'd be surprised how many don't 3-bet QQ, but you're right we're OT now

[spoonitnow]

Bet the flop. If you check behind on the flop, he's probably going to bet the turn no matter what comes, and you're going to be put to a very hard decision where you have no idea where you stand (like you were). If he has an ace, so what? If he calls or raises the flop bet you're done with the hand anyway.

Edit: Yeah this got a little math-filled from here on out. Just keep in mind you've got to put him to a decision or he's going to put you to one.

The pot on the flop is $15.75, I'd bet out and see what happens. This bet on the flop is +EV even if he's only folding 37% of the time.

I'm kinda bored so I'll show why:

If we say 37% of the time we win $15.75, and 63% of the time we lose $9.00:

37% of 15.75 = +5.83 (average gain when he folds)
63% of -9.00 = -5.67 (average loss when he continues in the hand)

The EV will actually be better than this, because sometimes he'll call and we'll hit our 2-outer on the turn.

Okay so, 2 cards out of 47 to come is 4.3%, 4.3% of 63% is 2.7% (% of the time he will call and the king will hit), and let's say when you hit the king on the turn you can extract on average another $10 out of villian:

37% of $15.75 = +$5.83 (average gain when he folds)
2.7% of $25.75 = +$0.70 (average gain when he calls and you hit the K)
60.3% of -$9.00 = -$5.43 (average loss when he calls and no K comes)

Average profit of the play: $1.10

Now, it's possible that a bet of $8 or $10 or something has a higher expected value, but I'm just trying to show the point. Also, if he's calling more than 37% of the time, then you're making more profit, and if he's paying you off more than an extra $10 when you hit the 2-outer then you're making more profit.

Wow this got long really quick. Just bet the damn flop.

[Halv]

Bet the flop. If you check behind on the flop, he's probably going to bet the turn no matter what comes, and you're going to be put to a very hard decision where you have no idea where you stand (like you were).

Did you read the linked discussions? This is exactly what I want. I don't want to know where I stand, I want to win the most when I'm ahead and lose the least when I'm behind. The key to the flop check is that we call any turn bet.

I'm no math wiz but I'll try to add this to the calculations.

If we say 37% of the time we win $15.75, and 63% of the time we lose $9.00

This means that 37% of the time he holds QQ or worse, under the assumption that if he's taken Ax this far he's not going to fold to a flop bet.

37% of 15.75 = +5.83 (average gain when he folds)
63% of -9.00 = -5.67 (average loss when he continues in the hand)

The EV will actually be better than this, because sometimes he'll call and we'll hit our 2-outer on the turn.

Okay so, 2 cards out of 47 to come is 4.3%, 4.3% of 63% is 2.7% (% of the time he will call and the king will hit), and let's say when you hit the king on the turn you can extract on average another $10 out of villian:

37% of $15.75 = +$5.83 (average gain when he folds)
2.7% of $25.75 = +$0.70 (average gain when he calls and you hit the K)
60.3% of -$9.00 = -$5.43 (average loss when he calls and no K comes)
Average profit of the play: $1.10

This is wrong because it assumes that he never check-raises the flop. If he has the A he's probably gonna c/r around what, 40%( pulling these numbers out of my fat ass)? This leaves us with 0.6*0.63*4.3= 1.62% of us getting to the turn and improving.

So we get this:
37% of $15.75 = +$5.83 (average gain when he folds)
1.62% of $25.75 = +$0.41 (when he calls and we hit the K)
61.38% of -$9 = -$5.52(when he raises or we don't improve on the turn).
For a total profit of $0.72.

Now let's use the same percentages and see what happens if we check. Let's say that 15% of the time villain has QQ- he will bet the turn for the same 9$ that we would have bet on the flop. 15% of 37% is 5.55%. We'll assume opponent will not bluff both the turn and the river, so we'll fold to any river bet.

So on the turn we get:
5.55% of (15.75$+ 9$)=+1.37$ (when we call his bluff)
31.75% of 15.75$ = +5$ (when the turn goes check-check)
2.7% of $25.75 = +$0.70 (average gain when he has the A and we hit the K)
60.3% of -$9.00 = -$5.43 (average loss when he has us beat and no K comes)
= +1.64$.

A total of 0.82$ more than if we bet flop if we call any turn, more than double the amount.

So while a bet might show a positive EV over folding, it does not show a higher EV than checking and calling any turn.

I started making some calculations for when he hits his 2-outer on a Q or a J, but I just couldn't do it. But I think this is more than compensated for in the times we catch him bluffing or hit our 2-outer K against the Ace.

Again the real question in the hand is what do we do on a J or a Q on the turn?

[spoonitnow]

So let's just call all turn bets with no clue where we're at, that's a good idea.

Let's pay off on the river too, even better.

[Halv]

So let's just call all turn bets with no clue where we're at, that's a good idea.

Yes it is. Please tear apart my EV calculation or at least give me a reason to bet the flop other than to figure out if I'm beat. I'll rather figure that out on the river for the same price.

Let's pay off on the river too, even better.

That's a pretty damned stupid river call and I know it. This has already been acknowledged earlier in the thread.

[martindcx1e]

spoonit, read those linked threads. you should never bet just for the sake of betting. if you bet the flop it is not to protect your hand (villain is most likely not on a draw), it is not to bluff (you have a decent hand), and it is not to build the pot because you know you're ahead. it is a bet for no reason other than to make hands that are way behind fold and hands that are way ahead call/raise. so you check the flop, and you're not certain where you're at....so be it! this is poker, and part of poker is making correct tough decisions sometimes. if you never want to be in a tough decision then you should short-stack. the point is that yes, you could win the pot on the flop with a bet, but if you're willing to play some poker with villain then you will make more in the longrun checking.