Question about "Folding on the River" essay

[Staple Gun]

okay heres a quote from the essay on the front page of this site...

Some players can't see the big picture and are unable to lay hands down on the river. For example suppose the board had 10,J,Q of hearts and you have 8,9 of hearts. You have a straight flush. If there is an 80% chance that your opponent has K,A of hearts and the pot odds are not good then you should fold. In other words if the pre-river pot had $20 and your opponent is on your right and he bets $10 on the river and you know he cannot be bluffed then it is probably best to fold. Some player cannot do this. Some players cannot fold premium hands like straight flushes even when the math tells them to do so

Now how can you put your opponet on the A-K of hearts, isnt that like always putting your opponet on pocket Aces every hand? Especially when he only bet $10 on a $20 pot. The odds of your opponet hold A-K of hearts is like 2500 to 1. A-K of hearts is the only hand that can beat you right now unless the A or K of hearts comes up on the board in which case only the other card can beat you. I think he would probably have a A or K high flush maybe a straight what do you think?

[Toasty]

I think the advice is good but the example used is bad as straight flushes are so uncommon.

It would be better to say you have made a mediam flush and fold as you think you're opp has made a bigger flush, even this could be considered a little weak though.

[Staple Gun]

Yea i guess thats what i was getting at its just a weird example

[|~|ypermegachi]

word of advice from someone who got p0wned not listening to this advice.
it wasn't on the river, but the turn, but the concept still applies.

the board suggested straight for anyone. i got the low straight. i went all in, and they showed a higher straight (9 high vs 10 high).

this is why it's important to bet to test them out, and use that as an indicator to see if you're beat or not. cut your losses.

[Krapp]

I would suggest if you hand was strong enough to get to the river (other than missed draws) you should be calling the river. I.e. A $2 bet in a $8 dollar pot. If you feel your cards have a 20% of winning, you should call. Now how you get there (betting bottom of a straight or getting a straight and someone has a flush) is another story. As from the previous poster, its very important to test the aggressor (especially in no limit, where river bets can be all-ins) or be the aggressor so you know where you stand before the river hits.

[Eric]

Yea, the straight flush example is a bit extreme, maybe a more common situation would have made more sense there.

I've never been on the low end of a straight flush, but I have been on the low end of a regular straight many times and it sucks.

[michael1123]

Haha, yeah, I remember that example, and its pretty ridiculous. Anyone that folds a 2 card straight flush in Holdem out of fear of someone having a better straight flush should not be playing this game.

Especially when they bet $10 into a $20 pot!

A better example would be a board of 9TJQ, you have an 8 or two pair or AQ or whatever, and your opponent bets or raises to the size of the pot. You should definitely fold.

[WestonPoker]

I know that this has been a while sense it was originally posted but i was doing some research on the subject...

and well I want to know why he goes through the whole thing talking about what you think the % of having the winning hand are on the river are and comparing that to pot odds etc .. .then he says that :

"There are times when you know for a fact that you are beat and it is key to understand when this is the case."

why say this and not90- 95% ...surely there is a chance that someone is bluffing or has a strong hand as well but not as strong as you. if you never misread some one you would never lose a hand on the river.

this statement of his is an absolute and well besides when you hold the absolute nuts there are never times when you know that there is an absolute situation(except you bluffing with nothing). what if that guy is running a bluff ? like the other commentors said .. its like assuming that preflop your opponent always has AA.

does anyone have anythoughts on that part of it ? and/or is this guy still around to make a reply ?