Snap Crackle Pop

[Rondavu]

So let's go through an interesting hand, and exactly what my read was through all streets. It's important for you newer players to be thinking about exactly what the villain is holding, so that you can extract value in spots like this.

On this flop (see below), villain wasn't fishy enough to overcall with a flush draw, unless he had a pair as well as the flush draw. He overcalled here IMO, because he didn't respect the min bet lead, and thought I didn't either. Often you'll see top pair overcall like this when some donk keeps minbetting, and a good player raises to isolate him. He'll be like "I don't think so, I have top pair".

I put him on either top pair like me, or maybe 88-99. So I felt like I was either beat, or I would show down weak winner

When the turn Q hits, I have to imagine what the range I'm putting him on would act like in this spot. I imagine the TP?K would check behind, and 88-99 would make a small value bet. He checks behind me, so my read didn't change. Against most 25NL donks, flush draw is squarely in the range in this spot, but not against this villain.

The river completes the flush draw, but remember that I'm not putting him on it, and since I checked the river, it will open up a bigger likelihood that he will bluff. This increases my calling odds. Whenever overwhelming fold equity presents itself to halfway decent players, they take stabs. What would A7 do in this spot? I believe if this player has A7 here, he bets $1-$1.50, because he thinks I'm oh so weak.

When he bets $2.50 on the river here, it becomes an instacall the way the hand played against a known opponent.

Full Tilt Poker Game #914019404: Table Denia (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:03:30 ET - 2006/08/19
Seat 1: 24to1 ($10.65)
Seat 2: Rondavu ($32.10)
Seat 3: The Goff ($27.35)
Seat 4: madtown9 ($25.65)
Seat 5: Garyw007 ($26.65)
Seat 6: nikoli410 ($21.15)
24to1 posts the small blind of $0.10
Rondavu posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rondavu [Kc 7c]
The Goff calls $0.25
madtown9 folds
Garyw007 has 15 seconds left to act
Garyw007 folds
nikoli410 folds
24to1 calls $0.15
Rondavu checks
*** FLOP *** [7h 4s 3s]
24to1 bets $0.25
Rondavu raises to $1.50
The Goff calls $1.50
24to1: hmmmmmm
24to1 has 15 seconds left to act
24to1 folds
*** TURN *** [7h 4s 3s] [Qc]
Rondavu checks
The Goff checks
*** RIVER *** [7h 4s 3s Qc] [As]
Rondavu: vas is dis?
Rondavu checks
The Goff bets $2.25
Rondavu calls $2.25
*** SHOW DOWN ***
The Goff shows [8d 6d] (Ace Queen high)
Rondavu shows [Kc 7c] (a pair of Sevens)
Rondavu wins the pot ($8.10) with a pair of Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8.50 | Rake $0.40
Board: [7h 4s 3s Qc As]
Seat 1: 24to1 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Rondavu (big blind) showed [Kc 7c] and won ($8.10) with a pair of Sevens
Seat 3: The Goff showed [8d 6d] and lost with Ace Queen high
Seat 4: madtown9 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Garyw007 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: nikoli410 (button) didn't bet (folded)

[samsonite2100]

Rondavu, I respect the amount of focus you put into thinking through poker situations, but saying you can tell a difference here between villain betting $1.50 versus $2.25 into a ~$4 pot is a bridge too far. He could have anything, and I think calling down w/ third pair here is usually spew.

[Rondavu]

Rondavu, I respect the amount of focus you put into thinking through poker situations, but saying you can tell a difference here between villain betting $1.50 versus $2.25 into a ~$4 pot is a bridge too far. He could have anything, and I think calling down w/ third pair here is usually spew.

Don't be silly. I respect your opinion, but I don't call down with 3rd pair unless it's ahead enough times to justify the odds. I was certainly ahead here 2 out of 3 times against this villain in this situation.

Also, if I'm right I get a huge meta game edge on a person who has position on me.

Trust me, I can totally see why it looks like spew to you. I don't fault you for mentioning.

[Beck]

why is it you never fealt that he had a flush draw?

[Pelion]

Rondavu, I respect the amount of focus you put into thinking through poker situations, but saying you can tell a difference here between villain betting $1.50 versus $2.25 into a ~$4 pot is a bridge too far. He could have anything, and I think calling down w/ third pair here is usually spew.

calling down with third pair is nowhere near the same as calling a bet with a third pair that only just became the third pair after you showed weakness with a good kicker. If you bet the turn and get called its all over. If you check it and get a bet on the river I think its often a call depending on reads.

[Miffed22001]

Rondavu, I respect the amount of focus you put into thinking through poker situations, but saying you can tell a difference here between villain betting $1.50 versus $2.25 into a ~$4 pot is a bridge too far. He could have anything, and I think calling down w/ third pair here is usually spew.

so opp called a raise on the flop with ace high?

[Rondavu]

so opp called a raise on the flop with ace high?

Try 8 high. Gutshot.

[biondino]

So it doesn't matter to you that your read was totally wrong because 2/3 of the time you'll be near enough totally right?

I fear Ax at these stakes. Had the river been almost any other card, I would have felt comfortable showing down. I also fear a flush draw more than you do - he might have expected the minbettor on the flop to feel priced in to call, therefore justifying his own bet.

He is unlikely to have a straight draw other than a gutshot because of the flop cards, and his turn check says he doesn't have a made straight or a set. 88-99 remains possible, as does 55 or 66, so we can assume they negate each other in terms of likelihood.

So - flush draw, 4th pair or worse, straight draw? or flush, or Ax? I find it very hard to put you ahead more than half the time - of course this still justifies a call, but I'd have a lot less confidence than you do. I also agree that a 75c difference between your perception of what he should bet, and what he does bet, is almost certainly too unpredictable to help make a decision.

[Miffed22001]

so opp called a raise on the flop with ace high?

Try 8 high. Gutshot.

yah, i thought he was playing something like that.
my question was rhetorical

plz kep posting btw.

[Rondavu]

so opp called a raise on the flop with ace high?

Try 8 high. Gutshot.

yah, i thought he was playing something like that.
my question was rhetorical

plz kep posting btw.

The funny part about it, is after I saw what he showed down I realized flush draw was more squarely in his range than I thought during the hand. I went with my read though, so that's what you do until people prove they're capable of things you previously discounted.

I'll keep posting most definately. I'm moving up to 50NL now, so dynamics will change.

[Beck]

I still have to re-ask my question, why is it you neevr felt it was a flush draw. I have so often seen players at that limit call such an overbet when looking for the flush. plus that bet on the river it is kinda asking you to call. please give me your thougts on that.

[Rondavu]

I still have to re-ask my question, why is it you neevr felt it was a flush draw. I have so often seen players at that limit call such an overbet when looking for the flush. plus that bet on the river it is kinda asking you to call. please give me your thougts on that.

When putting the puzzle together, you have to consider the known tendancies of an opponent throughout a hand. You watch how they played their draws in other spots, and compare it to this spot. Basically, my read on this opponent was one that implied he was NOT a chaser. He had folded likely draws before this hand. What changed in this hand obviously, is that he decided to chase based on my obvious move to isolate the donk, coupled with the fact that he felt maybe if he made his miracle I would pay him off with a stong hand like an overpair, set ETC. I feel a respectable player (as this one was) might chase a straight this way, rather than a flush, knowing a flush is less likely to get payed off on the end.

Another less significant piece of the puzzle was his check behind on the turn by a smart Tagg player when a fold equity card popped. Of course this could mean jackshit against a typical 25NL player. There's a whole paragraph that goes along with this. I'll spare you for now. This looks like a typical flush line from villain, but I felt he would semi-bluff a flush draw on this turn in this spot.

Another piece was the end bet size. Let's get one thing straight. A respectable opponent knows you have a very weak hand here, and will bet accordingly with a real hand they want to extract a little more value from. Again, this could mean jackshit against a typical 25NL player.

An additional piece was the fact that since I felt he had no flush, he's not betting a better pair here that hard.

I thought enough of the pieces came together to make a call though. There was a story being told.

[Beck]

thanx for telling me your story