|
|
Opponant has shown strength on every street, so Fnord must expect there to be a good chance he will be called, with Fnord's action looking like a possible missed draw to villain - which means villain is even more likely to call if he has anything. If fnord has just an two pair (AK/AQ etc) then there is not much value in raising the river, as villain isnt calling with a missed draw and is unlikely to have an ace with a worse kicker, and Fnord knows this so I think you can discount all Ax apart from possible A10.
10x is another possiblity but I think it is unlikely, as a raise on the flop would be more likely with such a vulnerable hand, although Fnord may just want to keep the pot small with a marginal hand.
44,55 - These are the most likely hands, even though they have been played in an unorthodox way - it is a good way to play them against decent players, attempting to manipulate the "what does the think I have?" and get paid by misrepresenting your hand, opponant would think "not raising on a draw heavy flop, must be drawing, no way he has a made hand he would have raised to get rid of the draws" and so a river push is far more likely to get called assuming another spade doesnt fall.
Air is a possiblity, with Fnord calling to bluff on any of the numerous scare cards that could come up any overcard or spade, and even a 3 or 8)
also a missed draw - 2 spade, 67. however this is less likely due to the river push which is likely to be called given fnord has played his hand like a draw and opponant has shown strength all the way
Given what Fnord knows - by far and away the most likely hands are 44 or 55, followed by 10x with x most likely being an ace.
If Fnord did have 44 or 55, then I think that this hand is played extremely well, getting maximum value by representing a draw, the pay off for playing sets this way outweigh the times when your action is killed by a spade.
|
Hand vs Fnord
, T
, 4
(2 players)
(2 players)
(2 players)
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by gabe
