Mansion Free Bet Hedge Plan

[zook]

I think I've figured out a way to use Bodog's 10% bonus (clearable at 1x if you don't use Neteller) to create a true hedge bet against the Mansion free bet. This strategy actually slightly INCREASES EV over letting the free bet ride. I made my Mansion free bet on Pittsburgh -4.5 before it got taken down for the weekend. As I stand to increase my BR by 1/3 by taking the sure thing, I'm going to hedge tha muthafucka and guarantee myself $500. Here's the plan:

1) Wait until Bodog posts a line for the Steelers/Dolphins game, probably Monday. Assuming it's Miami +4, like every other sportsbook right now...

2) Deposit $500 at Bodog using Firepay, receiving a $50 bonus which is immediately playable in their sportsbook and cashable at 1x. (I would use Neteller but then the bonus is cashable at 3x.)

3) Wager all $550 on Miami, buying a half-point to make the line +4.5, making it a true hedge (no chance of pushing). Buying the half-point decreases the odds to 1:1.2 (-120 for you sportsbettors), meaning I'll be wagering $550 to win $458.33

4) Root for Miami so I can win an extra $8.33 (see below)

5) If Pittsburgh wins by 5 or more, collect $2100 from Mansion ($1000 winnings and $1100 original bet), for a net gain of $500 ($1000 minus $500 deposited on Bodog).

6) If Miami wins, or Pittsburgh wins by 4 or less, collect $1100 from Mansion (thanks to the refund), and $1008.33 from Bodog ($550 original bet plus $458.33 winnings) for a net gain of $508.33. The Bodog $ is immediately cashable because I've wagered it 1x, but I'll probably play some NLHE for cover before I withdraw.

Major caveat: Bodog only lets you buy up to one point and doesn't let you buy points if the line is off-standard (different odds for each side). So I won't know for sure that this will work until their line comes out. I'll post a follow-up when it does.

Please let me know if you see any flaws in my reasoning.

[ensign_lee]

Flaw:

"If you wish to use your bonus to place bets in the sportsbook and you deposit with Online Check, both the deposit and bonus must be rolled over three (3) times in the sportsbook before any withdrawal requests can be made. If you deposit with any other deposit method, both the deposit and bonus must be rolled over five (5) times in the sportsbook before any withdrawal requests can be made."

Definitely NOT 1x rollover...

[zook]

You're looking at the reload bonus rules. I don't have an account at Bodog and the first deposit bonus rules state:

Sportsbook Bonus Rules:

If you wish to use your bonus to place bets in the sportsbook both the deposit and bonus must be rolled over one time in the sportsbook before any withdrawal requests can be made when using any deposit method except NETeller. If using NETeller for your initial deposit you must roll the deposit and bonus over three (3) times before any withdrawal request can be made.

[ensign_lee]

Sorry; just assumed reload.

Well good job, zook. Well done!

[zook]

Oh well, with Big Ben's emergency appendectomy (sponsored by Mansion Sportsbook!) there's no chance of a hedge now. I should have taken the sure ~$425 using my BetWWTS account last week. Live and don't learn, that's my motto.

GO STEELERS!

[I Like Pie]

I took :

PIT at Pk on Mansion for $1100
MIA at +1 on Pinnacle for $515


Pitt wins by 2-----Profit of $485.00.....($1000 profit from MAN - $515 loss from Pin)

Pitt wins by 1-----Profit of $1,000.00.....($1000 profit from MAN and PUSH from Pin)

TIE-----Profit of $481.31.....($481.31 profit from PIN and PUSH from MAN)

Mia wins by 1-----Profit of $481.31.....($481.31 profit from PIN and $1100 refund from MAN)

Mia wins by 2-----Profit of $481.31.....($481.31 profit from PIN and $1100 refund from MAN)


Did I screw something up or is this right? Do I really have a risk free shot at $1000?

[zook]

Looks good to me... jerk

I've learned my lesson: always place your free bet and hedge bet at the same time! I can't really complain though, as I still have a virtually risk-free shot at $1000.

[r8ed]

What do you think I should do?

I have one 1100 bet on Steelers -4.5 that I placed last week on Mansion.

I have another 1100 bet on Steelers +1 (I got this Monday morning) on Mansion. This is on my brother's account.

I wonder if I should bother hedging. Any thoughts?

[zook]

Depends on how much $475 means to you. You can guarantee yourself that if you make a hedge bet and still have a chance to win $1000 if Pittsburgh wins by 5 or more. If you do hedge, you should take the Miami +1 line being offered at Pinnacle right now. Then if Pittsburgh wins by 1, you'll push your Pinnacle bet and win your second Mansion bet outright for a net gain of $1000. Any scenario with Miami winning or Pittsburgh winning by less than 5, you'll win ~$475, and if Pittsburgh wins by more than 5 you'll win $1475. I'm pretty sure this is right, but double-check my math/logic before you risk any money.

[I Like Pie]

I hope you have this covered:

Only one refund is allowed for each MANSION Member, residential address, email address, telephone number, debit/credit card or NETeller account number and shared computer. The refund applies exclusively to the first account opened in the event multiple accounts are opened.

[r8ed]

I hope you have this covered:

Only one refund is allowed for each MANSION Member, residential address, email address, telephone number, debit/credit card or NETeller account number and shared computer. The refund applies exclusively to the first account opened in the event multiple accounts are opened.

Covered. All that info is separate and legit. I gave him the money, told him how to sign up and promised him $100 if I win since I'm fronting it.

[elipsesjeff]

I'm bwned.

Go steelers!

[mrhappy333]

I'm totally confused... is this gonna work?

[ensign_lee]

It's too late now if you haven't already done the mansion thing.

[zook]

Hahahahaha... I spent all that time figuring out how to hedge, went away for the weekend and got screwed by Big Ben's appendectomy, and now am thanking the football gods I wasn't able to hedge. I Joey Porter.

[ensign_lee]

I <3 Joey Porter indeed.

[r8ed]

No hedge here either!

[I Like Pie]

I profited $485. I'd like to have made the $1000 but I don't reget the hedge because I would have been kicking myself if Miami took it.

[drtofu66]

I profited $485. I'd like to have made the $1000 but I don't reget the hedge because I would have been kicking myself if Miami took it.

You can bet all us -4.5 line bettor/non-hedgers were wishing we'd hedged after Reed missed that FG.

The ONLY way the spread was going to be covered was if a turnover got run back for a TD. Even if the Steelers got the ball back on downs, Cowher would just have run out the clock.

We owe this win to Joey. I wonder what the execs at Mansion were thinking as Joey was scampering in for the TD....

[givememyleg]

I wonder what the execs at Mansion were thinking as Joey was scampering in for the TD....

Oh well... there goes 5 mil, we only have like 5 billion left.