Tough decision with marginal overpair

[NLHE lahooozaher]

Normally this wouldn't be so tough and I'd just muck. But this was different I was playing with this guy for 70 hands and he'd been very loose passive (his after flop aggression was .30), then all of the sudden he plays this hand...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($50)
MP ($65.95)
CO ($32.25)
Hero ($98.83)
SB ($138.60)
BB ($38.79)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 8. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, CO raises to $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3.50, MP folds.

Flop: ($8.75) 9, 8, 7 (2 players)
BB calls $34.79 (All-In), CO calls $28.25 (All-In).

Turn: ($71.79) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($71.79) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $71.79

Results below:
BB has 5c 5d (straight, nine high).
CO has As Ah (one pair, aces).
Outcome: BB wins $71.78.

then 2 hands later...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($49.50)
BB ($66.20)
UTG ($0)
Hero ($98.83)
CO ($138.35)
Button ($68.54)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, 9. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises to $2.22, 1 fold, Button calls $2.22, 2 folds.

Flop: ($5.19) 3, 2, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $3.66, Button calls $66.32 (All-In), Hero???

[Sykedupp]

you're ahead, but not favored to win... (aka he probably has a hand like A6s, str8, flush, overcard outs)... I'd muck, not enough invested.

-Chris

[Irisheyes]

wtf? easy call. He just did almost the same thing with a bottom pair gutshot. Another draw heavy board comes out and he pushes again. I instacall this.

[Sykedupp]

wtf? easy call. He just did almost the same thing with a bottom pair gutshot. Another draw heavy board comes out and he pushes again. I instacall this.

If you cant find a way to get your money in better then 55/45 (at BEST) then call, if you think you can get your money in ahead more, then fold.

-Chris

[Irisheyes]

wtf? easy call. He just did almost the same thing with a bottom pair gutshot. Another draw heavy board comes out and he pushes again. I instacall this.

If you cant find a way to get your money in better then 55/45 (at BEST) then call, if you think you can get your money in ahead more, then fold.

-Chris

Have you looked at the first hand? He pushed as an obvious (as in anything that will ever call his push will be that far ahead) 16% to win in that hand. How exactly does that mean that he is definitly 55/45 in this hand?

[Sykedupp]

wtf? easy call. He just did almost the same thing with a bottom pair gutshot. Another draw heavy board comes out and he pushes again. I instacall this.

If you cant find a way to get your money in better then 55/45 (at BEST) then call, if you think you can get your money in ahead more, then fold.

-Chris

Have you looked at the first hand? He pushed as an obvious (as in anything that will ever call his push will be that far ahead) 36% to win in that hand. How exactly does that mean that he is definitly 55/45 in this hand?

FYP.


His post said for the 1st 70 hands he was loose/passive... I would just take advantage of this and stack him that way, why get in a big pot when you could be anywhere from 8% to 60% to win (with no idea where in that range you are)?

-Chris

[Irisheyes]

I really think you are misreading the first hand, or else I am. In that hand our villian had 55. He open pushed the flop into a pair of Aces with only a gutshot to save him. He had 4 outs (the 4 sixes) and a 16% chance of winning.

I fail to see how that idiotic move on his part means that we are crushed and not that we are crushing a hand like 66. Am I missing something here?

[elipsesjeff]

I agree with irisheyes, i think he wants to give you his stack right now.

[gabe]

gotta call

[Sykedupp]

I misread the 1st hand too, I thought he had 85 (the same 85 hero folded)...

I'd still fold, but perhaps I'm playing it wrong :-\

-Chris

[Genitruc]

Donk had 6 outs in 1st hand. I think it's a tough-ish call. You beat all the pp under 10 10 and if his earlier hand means anything he overvalues both these and weak draws (i.e. AJ or some bs)

[IowaSkinsFan]

easy call, nice job paying attention.