Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 4

[ensign_lee]

Allright, week 3 lines are out. Let's see what got for the early lines:

I'm looking hard at

Jacksonville -2.5 (-112) or -3 (+110) vs. Washington
These can currently be found at Pinnacle and TheGreek, respectively.

I haven't yet pulled the trigger, because I think there may be a little bit of a public overreaction to Washington putting the smack down on my poor Texans, and Jacksonville losing to a good Colts team. Consequently, I want better odds laying -2.5.

Washington is not in the same league as Jacksonville. The beat up on our poor defense, because we couldn't generate an iota of pressure on Brunell. The Jags? Their specialty is pressure on the QB. Brunell is going to have a real hard time throwing with linemen in his face CONSTANTLY.

New England +6 vs. Cincinatti (+105), currently at Pinnacle
or
New England M/L (+whatever it will be): I'm looking for +250
Come on now. Giving NE six points? Is that really smart? I know they just got pounded today by the Broncos, but you can bet Belichick will not sit back and let his team coast this week; they will be prepared for this game. I know that NE isn't the same team it was a few years ago, but come on...

And it's not like Cincy is without trouble either: they've got key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, which will help the Patriots score every which way.

Bengals are getting there: they just aren't there quite 'yet.' New England should be able to stay within six, if not win the game outright.

NE has at least a 50/50 shot to win this game, so getting + money would be of great value to me.

~~~
And I'm taking ganders at:

Arizona +7.5 at Atlanta (-110), currently at Pinnacle
I'd put these two teams on about the same tier, with a slight edge to Atlanta. Come on now...7.5? That's stretching it a bit, don't ya think?

I don't really know what to do with this line, as I doubt it stays where it's at for long. Problem is, I don't know which way it's gonna go: it'll depend strongly on how Atlanta does tomorrow. If they whoop up on NO (hopefully they do: GO ATLANTA!), this line may shoot up. If they fail to do so, then the line will go down to a point where it's unplayable for me.

So uh...Maybe I should take it now? Ah, crap... I dunno.

Dolphins/Texans OVER 38 (-110), currently at Pinnacle
I said it before the season, but only trusted my gut once so far (bad choice): Texans OVERS are going to be plentiful this year.

Our defense can't pressure ANYBODY; and our offense isn't exactly crap either. So what does this add up to? OVERS!

Hell, if Mark Brunell can do it, well ugh...Daunte Culpepper can do it.

{edited to fix the title}

[ensign_lee]

Minnesota pk @ Buffalo (+103)
4 units at Pinnacle

Minnesota is pk at Buffalo? What sense does that make?!?! I thought this line would come out at -3.5 for the Vikings or something like that, but uh...it came out at pk.

I think Minnesota has a very good shot of winning this game outright. They barely lost to a very good Chicago squad (and by barely, I mean BARELY).

And Buffalo? Buffalo is HORRIBLE. I didn't get a chance to look too far in depth at the game they played vs. the Jets, but it looked to me like they were a young and sloppy team, prone to make mistakes that Minnesota will be able to capitalize on.

And Minnesota will be pissed that they lost to Chicago; they may very well take it out on Buffalo.

I may re-evaluate my position later, based on more data, but for now, this looks like a play to me.

[ensign_lee]

Indianapolis -9.5 (+102) vs. NYJ
2 units at Pinnacle

New York is doing well. But who have they faced and won against? Buffalo? Tennessee?

And what happened against the Patriots? Didn't they start off HUGELY in the hole only come back at the last second, probably due to Patriots mental lapses?

There's nobody for the Colts to potentially look ahead to here (they play Tennessee next), so that's not a concern. And the Colts should be able to rip through the Jets' defense like...well...every other team has. Hell, BUFFALO put up 20 against them (ok: only 14 of them were offensive points, but meh). Ditto with Tennessee.

I'm thinking Peyton has the same type of day against the Jets in Week 4 that he did against the Texans in Week 2.

-9.5 looks like a lotta points, but I don't think they're going to mattter in this game.

If the first half line comes out at less than -6, I'll probably be on that as well.

[drmcboy]

whooodeeeey. that line is silly, we can't stop anyone, and you know Dillion is going to be ready to roll.

[ensign_lee]

whooodeeeey. that line is silly, we can't stop anyone, and you know Dillion is going to be ready to roll.

Oh damn: didn't even think about that. Is this the first time they've played since the trade?

[bigspenda73]

Ok, the two I like right from the get go is Balt being an underdog at home and Miami only -4 at Texans.

And damn lee, didn't know we both love the Texans, Im from CC, TX. No way we get any pressure on Dante, and when he can stand still, he's deadly.

BTW, that Buffalo/MIN game looks great, Bills have to be waayy overrated here, gonna see what the line does tho, having a feeling the public will move it to a pick'em.

[drmcboy]

second, he had a solid day last time, but he didn't kill us. I keep hoping he'll throw a fit out there now that they have that kid from Minnesota like he did here, but maybe he realizes he's old.

[ensign_lee]

Actually, drmcboy: you got me thinking.

I think a very, VERY solid play would be:

New England/Cincinatti OVER whatever the hell it will be (within reason. I think the line will come out around 44? I'd take over there)

I think the books/public may overreact to the New England game today, seeing NE only score 7 points. Thing is, Denver has a REALLY good defense. Cincy? Well, their defense was allright before, and now they lost what...3 starters?

Brady should be poised and focused for this next game: he should be able to light it up through the air. Maroney wants to prove he can be 'the man' in NE, and don't forget Dillon: this is still his old team that pretty much kicked him to the curb for Rudi Johnson (thanks for that reminder, drmcboy). He will DEFINITELY be motivated.

And Cincy? Uh...they're CINCI. Add to that the fact that New England has given up a fair amount of points to Denver, New York Jets (the JETS?!?!), and even to Buffalo.

We'll see where the total comes out, but I think OVER would be a very solid play here.

[kingnat]

He will DEFINITELY be motivated.

Unless I misheard the broadcast last night, he is also definitely hurt. I'd wait to check on his status before you get too frothy over this one. Also the starting LT for NE got hurt too... this could be an issue if the Bengals know to take full advantage of this.

GL

[ensign_lee]

Yeah; I'll definitely check the injury report again later.

If Matt Light is out, this could definitely get me off this play.

[ensign_lee]

Record update after MNF:

YTD: 20-27-2
Units won: -10.18

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-4-1
-101 to -110: 10-11-2
+100 to +110: 3-4
+111 to +125: 1-2
+125 to +185: 2-2
+186 to +300: 2-2
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 10-14-1
2 unit plays: 11-8-2
3 unit plays: 0-2
10 unit plays: 0-1

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.

~~~
Thought y'all might like to know my record, so that you can choose to fade/follow me or not.

[elipsesjeff]

You're coming back from a abmissal first week or 2. It's all good.

[ensign_lee]

New Orleans Moneyline (+298.9)
1 unit at Matchbook

New Orleans +8 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

~~~
Blech. Yuch...Glah...

Those are my feelings on betting on New Orleans...period, much less after their hyped up MNF win.

BUT...

I have handicapper's system that I really respect that has this as its TOP TOP TOP play of the week. I also have a stats service that shows this having value as well.

Only problem is that the public seems to be with on these plays as well. Yuch...

But yeah. One moneyline bet and one spread bet. Uh...go Saints?

[Phantaroth]

Miami vs Houston Under 40 1/2 (-110)

I think this is good. I think both these teams have bad offenses.

[ensign_lee]

Ok. Here's some more for y'all:

IND -2.5
ATL -.5
Two Team 6.5-point teaser (-110)
6 units at Mansion

And, here we go:

NE +3.5 (1st half) (-110)
4 units (+1.82) @ BetGameDay
Officially, this is a -110 bet with more units, but I'm throwing my entire 100% bonus on it as well. Since if I lose my bonus, I'm not really 'losing' anything, I'm just going to count part of it as winnings rather than risk

NE Moneyline (+220)
3 units at Nine

NE +6.5 (+105)
9 units @ Bodog
Ditto for the bonus here. I'm putting the full 10% bonus on this (I deposited at Bodog just to make this bet). Therefore, I'm counting the bonus as winnings rather than as money risked. After all, if I lose the bonus, I didn't really 'lose' anything.

ATL -7 (-110)
2 units at Nine
Atlanta comes off an uninspiring loss against the Saints, but looks ahead to their bye week. A system was told to me that teams that are 7 point or more favorites heading into their bye weeks have covered something like 17 of 18 of the past games. I took the free half point at nine, since I wasn't entirely comfortable with teh -7.5 hanging out there, but I have faith that Atlanta should be able to take care of business.

WAS +3 (-110)
1 unit at Nine
Just too much of the public is on the the side of the Jaguars. With Portis back, Washington should be able to put up more of a fight. Also, Jags seem to play differently when they're not hyped up 'as the underdog' at home.

I'll trust the books' opinion here.

WAS Moneyline (+130)
1 unit at Nine

[ensign_lee]

Ok. There currently a scalp situation that you can take advantage of, if you so choose.

What is a scalp? A scalp is betting both side of a game, usually at DIFFERENT books, so that you win no matter who wins. You can also make it so that you can't lose if one side wins and you win if the other side wins. But anyway, you're probably wondering how this works.

Ok. In order for this to work, one side must be offering plus money (like the +113 currently offered at Pinnacle for JAC -3) and the other side must be offering the other side at a number that is either A) plus money as well B) even money, or with juice less that 13 (like the -110 on WAS +3 currently offered at Nine).

I'd recommend using a spreadsheet when you're calculating this, but here's what I did for the game.

I put down 15.1 units on Washington +3 at Nine at (-110) and 13.4 units at Pinnacle at -3 (+113). It's a 3 cent scalp; not much, but profitable. I slanted it towards the Washington side.

There are three things that can happen:
A) JAC wins by exactly three - nothing happens. Push both bets
B) JAC covers - I win .042 units (pretty much nothing)
C) Washington covers - I win .327 units.

Sure, it's not much, but little edges here and there add up.

With this scalp, my WAS +3 bet officially becomes me:
Risking 1.1 units
To win: (.327 scalped + 1 unit if bet wins) = 1.327 units

That makes my odds for my WAS +3 bet not -110, but +120.6. WOOHOO!

So, replace my old
WAS +3 (-110)
1 unit at Nine

to...
WAS +3 (+120.6)
1 unit at Nine

[ensign_lee]

I don't usually dabble in Favorite Moneylines, but if Vince Young is going to start for the Titans, a Dallas M/L bet is in order. Quarterbacks don't usually win their first starts, especially when they're just randomly thrust in there, like it seems Bud Adams is forcing Jeff Fisher to do.

You know Adams is just doing this to piss off Jerry Jones, showing off his new trophy in front of a Texan team.

Still shopping for the best line. Will update when I find it.

[ensign_lee]

I'm also scalping out my Original NO +8 (-110) bet. The public is just WAAAAY too much on that side. And too many cappers that I respect are CAR.

I will keep the moneyline for the sake of the system that I'm using, but +8 is going away.

In the end, I will have risked 1.1 units to win 1 unit on NO +8 (-110) and will have risked 1 unit to win 1.12 unts on CAR -8. So that cancels my bet, and then a little bit extra.

[ensign_lee]

Ok. I overslept this morning and wasn't able to get the Dallas Moneyline in.

Oh well...

[ensign_lee]

One more to cap off what has been a pretty awesome day.

SEA +4 (-110)
2 units @ Skybook

I knew that Minnesota bet was too good to be true, but did I listen to my gut feeling there? NOOOO...

[ensign_lee]

Recap of this week's bets:

Minnesota pk @ Buffalo (+103)
4 units - LOSS

Indianapolis -9.5 (+102) vs. NYJ
2 units - LOSS

New Orleans Moneyline (+298.9)
1 unit - LOSS

IND -2.5 / ATL -.5 Two Team, 6.5 point Teaser (-110)
6 units - WIN

New England +3.5 - 1st Half (-110)
4 units risked with 4 units bonus risked
To win: 7.27 units - WIN

New England Moneyline (+220)
3 units - WIN

NE +6.5 (+105)
9 units - WIN

ATL -7 (-110)
2 units - WIN

WAS +3 (+120)
1 unit - WIN

WAS Moneyline (+130)
1 unit - WIN

SEA +4 (-110)
2 units (Game isn't over, but already chalking it up as a loss) - LOSS

[ensign_lee]

And now, for the record update:

YTD: 27-31-2
Units won: 15.11

Sunday's Record: 7-4
Units Won: 25.29 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-4-1
-101 to -110: 13-12-2
+100 to +110: 4-6
+111 to +125: 1-2
+125 to +185: 4-2
+186 to +300: 3-3
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 12-15-1
2 unit plays: 12-10-2
3 unit plays: 1-2
4 unit plays: 1-1
6 unit plays: 1-0
9 unit plays: 1-0
10 unit plays: 0-1

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.

[ensign_lee]

WOOHOO!!!

BACK IN THE PLUS MONEY!

Made my stand on the NE game, 'cause I just saw all the factors pointing correctly:

1) Revenge game for Dillon
2) Patriots after an upset loss
3) Bengals after an emotional divisional win
4) Public (70+%) on the other side
5) Patriots track record vs. Finesse Teams (Colts, Bengals)

WOOHOO!!!