3bet semibluff...+EV?

[nutsinho]

Assume no reads and 100BB stacks, 200NL
Dealt to nutsinho [ 5d 8d ]
cs1211 folds.
RafnJ calls [$2].
ultimate8s folds.
Viking36 folds.
nutsinho calls [$2].
blue_thun folds.
MingusTheDog folds.
cubanshrink raises [$6].
Asumpta folds.
RafnJ calls [$5].
nutsinho calls [$5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 6d, 9d ]
cubanshrink bets [$10].
RafnJ raises [$30].
nutsinho raises [$99].

[topsoyale]

Odd one

Your raise certainly should knock out pure flush draws which would be very useful.

Opponents have to put you on a set from the way you played pre-flop I think, just limping and calling a small raise. Your only problem is that at least one of them has you thouroughly beaten at this point, and if thats with a set you've just given them a lot of money.

Saying that, I quite like the play. I don't think they're calling this with top pair, the flush draw or straight draw so good line.

[Fnord]

Another option is to re-raise to $60 and shove any turn card.

[Blinky]

I like it, though I can't prove that it's +EV.

My questions:
1. Are we calling if either player shoves against our 3-bet?
2. What is our play if called on flop and we miss on the turn? (I'm thinking probably shove but this is burning money against a set, esp if the bd pairs).

[nutsinho]

1. definitely
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 9d 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 5d 335 33.84 646 65.25 9 0.91 0.343
9s 9c 646 65.25 335 33.84 9 0.91 0.657
We'd be getting over 3 to 1 and we would only need 2:1.

2. Well, I have position and I would assume no fold equity if called on the flop because my bet would be less than half pot, so I'd just check behind and hope to hit.

[Miffed22001]

how often are you planning to use it?
As a rule i dont like it, but i do use it against players who are good enough to fold something that a weaker/fishier player might call/push with (eg AA)

[nutsinho]

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Tc 9d 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 517 52.22 464 46.87 9 0.91 0.527
8d 5d 464 46.87 517 52.22 9 0.91 0.473

It doesnt matter if they call with an overpair, but I gain more if they fold. Thus, I'd pretty much do it every time I thought the guy who raised the flop could easily be doing it with worse than T9. If the guy was a total nit I might just fold.