Pot odds for all-in

[maverickai]

$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, October 12, 13:02:14 ET 2006
Table Reely Mine (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 3: HU_MANBE_IN_G ( $24.70 )
Seat 9: TomInDzeri ( $27.05 )
Seat 6: maverickai ( $34.70 )
Seat 5: bigc0669 ( $30.67 )
Seat 10: RetailBill ( $19.65 )
Seat 8: banaan_007 ( $20.95 )
Seat 1: DKliksi ( $4.15 )
Seat 2: Lyrus_One ( $5.10 )
Seat 7: frankyboy7777 ( $24.75 )
Lyrus_One posts small blind [$0.10].
HU_MANBE_IN_G posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to maverickai 8 A
bigc0669 folds.
maverickai calls [$0.25].
frankyboy7777 calls [$0.25].
banaan_007 raises [$1].
TomInDzeri folds.
RetailBill calls [$1].
DKliksi folds.
Lyrus_One folds.
>You have options at Mi Kaw Noo Table!.
HU_MANBE_IN_G folds.
maverickai calls [$0.75].
frankyboy7777 calls [$0.75].
** Dealing Flop ** 5 ,10 ,6
maverickai checks.
frankyboy7777 checks.
banaan_007 bets [$3].
ReSWest has joined the table.
RetailBill raises [$7].
maverickai folds.
frankyboy7777 folds.
banaan_007 calls [$4].
** Dealing Turn ** 2
banaan_007 is all-In [$12.95]
RetailBill is all-In [$11.65]
** Dealing River ** J
banaan_007 shows A A a pair of aces.
RetailBill shows 10 , 10 three of a kind, tens.
banaan_007 wins $1.30 from side pot #1 with a pair of aces.
RetailBill wins $39.60 from the main pot with three of a kind, tens.

I was actually comtemplating to push all-in with my nut flush draw with 2 more cards to come. This would pose some fold equity to Banann, but deefinitely not RetailBill . I expect RetailBill to call an all-in.

I'm not familiar with calcualting odds for pushing all-in, hence is pushing advisable, since I'm the last to act? Calculating pot odds for pushing has been always a blur for me. Any advice is appreciated.

[Blinky]

You don't usually use pot odds that way.

Generally, pot odds are used to help you figure if a bet is worth calling if/when you're drawing.

When it comes to this situation where you're contemplating a flop push, you need to start to combine your fold equity and the odds that you'll hit your flush into an expected value.

That said... stop looking at results (it also helps to avoid posting results in the first place).

[maverickai]

When it comes to this situation where you're contemplating a flop push, you need to start to combine your fold equity and the odds that you'll hit your flush into an expected value.

May I know what is the method to calculate the combination of fold equity and odds I'll hit my flush?

Thanks.

[Blinky]

May I know what is the method to calculate the combination of fold equity and odds I'll hit my flush?

I suggest that you browse a good website or pick up a poker book that will probably explain things a bit better than I will here. There is no way around not knowing some basic odds and percentages if you want to win money.

Calculating the odds you'll hit your flush is pretty easy.

On the flop, you are four-to-a-flush. There are 47 unknown cards left. Assuming that you need to hit your flush to win (IOW an ace doesn't help you), your chances of hitting on the turn are the odds of hitting one of the nine remaining hearts.

There is a rule of thumb you can quickly use to get a rough idea of the odds you'll hit. To estimate the odds you'll hit one of your outs on the next card, multiply the number of outs by two (this is the "rule of two") and add one per cent. This gives us 19% to hit ON THE TURN ALONE.

If we assume that we'll see both turn and river cards, multiply the number of outs by four (rule of four). We're ~36% to hit if we see both cards.

Fold equity is a concept more than a number. It is highly dependent on your opponent(s), what they play and how they'd play it and what they're holding.

If you are facing (a) reasonably competent opponent(s), in this single particular situation a push as last-to-act will generally fold out hands like top pair and worse, and weaker draws. You may get a call from someone who overvalues TPTK.

At 25 NL you are probably going to be called by an overpair; 2pr depends on player; you almost certainly be called by a set unless opp is very weak/paranoid.

[maverickai]

Thanks mate. I'll go do some research too.