Set on flop vs. bet and raise in front of me....

[djzcko]

No reads on villain (MP2) other than he was 33/4 after only 27 hands. I consider this too small a sample size to draw any conclusions but....what should I have done? I took every second they gave me to make this decision...


Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $49.50
UTG+1: $50.10
MP1: $97.00
MP2: $146.70
MP3: $121.10
HERO: $104.90
Button: $166.50
SB: $115.25
BB: $98.00

Pre-flop: (9 players) HERO is CO with 3 3
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, HERO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: 3 7 9 ($5.5, 5 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $5, MP2 raises to $20, HERO ?

[Fnord]

All-in.

Anything you do here besides fold signals extreme strength anyway.

[TerryToma]

pushola.

[djzcko]

Well....like I said in my original post, I thought a long time before making my decision. Folding a flopped set is REALLY tough and I've only done it one other time (which turned out to be the correct read). My thought process was as follows:

1. MP2 was the guy I was worried about. He did not raise insta-allin. Insta-allin usually means flush draw, str8 draw or TPTK.
2. A healthy 5x raise usually indicates strength, especially when the board has a clear draw.
3. He likely has a set and is trying to take away pot odds for the flush draw. As such, he probably has 77 and might have 99.
4. I only have $1 invested in the pot.
5. I bit my lip and folded.

His flop bet was called but his turn bet was not. Lucky for me, MP2 showed his cards.....he showed 99 for top set. Phew!

Lesson learned:

1. If he had raised his 99 pf, he would have stacked me. I would have put him on a wider range of cards and would have taken him allin with the thought that he likely had an overpair (AA , KK or QQ).
2. Trust your instincts. I had no reads on this guy but it sure smelled like a set to me.

[drmcboy]

I like how you say

I consider this too small a sample size to draw any conclusions

and

No reads on villain

And then you fold bottom set on the super draw board.


but hey, you were right, must be the best play.

[djzcko]

I like how you say

I consider this too small a sample size to draw any conclusions

and

No reads on villain

And then you fold bottom set on the super draw board.


but hey, you were right, must be the best play.

Sure, I didn't have any reads on villain which meant I had no idea how he would play top set. So, I defaulted to how the "average" good player would play a set on a draw heavy board and went with it. If I knew anything solid about villain, I would have probably made a different play.

[Fnord]

OMG! This thread went from suck to blow!

20,790 games 0.010 secs 2,079,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 7c 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 62.4242 % 62.42% 00.00% { 3h3s }
Hand 2: 37.5758 % 37.58% 00.00% { JJ-99, 77, 97s }

...and I haven't even figured in draws or deep limped QQ+.

[NLHE lahooozaher]

Lesson learned:
I made the right decision this time but over the long run is a bad decision.

FYP

[Halv]

I like how you say

I consider this too small a sample size to draw any conclusions

and

No reads on villain

And then you fold bottom set on the super draw board.

QFT

[Margin Of Error]

All-in.

Anything you do here besides fold signals extreme strength anyway.

Agreed, you'd have to be crazy to fold this hand in a limped pf pot. Calling and letting them see another card is bad too, this is a clear push.

[phantom_lord]

I'd probably fold in this spot in a raised pot, but limped I'd probably push.

[HotRods]

Good fold, wish I had the discipline to do that. About 6 months ago I had 55, flop came 2 5 9, 3 handed, we all went all in. someone turned over 22 and the other 99. OUCH