zook's Picks: NFL Week 9

[zook]

Well, I did something dumb this week and made an early bet on a line I thought would move. It did move, but 2 points in the opposite direction I was expecting So, I'm stuck with:

Den (+1) vs. PIT (+120) @ Pinnacle - 2 units

I still really like this game. I have no idea why Denver is an underdog here. The line is at +3 right now, and I'll probably hop on that for one or two more units. Moneyline is tempting, but 3 points is nothing to sneeze at with two good defensive teams.

I don't like the teaser options this week, but I'm thinking about straight bets on:

Atl (-5) vs. DET
SEA (-7) vs. Oak

[ensign_lee]

Yeah. I got caught in that trap too.

I thought for sure line would move the othe rway.

Now I'm stuck. I'm probably going to have to eat a 2 unit loss on it.

I got even worse than you, actually. I have DEN pk (+101). Fuck me...

[zook]

Now I'm stuck. I'm probably going to have to eat a 2 unit loss on it.

No you're not, Denver's gonna win!

Did you see this from the Pinnacle Pulse yesterday?

Denver +2.5 +103 v. Pittsburgh

Every once in awhile, we are really surprised at how the public bets on a game. This is one of those instances – we opened Denver as a 1-point favorite, and took three bets on the Steelers for every one on the Broncos. The sharps started betting on Denver mid-week, but the heavier public volume is still causing this line to creep towards Pittsburgh -3.

What's weird is that the site I check to see what the public's betting is showing 70% on Denver. WTF.

[ensign_lee]

Yeah. I think they're blowing smoke up our butts.

I have 8 units on DEN M/L at +102.

I'm probably going to have to go the other way with PIT M/L at -147. YUCH...

[zook]

I think eating this loss is -EV. To make it +EV to turn an 8-point play into a sure ~2 unit loss, Pittsburgh has to win 60% of the time, i.e. be a 1.5:1 favorite. Right now the moneylines (minus juice) are a little under that.

[ensign_lee]

I think PIT wins this more than 60% of the time.

Of course, I also thought last week's IND/DEN game was a trap, and the NE/MIN game was a trap. SO....

[zook]

Besides the early 2-unit Denver bet (+1, +120), all I have is:

Atl -5 vs. DET (-103) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I want to put another two units on Denver, but the juice on the +3 line at Pinnacle went up to -115! And the ML went down from a high around +142 to +132. Hmmm... I'll keep watching it I guess.

[zook]

Ok, added another couple of units on Denver:

Den +3 vs. PIT (-109) 2 units @ Pinnacle

This game is my biggest position of the season

[zook]

Wow, crazy week. About the only game that went how I thought it would was my four-unit play Just placed this:

Indy +3 vs. NE (+108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Regular-season game, not too much pressure, Peyton will shine. Pats have looked good this year, but they've only played one team that has a winning record after this week and they lost to them (Denver).

[zook]

Good day +4 units.

YTD Record Update:

Straight wagers: 8-4
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 0-3

+17 units

[ensign_lee]

Not to be an ass, but didn't you go 3-1 today?

So Denver +2 units
Indy +1 unit
Atlanta -1.03 units

How does that equal 4? Just wanted to make sure your records were accurate; inaccurate information is definitely -EV.

[bigspenda73]

Looks like he put 4 units on Denver,2 units at +1 and 2 more when the line moved. Therefore he ended up 4 units to the good.

[ensign_lee]

Ah...

<--- forgot to read what wasn't in bold. Whoops...

[zook]

Every bet's in bold lee! You're questioning my record-keeping?!?!?!

I'm not as meticulous as you are though, I round things up and down to half-units for the YTD and occasionally bet slightly more or less than whole units (I had ~4.1 units on DEN for example) and don't put it in there. I would never lie to you though, lee