Downswings...how long do they last?

[djzcko]

Just a general question here. I am currently the proud owner of a 11 buyin downswing, beginning around Oct 1. I play $100nl, full ring. I play fairly nitty at 13/5 and have been highly sucessful at $25nl and $50nl. Given my nitty play style, 11 buyins is quite a substantial downswing. In short, I have been mainly the victim of bad beat after bad beat. Throw in a few stupid plays in the mix and we have a major downswing. It just won't end. Last night it was the same tape over again: KK, raise it up, get one caller. Flop is all unders. Bet/called. Turn is another blank. Read villain with an overpair. Go allin on turn. He calls. River is a J. Villain flips JJ. Two days ago, I had AK, flopped an Ace...blah blah blah. Get it allin on the turn, he calls. River is a queen. He flips QQ. Three days ago, it was KK on a 2 2 2 flop, get it allin....river was an 8. Villain flips 88. It just won't stop. I'm losing every single 95/5 I've gotten into. 80/20's are the same also. Even when I flop a set, I'm losing. Flopped top set 999, bet it, called. Turn is a T. Get it allin and villain flips TT. Get AA, flop a set on a A J X board, bet it, get raised, re-raise allin, call. Turn is a Q, river is a blank. Villain shows TK for the gutshot. OK, I think I got my point across. I've got more if you want to hear them...just send me a private mail!

Back to my question: Those of you that have gone into major downswings, how long does this #*&^ last? This is just plain unreal. It's been about 3 weeks and 10k hands this has gone on. I'm about to blow a gasket...

I don't want to hear "You got your money in with the best hand". I know that. Just want to know how long this kind of #&$^ can last. I'm not sure if my computer can take any more abuse at this point!

[swiggidy]

> Downswings...how long do they last?

Until you learn to use the <Enter> key

[Anosmic]

It lasts until it ends.

It's like when you flip a coin, what's the chance of it being heads? 50%. But we've just had a 10-straight tail-swing. What's the chance of it being heads?

You're 95% to win the next 95-5 pot you're in. And the next one. It ends when it ends.

But you know this right? You're just here for sympathy? Which is fine, except really it's probably the wrong forum for it.

[djzcko]

Not looking for sympathy. Just looking for an idea of what others have experienced in terms of their worst downswings. You are right though...it will end when it ends.

[donkbee]

Sorry to hear that you're running so bad. A lot of us who've played decent amounts of poker know how you feel. A lot of people who have played a lot of poker will probably tell you that this isn't the worst downswing that'll ever happen. You just gotta be strong and suck it up ...

So yeah. I'm sure you know that downswings aren't correlated with anything (unless you tilt). Any given bad beat doesn't depend on another. So it's impossible to know when it's going to end.

You probably wrote the post to vent, that's cool. We know how you feel. Keep playing poker and you'll get thru it.

[Setzy]

I broke even for almost 50k hands back in August at 50NL. Basically I was down the entire month, but had a short upswing at the end of the month that put me just above breakeven. Beats suck, but that's why you have a BR with a cushion.

[jackvance]

Thing is.. you give some bad beat hands as evidence, I always see people do this, but normally if you are on top of your game, those bad beats happen and you can still be running a profit. Especially at below 100NL.

If it's really just variance, there's nothing that can be done. But that attitude isn't optimal imo. Look for ways to improve your game to turn things around. Some thoughts:
- people might have caught on to your nittyness and you're almost not getting paid anymore on your winners.
- boredom/routine has struck without you noticing it and you're not so actively thinking anymore about putting people on ranges, spotting steals, spotting people that you have to slowplay against to get paid from, etc
- seeing so few hands is making it harder for you to fold when beat
- etc

[Margin Of Error]

Dunnow about yall but when I'm running that bad I take a little break from the cards. I guarantee you the answer to your question isnt more poker.

[Jethro87]

Are you just a multitable grinder or what? 13/5 is crazy nitty. I suggest trying to open up your game more, try to do 16/10 or something. This has nothing to do with your downswing, i just think it will make you a better player.

[gametight]

All of October was one huge bad beat for me. Not exactly sure how many hands I played total but I must have had around 20 undersets, and a bunch of two outers on the river. I also lost the biggest pot Ive ever played in a casino when the guy caught a two outer on the river to beat my set. I still somehow only ended up down about 800 on the month. (I also multi table 100 NL for the most part)

This was really my first loosing month ever. If you are not on tilt, try to play through it. I have playd a ton of hands this week and have already made double what I lost last month.

It turns around quick when it turns. Keep at it man. Peace.

[Reidak]

13/5 might be where your problem is

see, when you are at 18/10 you see flops youll never see at 13/5. You will be hitting more straights, more flushes, etc. If you get your money in at a good time, youll be making money. I think you need to loosen up, and get more agressive. Youll make more money this way, and the extra money will dampen the blows of these suckouts your talking about.

We all know what your talking about

[Xanadu]

How long can it last? A few thoughts from the math of it ...

Assuming the likely Poisson distribution as a good fit for down-swing length, no matter how long you are in a down swing you get no nearer the end (from an expectation point of view). That is, no matter how long you've been there, the expectation of how much longer you will be there is unchanged. Fancy way of saying it lasts until it is over and although you can estimate how long that might be, one more bad beat gets you no closer to the end of it. There is no such thing as being 'due' in poker or any other sufficiently random process (slots and the scratch off lottery don't count, and it is possible to beat both of these if you are bored enough ... anyone know why?)

There is also a non-zero probability that your downswing will never end. It is perfectly possible, no matter how improbable, that any poker player in the world could lose every hand they play for the rest of their lives. The probability for this never drops all the way to zero. The key for downswings is that we aren't talking about a lifetime, but only a few thousand hands. A winning poker player having a 500,000 hand downswing borders on the ridiculously unlikely. Take that down to just a few thousand, or even ten thousand, and the chances rise to 'very unlikely but you are definitely going to see it happen once in a while'.

[Seasider]

Take a break; I had a hideous downswing over the summer (12-13 buy in's I think) and nearly swore off the game. Some was genuine bad beats (the hands you described sounded awfuly familiar). I think I finally cracked when my Kings were re raised twice in a row by rocks pf. Both times I put them on AA, both times I caught a K on the flop and got it all in, both times there was an A on later streets. Then my AA gets busted by a pair of J's catching a straight lol. On the back of everything at the time I think that was my darkest moment in poker, I was playing well, putting ppl on cards well, geting action when I wanted it and still the downswing continued!

However when I looked at my histories there was also lots of tilting off, calling AI's with 2 pr weak overs etc. etc. I just got to a point where I had lost so much I didnt care about losing more, for some sessions I was just a gambooling fish!

Thing was at the time I was sort of blinded to this and it was only when I took time off and then looked back at HH's I was like "S**T I pushed all in over the top of that!".

So I moved down a limit, to teach myself some discipline and gain some confidence and was soon back to where I started and moving forward.

So I guess taking a break is good, really looking at your sessions is good and not going to the table with the attitude of 'this is the session I make 4 buy in's of my money back' is definatly good! Its not your money any more and the guys at the table know nothing about it, just play the game!

Anyway you'll pull through i'm sure.

[Rondavu]

Couple months ago I had a 20 buy in downswing. It was the worst downswing I ever experienced. No big deal. Since then I'm up 35 buy ins from the lowest point, and have moved up a level. There wasn't a turn or river that was nice to me. I remember one hand I flopped an AK high nutflush, and full stacked villain flopped a one gapper straight flush. Lol, I thought. Just what I need in the midst of a dowswing. I probably even tilted off 3 of those buy ins, because it's really hard to take that many bad beats in a row and still remain calm.

You're probably at the end of it. I'm a high variance player. You're a low variance player. 15 buy ins would be a remarkably large downswing for you.

[djzcko]

OK, thanks for all the great posts guys. Given that I am such a nit, I never thought such a large swing would be remotely possible. I normally swing +/- 5 buyins in extreme cases. Well, the good news is that it is officially over. Shortly after the post, I decided to move down to $50nl for a bit. I did pretty well, but the main thing was that I felt like I pwned those tables. It helped to restore my confidence and my aggression. So, after a few days I went back to the $100 tables and finally started doing well..playing good, agressive poker. And thankfully, my sets were holding up, I hit a two outter and J2 sooted was da nutz. Life was good again...and I even opened up my game to 14/6 (Even Martin ain't that loose).

I am on a one week break and haven't played a single hand since last Friday. I have to say that the break has been good even though the downswing was over. I need to start up on a new site since PR has shut down for US players. Anyone here got opinons on Full Tilt or Absolute?