Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 10 - A new beginning

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty people. It's the halfway point in the season. +~52 units in my posted bets here with NFL betting.

I'm going to restart now, as my bets have started swinging wildly and I've started to stray from my original advice that I posted in a sticky at the top.

I'm reformulating my unit size here at this point in the season, so take that into account. I didn't want to continually have 2 unit bets down when I should be having 1 unit bets down.

Hopefully, I'm not going to have any crazy 16* plays here or anything else here at this point in the season.

I got my ass handed to me in college football, completely broke the rules of betting and well...damn. So I am going to be making sure I play within my roll here. (think chasing your losses from 200NL by going up to 1000NL and dying as a good analogy - yeah. That bad).

Most of my plays are going to be 1* (hopefully), with my best bets reserved for 3* (usually huge "WTF fade the public" plays like Detroit (and what shoulda been Miami)). 2* plays will be where my pick coincides with that of a really good capper that I respect. 1* plays will be what I think is good value or what another capper thinks has good value (but that I have no opinion on).

So there: I've laid it all out.

NFL, Part II:
0-0 YTD

Let's rock n' roll.

[ensign_lee]

I found these during that great SNF game:

CHI +3 (-121)
2 units at Pinnacle

Will be hitting up the moneyline for this later unless I see a significant portion of the public on this with me. I think Chicago is clearly a better team, even with the hiccup today against Miami.

WAS +7 (-112)
1 units at Pinnacle

7 points in a rivalry game; WAS isn't THAT bad...

SD -1 (-105)
1 unit at Pinnacle

This one I may buy back if the public is on this big, which is a distinct possibility.

[ensign_lee]

Ok. So a good capper's system has identified SD as a play. Line's moved on me, so I won't be able to take SD -1 at (-105), but I'll be able to take -2 (-105), so I'll do it.

I am also looking at San Francisco M/L. Detroit is not good enough to be a 6 point favorite against ANYONE. San Francisco is not THAT bad... I might take the 6 points a little (this will probably climb to +6.5. If I can get +7.5 (doubtful), then I'm all over that).

At +220 or so right now, I find that moneyline quite appetizing.

However, that bet has yet to be placed.

I am also looking at Arizona +7 vs. Dallas. Both teams are imploding here, but I think that Dallas may be imploding just a little bit more. Plus, Arizona has had a week off to cool off and figure out just WTF went wrong the last month or so. 7 points may be a bit much.

[zook]

I like the SD play (just placed a unit at -2, -104 myself) and SF, either points or ML. I think Dallas beats Arizona, but who knows by how much. I like Chicago more now that Strahan's out, but I actually think the Giants are a better team overall. Really don't like the Washington bet, mainly because the Eagles are great after a bye and their season is on the line against a below-average team. GL.

[ensign_lee]

Arizona +7 vs. Dallas (-110)
1 unit at Nine

SF Moneyline vs DET (+220)
2 units at Skybook

SF +3 (1st Half) vs DET (+105)
2 units at Pinnacle

HOU/JAC OVER 37.5 (+107)
1 unit at Pinnacle

BAL/TEN OVER 37.5 (-105)
1 unit at Pinnacle (credit to capper loupicks)

---
I'll keep 'em coming as I get 'em.

[ensign_lee]

Redoubled the Bal/Ten Over for 2 more units (+100 at Bodog)

[ensign_lee]

OUCH...

1 unit on Buffalo M/L vs. the COLTS (+573)
ugh...too many people on the other side...ugh...betting against the Colts...

NE/NYJ OVER 38 (+103.9)
1 unit at Matchbook

ATL/CLE Under 42 (-107.1)
1 unit at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

And in case y'all are wondering what that "ouch" was for, it was me wincing at taking the BUF M/L

[ensign_lee]

One more play:

STL moneyline +137 vs. SEA
1 unit at Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty. I know I made a lot of bets this week, so let's recap them:

CHI +3 (-121) - 2 units
WIN

WAS +7 (-112) - 1 unit
LOSS

SD -1 (-105) and -2 (-104) - 2 units total
WIN - Luckbox win. Whoops. Woohoo!!

SF Moneyline (+220) - 2 units
WIN

SF +3 First Half (+105) - 2 units
WIN

ARI +7 (-110) - 2 units (I put this down wrong earlier; apparently, I put down two units instead of one on the cardinals)
LOSS

HOU/JAC OVER 37.5 (+107) - 1 unit
LOSS

BAL/TEN OVER 37.5 (2 units at +100, 1 unit at -105) - 3 units
WIN

NE/NYJ OVER 38 (+103.9) - 1 unit
LOSS - should have looked at the weather report. Would have played the under for sure if I'd know the field conditions. My bad.

ATL/CLE UNDER 42 (-107.1) - 1 unit
WIN

BUF M/L (+545) - 1 unit
LOSS - Oh so close...17-16, boooh

STL M/L vs. SEA (+137) - 1 unit
LOSS - Knew I should have taken the +4.5 at skybook with the free half point earlier in the week, but NOOOOO. Another dog that covered but didn't win.

[ensign_lee]

Record Update:

YTD: 6-6
Units won: 7.19 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 1-1
-101 to -110: 2-1
+100 to +110: 2-2
+111 to +125: 0-0
+125 to +185: 0-1
+186 to +300: 1-0
+300 onwards: 0-1

1 unit plays: 1-5
2 unit plays: 4-1
3 unit plays: 1-0

~~~
Wow: Those 1 unit plays are uh...kinda sucking. To be fair, though, I had Buffalo M/L at +545 that was one point away from hitting, and St. Louis M/L that also failed, but only by two points. Both these teams covered the spread, which I chose to ignore in favor of the moneyline. D'oh.