50NL kk's in 3bet pot

[mg0698]

Villian was playing pretty tight small sample size was like 12/12/2 over 50 hands

do we stack off here everytime?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($49.50)
UTG ($42.80)
MP ($19.25)
CO ($11.25)
Button ($51.45)
Hero (SB) ($50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K
3 folds, Button raises to $2, Hero raises to $6.50, 1 fold, Button calls $4.50

Flop: ($13.50) J, 10, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, Button raises to $16, Hero ???

[WildBobAA]

Yeah, it's a 3-bet pot and you have an overpair. Put it in, ul if he had a set.

[nutsinho]

fold

[Da GOAT]

lol i knew it, shoving here is awful

[dev]

If he's running 12/12/5, he's gotta have some idea of how to put you on a range. My first instinct is to push, but yeah, gotta go away.

[griffey24]

fold

Can you expand on this please? Mostly because I shove here all day. I feel like tons of hands are raising here, KQ/AQ are probably raising their draws here. AJ/KJ might also raise here to protect against our perceived AK/AQ/KQ type hands.

If 9T/89ss got to this flop, I wouldn't be surprise to see those hands raising here sometimes either, and 99 would definitely raise sometimes.

[Da GOAT]

at this level griff i see them calling flop alot more than minraising

[Gshark]

I'd call. He's going to call a shove. See what hits on the turn. If its a dead card bet high so if he's on a draw he had to really think about what the river is worth to him.

[WildBobAA]

I've seen a lot of people (even some regs) at 50NL raise cbets in a 3-bet pots and then insta fold to a shove.

[griffey24]

at this level griff i see them calling flop alot more than minraising

Yah this could be.. I also just noticed villain is 12/12... hmmm... I'd like a bigger sample size to lay this down though.

[Toadstool]

hmm pretty tight guy, raises button then calls your reraise.

Given the fact that he minraised postflop, i'm not going to give him credit for being that positionally aware that he is going to be flatting a wider range form the button because your range is wider (than usual reraises)

So a (presumably bad) 12/12 raises form the button then flats a reraise we can give him a range of 77+ KQ+

On the flop we can assume he just folds AK/AQ. it's obviously really unlikely he has KK. I'm not going to add So that leaves 88/99/1010/JJ/QQ/AA/AJ/KQ (a lot less likely as you have 2 K's, he often folds pre, and he often flats post)

Against this range you're only good against AJ/QQ, If you flat then his range isn't going to change, you're going to be OOP and facing a bet on the turn, no closer to knowing where you're at than on the flop.

If you reraise, you'll pretty much have to call a shove because of the pot odds. And you'll be doing pretty poorly against his range, when he does shove, and you'll be taking random bluffs and maybe even AJ out of his range too.

So, yeah I don't mind a fold here.

[jjbish]

Any thought in c/r'ing this flop?

Is he only raising with a set here? At 12/12 I dont think Q9 is in his opening range, usually, but JTs, 89s, KQ OTB is.

I see this min raise so often here with a draw and even a hand like AJ here that I can't fold this flop.

I'm not sure shoving is best play, but I definately dont like a fold on the flop. Plan for turn, if played, would be shove or c/r ai any dry turn card.

Given all that. I don't think a fold is bad, and I make it at times too.

[AFchung]

Any thought in c/r'ing this flop?

...

absolutely not.

[mcatdog]

Any thought in c/r'ing this flop?

It's fine against the right opponent who would interpret a check as giving up on a scary board, and bet most of their range. This person is definitely not the right opponent to make this play against, however.

[Outlaw]

Easy shove. I am sure you have 50%+ equity here.

Pot is $38 you have $36 in your stack.. you are already committed as well.

Let me run a pokerstove just for the range that might call a 3bet and then raise you here.

Board: Jh Td 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.608% 61.01% 00.60% 14495 143.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 38.392% 37.79% 00.60% 8979 143.00 { QQ-TT, AJs, AJo }

Even if you take AJ out of his preflop 3bet calling range you still have 44% equity.. and you still need to shove.

[dev]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.872% 59.57% 02.31% 16512 639.00 { 88+ }
Hand 1: 38.128% 35.82% 02.31% 9930 639.00 { KdKs }

I think this is a little more accurate.

[Outlaw]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.872% 59.57% 02.31% 16512 639.00 { 88+ }
Hand 1: 38.128% 35.82% 02.31% 9930 639.00 { KdKs }

I think this is a little more accurate.

I think your range included him having KK/AA.. not likely. But let's say it is 88-KK (although if he's going to flat with 88.. why not AJ-AK?)

Board: Jh Td 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.579% 42.87% 02.71% 9336 591.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 54.421% 51.71% 02.71% 11262 591.00 { KK-88 }

[Galapogos]

In my experience you are cooked here nearly every time.

[griffey24]

All I know is that I'm min-raising here on this flop I have AJ a lot, and am hoping hero does something crazy/spewy.

But if we're folding here specifically cause villain is a nit for life... then I can live with that.

[dev]

I really don't see this guy calling a 3b w/ AJ... then again it is just 50 hands.