Opponent overbet AI on river... fold eveyrtime?

[Phantaroth]

Stage #509739395: Holdem No Limit $1 - 2006-12-05 14:58:38 (ET)
Table: BEN HOGAN AVE (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 3 - SKAMPILI ($199.50 in chips)
Seat 4 - GIBBAN444 ($99.30 in chips)
Seat 5 - DBLACK ($114.10 in chips)
Seat 6 - VOVA06 ($58.35 in chips)
Seat 1 - SUPER_MONKEY ($54.15 in chips)
GIBBAN444 - Posts small blind $0.50
DBLACK - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SUPER_MONKEY [Qc Ac]
VOVA06 - Calls $1
SUPER_MONKEY - Raises $4 to $4
SKAMPILI - Folds
GIBBAN444 - Folds
DBLACK - Folds
VOVA06 - Calls $3
*** FLOP *** [8c 8d Qh]
VOVA06 - Checks
SUPER_MONKEY - Bets $8
VOVA06 - Calls $8
*** TURN *** [8c 8d Qh] [Kc]
VOVA06 - Checks
SUPER_MONKEY - Checks
*** RIVER *** [8c 8d Qh Kc] [Jd]
VOVA06 - All-In $46.35
SUPER_MONKEY - ???

I folded but im curious what you guys think his bet means... he is crushing me almost all the time, right?

[nutsinho]

reload pf

[Miffed22001]

why bet the flop?
Your opp could have AK (at a stretch i admit) or is drawing to 2 outs. Id check the flop and bet the turn controlling the pot size but getting some value from middle pairs etc.

[mcatdog]

why bet the flop?

because he'll get called by terrible hands

[KoRnholio]

why bet the flop?
Your opp could have AK (at a stretch i admit) or is drawing to 2 outs. Id check the flop and bet the turn controlling the pot size but getting some value from middle pairs etc.

His check on the turn controlled the pot size well IMO.

[Halv]

I bet this flop pretty much every time wether I hit it or not.

On this river a fold is very simple. Had we rivered the nut flush or straight we could talk. Right now we have second pair on a very scary board, no need to try and be a hero.

[badape]

Easy fold, if the K did not come on the turn you could've easily call this hand.

With that said, if you're asking me what he has, he prolly has a PP lower than the board, or hit the K on the turn at best. I'd call him if I was in the hand, there are way too many players out there who plays all-in poker and way too little players who are gutsy enough to call an all-in bet out of nowhere.

[Pelion]

against most players Id

Bet flop
check turn
fold to river overbet.

His bet looks like a "shit i missed my checkraise. How do I get value now?"

@Miff: Checking the flop to get value from middle pairs here is silly since this is exactly the kind of flop people like to float on anyway.

[Phantaroth]

I bet the flop decently hard because that is what I'd do if im going to try and get a fold on this board. My goal is for him to say "Hmmm.. if he had a Q would he try and push me out, or is he just trying to buy the pot?". I checked the turn because at that point, he may have an 8, may have just hit a K, and I just picked up the nut flush draw. I get to see the river for free and if he does have a big hand he can't check raise me on the turn...

River I don't think I can call, but I wanted to. I don't think I'm winning anywhere near enough to call, and luckily the pot is decent, but not too big that i have to call.