ensign_lee's NCAA Bowls

[ensign_lee]

Before I start, let me tell you that I have done horribly in NCAA football this year. I did all the stuff 'off the board', and got completely dominated. I think I lost more than half my profits in the NFL trying to master NCAA football.

But I'm willing to give it one more shot before I give up on it completely. Here goes... ?

I'm starting off tailing a handicapper that I respect:

Texas A&M +5 (-110)
3 units at Skybook

Texas A&M Moneyline (+180)
2 units at Nine

I'm sure BigSpenda likes this bet.

For the rest of the bowl season, I'm going to be taking dogs of +7 or more if the public is heavy on the other side and especially if the dog 'has more to play for.'

This is an angle developed by another handicapper. It basically goes that strong teams that are favored because of their talent level that go to a 'crappy bowl game' will be unmotivated and thus will get beaten (and obviously not cover) by a weaker, but much more motivated team. I mean, if your team was contending for a national championship at the start of the year, but later was invited to the 'insert crappy name' bowl instead because you were out of contention, just how hard would you practice?

I'll be taking the dogs on the spread and on the moneyline. I think the spread factors into NCAA football games more than other games, but I think these underdogs will still warrant a moneyline play.

For how I will weight the units for my plays, here ya go. This assumes that the bet qualified already (and is already a 1 unit play on both the spread and moneyline):

Respected Handicapper posts as a play: Add 1 unit to spread
Public is opposite the bet at 70+%: Add 1 unit to Spread
Pinny Lean: Add 1 unit to spread
Pinny has the worst moneyline price on the underdog of most 'common' books: Add 1 unit to moneyline
Reverse Line Movement: For every half point of reverse line movement, either add 1 unit to spread or 1/2 unit to moneyline (my discretion)

[bigspenda73]

WHOOOOOOOOOOP

You know it son. I like your reasoning and I like the fact that the Aggies have stopped 3 good offenses (OU, NEB, TU) their last 3 games. This team could easily have been in the BIG 12 title game w/ any luck. This is a team that is 9-3 with their three losses by a combined 6 points. Of course, we have a tendency to lay huge effin eggs in bowl games.

Gig'em Lee

Ill be riding your picks throughout the bowl season

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty. One bet up tonight:

Middle Tennessee State +7.5 (+106.8)
3 units at Matchbook

Middle Tennessee State Moneyline (+303.8)
1 unit at Matchbook

The public is on Central Michigan at around 70 to 80%, depending on your site for info. I'll average that and get to 75%. This is what made me look at this game initially.

Then, there was the reverse line movement. Pinnacle opened the game at +10. TheGreek opened it at +11.5, then promptly switched to +11. BetCris opened it at +11m then switched it to +10.5 after a little bit. These are the three offshore books that 'make the line', with BetCris always acceding to the opinions of others, and Pinnacle and theGreek fighting for who gets to be 'the one whose lines stay put.' TheGreek wins a little bit more than Pinnacle.

So...I took the initial line to be +10.5, after averaging them all. Line is now at +8 (as a widely available line). That equates to a 2.5 point reverse line move. Now, normally I'm all over line moves this big, but Bowls are a little bit of a different animal as the lines get released SOOOO early. However, I do plan on making it a factor in the size of my bets.

2.5 points of reverse line movement = +3 units on the spread (1.5 points reverse line movement) and +1 unit on the moneyline (1 point reverse line movement).

What's wierd about this game is that NOBODY I've seen (except for like one guy) has picked Middle Tennessee State, including some NCAA football cappers that I respect. They are either on Central Michigan or are staying away from the game. THEN WHO THE HELL IS MAKING THE LINE MOVE THE WAY IT IS?!?!

However, because two cappers are on the other side, I've reduced the amount on the spread by 1 unit. So 1 + 3 - 1 = 3 units on the spread.

Here's hoping Bowl season repeats itself with dogs covering (and winning) after Christmas in a big way.

[ensign_lee]

Ok. So maybe that reverse line movement wasn't ALL reverse line movement. I assumed that the HC of Central Michigan had left BEFORE they created this line, but maybe that's not true.

I'm going to try to buy back my spread bet on Middle Tennessee State by 1 unit by gametime. Let's see if it works.

If you havent' placed your bet yet, I'd recommend reducing the size of your wager.

[ensign_lee]

Success! I'm now only got 2 units on Middle Tennessee State. I'm comfortable with that. GO MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE!

(I know; I don't think I'd ever heard them either before either. Way to go Bowl system. )

[ensign_lee]

First bet out of the gates went down in flames, but then what else is new with ensign_lee and NCAA football...

I've decided to readjust the way I increase my units according to reverse line moves beacuse of the fact that line moves are so much more prevalent with the bowl games. Instead of adjusting it for every half point of reverse line movement, I'll hit it up for every point of reverse line movement. If there happens to be 1.5 or 2.5 point line moves, then I'll obviously use my discretion.

But record for Bowls:
YTD: 0-2
Units Won: -3.00

[ensign_lee]

[b]Florida State Moneyline (+142)
2 units at Skybook

Florida State +4 (-115)
3 units at Skybook

Pinnacle wants NO ACTION WHATSOEVER on Florida state. They're currently holding a -3 (-113), which is the best price you could possible get on UCLA with everyone else holding -3.5 (-110) or -3.5 (-115). They're offering you the free half point from 3.5 to 3 (WHICH IS FREAKING HUGE IN FOOTBALL) for a mere 3 to 8 cents, depending on your book.

WOW...Now, I speak of Pinny leans, but this is a Pinny BET (they don't happen very often). This is Pinny wanting all the money it can get on FSU +3 (+113) from its customers.

This is good enough to warrant the plays above. DAMN!!!

[bigspenda73]

WOOOOOOOOT

HOLLA AT YA BOY

[ensign_lee]

First, DON'T JINX MY BETS!!! But should it come through, thanks.

Although this game was a LOT closer than the score indicates. If Carr gets called for offensive pass interference on his TD (and it's at least 50/50 that he should have), then this game goes on an entirely different note.

Still nice to have a winning feeling again in NCAA football, though.

[bigspenda73]

Please, 50/50 chance that is actually WAS PI. Add that to the 2% of the time it gets called in football and you have about a 1 in 100 chance. Pretty accurate number if you ask me.

Also, don't think I am a big enough jinx to make a team leading by 17 lose with 90 seconds to go.

[ensign_lee]

Hey, it could happen.

But congrats to us today. First time the public has lost so far in the bowl games. Here's hoping that fading the public is profitable this bowl season.

[ShortStacked]

Good call ensign_lee! Your really starting to scare me on the rate you call games.

[ensign_lee]

Thanks shortstacked. But don't crown me just yet. I seem to recall a 40-50 bet streak where I picked an abysmal 15-20% or so.

And remember: college football has, for the most part, owned me this year.

[ensign_lee]

Record Update:
YTD: 2-2
Units Won: 2.84

For tonight, I have the A&M game in play and am also adding the following bet.

Oklahoma State -2.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
One of the cappers that I respect posted this as one of his bigger bowl plays. He's been pretty good with them lately, so I'm going to ride with him, at least for one unit.

[bigspenda73]

Yea, the A&M line is moving the wrong way!! Down to Cal -3

What the hell is this about. The money is pretty even from what I can see.

[ensign_lee]

Haha. Bigspenda. Sometimes line moves are just that; line moves.

It's not moving the 'wrong' or 'right' way; just that money (not necessarily BETS) is coming in on the aggies.

[bigspenda73]

Ok, Im staying off this game anyways

[ensign_lee]

Yeah. Your aggies kinda sucked, but well, I think I am now 0-7 or something betting on games involving the Aggies. Y'all just hate me, don't ya?

Allrighty: one bet for tomorrow.

Iowa +9 (-103.06)
5 units at Matchbook

I thought about hitting the M/L but I just can't do it against my 'horns. I toges against every fiber of my being, even though lots of signs point towards an Iowa bet here.

1) Texas has either an injured QB for this game or no QB at all. Backup transferred. :/
2) Texas was contending for the national championship this time last year, and the mindset this year was National Championship again. I can't see the players practicing hard for this one
3) Dogs of 7+ or more are supposed to hold their own more often than not in bowl games (but then again past performance is no indicator of future success)
4) 2.5 to 3 points reverse line movement. You can either count the original line as -11 or -11.5, depending on your book. And you can count the line currently as -8.5 or -9, depending on your book. Pinnacle is currently holding the -8.5, so I'm counting that, and I'm counting the -11 sinec theGreek came out with it at that and looks like the bother books adjusted to their line. Public is on Texas at around 70+%

At any rate, this is good enough to warrant a 5 unit bet against my team. Hopefully Texas wins by 7 and I can emotionally 'middle' the game?

[ensign_lee]

I can't stand rooting against my team, especially with that classless move by Drew Tate, throwing our horns down. Fuck him...

Offsetting the Iowa +9 (-103.06) 5 unit bet with a bet on Texas -9.5 (+368) for 2 units.

Here are the scenarios:

Iowa covers +9 : +3.00 units
Texas covers -9.5: +219.69 units
Texas wins by exactly 9: I cry and lose 7.15 units. But I have vindication against Iowa.

[ensign_lee]

Correction:

Should Texas win by exactly 9, I lose 2 units. +9 would push.

[ensign_lee]

Nebraska Moneyline (+108.78)
3 units

70% of the public is on Auburn, yet the line shifted from AUburn -3 to Auburn -1. The jump from -3 to -2.5 is significant in and of itself. THe fact that it fell another full point after that is crazy.

3 units on this bet.

ON a side note; I am freaking tired. But woooooh! Texas wins (but Iowa covers ), Texans win!!! Rockets Win!!! I have been doing nothing but jumping up and down and yleling for like 2 straight days. I am tired.