Operation Don't be a sucker

[bigspenda73]

After reading a lot of Lee's posts about fading the public and betting with the sportsbooks I've placed these wagers today. On all of these bets the public is at least 66% on the opposite team and the line has either not moved or has moved the wrong way.

**Every bet here is to win 1 unit

Pittsburgh M/L vs. Baltimore (+125)
If I was going to take the +3 the juice would have been (-125). WTH? The money is on Balt and yet they want more of it on the Ravens.

Buffalo +3 vs Jacksonville (-105)
Another case of the public heavily favoring the Jags and the line opened at 3 and stayed there

Cleveland +3 vs. Cincinnati (+100)
Yea, no juice. Cannot tell you how much the public is all over the Bengals, it is ridiculous. I might M/L this one before game time.

That's it for now, I'll probably add more late as more and more money goes on the teams.

[ensign_lee]

Hey, bigspenda.

Careful on that Baltimore bet. Most places I'm seeing even action on that game. And wagerline only shows about 61% or so on Baltimore, which I don't usually give THAT much weight to.

So if you're doing that bet on blind faith fading hte public, the criteria really just doesn't fit.

[bigspenda73]

Well shoot, ya know, for some reason I still believed in the Steelers, boy was I wrong.

All in all I like this thought process pertaining to betting I just think I picked the poorest matchups. I stayed away from the two biggest games which exemplified this (Car and NYG) and that snakebit me. All in all, betting the highly unfavored dogs wasn't too bad of a bet today. I think Im going to try this again next weekend and I'll update it then

YTD
1-2
-1 Unit

[bigspenda73]

OK, 1st Pick for wk 13

Buffalo +6 vs. San Diedo~1 unit

I really like this and I will probably m/l this game when it comes out. Public is going to be all over San Diego and I just dont think they can travel to the East Coast and play a 1 PM EST game and win in the cold. I think this line could move up throughout the week but Im willing to take it at +6 now.

[bigspenda73]

Well, I don't want to past post but I'll still show what I did today

All bets were to win 1 unit

Buffalo +6 (-110)
Buffalo m/l +230

Cleveland +3 (-110)
Cleveland M/L +170

Houston +3 (-110)
Houston M/L +160

Minnesota +9 (-110)
Minn M/L +400

SanFrancisco M/L
Atlanta M/L +110

Well, all in all a good day, wish I had jumped on Tenn and Detroit, dogs had a good day.

[bigspenda73]

OK, I changed the name of this thread b/c I think this describes my picks perfectly. I will not bet w/ the public ever again. From the first two weeks I have come up with a formula I like.

First, I will look at the public's votes. It the public is more than 2:1 on a given game I will give it strong consideration.

Edit: I will only fade the public's opinion if the books' line moves do not make sense. For ex: all the money goes on a favorite at a 3:1 clip and the spread decreases. That would be one of Lee's WTF? picks

Second, if the public is ever 2:1 on a road favorite I will take the home dog big.

Third, I will bet M/L in the range of +125 to +350, no lower, no higher. If the M/l is under +125 Im probably taking the spread and if its higher than +350 I just don't think there is much value.

Fourth, I will try to stay away from road dogs who have a high likelihood of getting blown the F out. Take SF last week for example, a game where SF probably squeeks by and pulls an upset or a game where NO clicks and blows them out. I have much less fear about a home dog getting blown out than a road dog.

Finally, I will probably only pick 3-4 NFL games a week. Truth be told, it will probably hard enough to find games that fit all of these criteria but I am going to try.

[bigspenda73]

OK, first game I look at and I see this OAK+10.5

OAK has a history of covering these big numbers this year. Also, the public is betting CIN at nearly a 3:1 clip. All in all that makes for a good pick in my criteria. I will not place the pick yet, I will study the line moves; however, I cannot see the books moving this line up therefore it may be a bit misleading if the line stays the same or moves down.

[bigspenda73]

Also looking at these home dogs

Jacksonville
Tampa Bay
Miami

[ensign_lee]

OK, first game I look at and I see this OAK+10.5

OAK has a history of covering these big numbers this year. Also, the public is betting CIN at nearly a 3:1 clip. All in all that makes for a good pick in my criteria. I will not place the pick yet, I will study the line moves; however, I cannot see the books moving this line up therefore it may be a bit misleading if the line stays the same or moves down.

Eh hem. Dogs that have a high likelihood of getting blown out?

Of course, teh Bengals lost straight up as 10 pt favorites at home to try and clinch a bye week last year, so maybe you're on the right track. Just giving you more info to make decision on.

[bigspenda73]

Yea, I think I might stay off this game unless the line moves the wrong way. Looking at in Cincy has so much more to play for than OAK but teams love playing the spoiler, and OAK is used to playing this role.

[bigspenda73]

Just giving you more info to make decision on.

Always appreciated

[bigspenda73]

ALRIGHT

2 picks for Tonight

PIT/CLE under 34.5~1 unit
CLE +7 (-110)~1 unit

I really like the first one and am not sure about the Cleveland pick. There has really been nothing special about the picks and/or line movement. I think this Anderson kid could be something special and PIT is missing some playmakers. Guess we'll see...

[ensign_lee]

Just so you know, that CLE +7 bet would not fall under 'don't be a sucker.' This line looks about as close to even action as you're going to get.

[bigspenda73]

Yep

1-1 on the night. I knew the CLE pick was about dead even, however I have this new theory that if I am going to take the under in a game then I am going to side with the underdog as well. Well, I hit the under but the favorite still won by a ton. Oh well, there's always Sunday.

[bigspenda73]

Well, here is what I am now looking at for this weekend

OAK +10.5
OAK m/l

GB +4
GB m/l

MIA +3.5
MIA m/l

DEN+7
DEN m/l

STL +6
STL M/l

Ill have to decide on these as well as some totals come Sunday morning.
The totals I am perusing:

GB/SF over 44.5
4:1 money on the under and the line moves from 44 to 44.5

DEN/SD under 41.5
3:1 money on the over and the line goes from 42 to 41.5

That's all for now, I'll update Sunday morning.

[ensign_lee]

Like the Denver and St. Louis picks. Denver, because I believe they can still win straight up, and St. Louis because well...everyone's on the bears. Not too much action on SD to really warrant a trap play there, though, is there?

Not sure if I'm comfortable taking Miami at home against NE, but well, anything can happen, I guess. I just don't like betting against the Patriots.

Surprised to see that Jacksonville didn't make your list. I figured that was a huge example of public perception vs. sharp perception, especially with the reverse line movement and the 70% of action on Indy. Why is that?

And what about Tennessee at Houston? 75% of action on Tennessee? Hmm...

Damn, I wish I could be at that game; damn finals. GO TEXANS!!!

[bigspenda73]

Two things

1. Forgot all about the Jags
2. The money is all over Tenn true, however, the line moved in the right way taking Hou from -2.5 to -1 and what i assume will be a pick'em by gametime. Also, Tennessee is playing well and Vince is gonna be huge in Houston.

[bigspenda73]

SO.MUCH.MONEY.ON.FAVORITES.

damn, and road favorites too. I think there are a ton of games that can fit my criteria this week meaning I'll probably be making a lot of plays come tomorrow morning.

Here is what I am thinking:

Atl -3@TB
Sportsbook.com shows 88% of the public money on ATL, wagerline.com shows 75% of it on ATL. What does the line do? Uhh....aboslutelty nothing. HUGE RED FLAG for me, I'll probably take TB+3 and M/l +155.

Tenn+1@HOU
Another play where it looks like there are 3 bets on TEN for every bet on my Texans. However, this line has moved in the right direction, taking Tenn from a 2.5 dog to only a 1 point dog. I really think the books are still trying to attract money on the Titants. I can probably get HOU M/l at +100 or 105.

SEA-3@AZ
Just another system play with 2 bets on SEA for every 1 on AZ. Line has gone from -3.5 to -3? WTF? Chris if you're looking at this (you just posted in another thread) this is an example of reverse line movement. Money on the favorite yet the spread decreases. I might pull the trigger now before the books get dumb and move it to -2.5.

INDY-1@Jacksonville
75% of the public on the Colts, line goes down, another WTF. Goooo Jags!!

NE@MIA
Im going to stay off of this one, the whole "change of getting blown the F out thing"

CHI-6@STL
Another play where the betting is 3:1 in favor or CHI and the line doesn't move.

I'll probably bet the Bills and GB before it's over as well however I am skeptical of these road dogs w/out much to play for.

Totals I am looking at:
SEA/AZ under 45 -system play

[bigspenda73]

Well, so far so bad today....

Let me recap my bets

OAK +10.5--Lost
Oak M/l--Lost

Jack Ev-Won

TB +3.5--lost
TB m/l--lost

Hou -1-Lost

AZ +3-Won
AZ m/l-won

BUF +3.5-Won
BUF m/l-won

2 oh so close parlays(1 unit each)

JAC -1
TB +3.5
MIA m/l
AZ m/l

and

MIA m/l
AZ m/l
TB m/l

As you can see, I really thought TB would win and they looked good until that Gradfumblerooski for a TD. Anyways, I ended up 1 unit down but it could've been a huge day had TB covered. I think I'll still play STL+6 tomorrow night and the m/l, if I hit both I'll bet up for the week.

Oh yea, still kicking myself for not playing these (and not just saying this, I totally spaced)

MIA spread and M/l
--as you can see from my parlays I wanted to play this, just forgot

GB spread and M/l
good system play and I just didn't trust it

Oh well...I need to make sure I bet all the games I view as having an edge on to make sure I magnify this edge, had I bet these games I would have had a really good week.

[bigspenda73]

2 plays for tonight

STL+6 -110~1 unit
STL M/l +230

It fits my criteria and I like a home dog in a track meet on the turf. CHI just clinched the division last week and Im hoping that means they are overlooking this game or just apathetic towards it in general.

Here's hoping Grossman plays the whole game

[bigspenda73]

Don't wanna past post picks but I did AWESOME on TNF. I placed these 3 just before gametime, they weren't system picks so I didn't want to put them in here but since it's effected my YTD results I'll post em

SF +9.5 (-110)~1 unit
SF/SEA Under 39 (-110)~1 unit
SF m/l +410~1 unit

Therefore I won just over 6 units. Woooohooooo

The only play that was near a system play was the under. Money all over the over at atleast a 2:1 clip but the line was plummeting. Well, it was more so the weather but the dumb fucking public kept betting the over later in the day not realizing the weather. That pushed it down even further, I think moving it nearly 6-7 pts in 1 day. Anyways, props to Zook for making me believe in SF tonight

[zook]

Nice hits bigspenda!! This thread deserves a

[bigspenda73]

Alright, I see some plays for the rest of the week.

Saturday Night
ATL +3.5

wagerline has money on Dallas at a 3:2 clip and sportbook has it at a 3:1 clip. Sometimes I wonder how exact these sites are. Anyways, home team fighting for the playoff lives getting more than a field goal against an exploited secondary....sounds nice.

Sunday
JESUS H CHRIST, ONLY 2 HOME DOGS....well, damn. Guess I'll have to bet a favorite or two this weekend. Right now this is all I see:

AZ +3 vs. DEN
This will have to be a total system play as I don't see how AZ is supposed to score on Denver. I dunno, money coming it at a 2:1 clip on Denver but the line did more from 2.5 to 3.

CHI/TB under 33.5
Why wont this line move? There is so much money on the over it is ridiculous. I easily see this game being like 21-3.

That's all for now, I'll let the lines move before I post again.

[ensign_lee]

Alright, I see some plays for the rest of the week.

Saturday Night
ATL +3.5

wagerline has money on Dallas at a 3:2 clip and sportbook has it at a 3:1 clip. Sometimes I wonder how exact these sites are. Anyways, home team fighting for the playoff lives getting more than a field goal against an exploited secondary....sounds nice.

Sunday
JESUS H CHRIST, ONLY 2 HOME DOGS....well, damn. Guess I'll have to bet a favorite or two this weekend. Right now this is all I see:

AZ +3 vs. DEN
This will have to be a total system play as I don't see how AZ is supposed to score on Denver. I dunno, money coming it at a 2:1 clip on Denver but the line did more from 2.5 to 3.

CHI/TB under 33.5
Why wont this line move? There is so much money on the over it is ridiculous. I easily see this game being like 21-3.

That's all for now, I'll let the lines move before I post again.

Sportsbook.com is suppsoed to use the data on their site, but that's not necessarily a representative sample of the entir epopulation as a whole. Wagerline is just people placing bets 'for fun'; however, I believe that they present an accurate sample for the general public, so I follow what the ysay.

Make sure you know what these numbers are based off of before you go blindly believing in them.

[bigspenda73]

Hey! Get back to studying...

Oh yea, thanks again for the heads up and is there anywhere else to gain this info?

[ensign_lee]

Not fair!

Tell me to go back to studying while asking me a question...

I also use sportsinishgts (for now). Still testing them out. Suppsedly, they get the actual data from all the major sportsbooks, so you don' teven need to worry about the representative smaple; you've got hte entire freaking population. I sometimes doubt their numbres, though.

[bigspenda73]

Well thanks to Lee I added a unit to my bankroll today with his wtf? Gonzaga vs. Georgia CBB play. Pretty easy to spot had I been looking at those lines today. All the money on the Zags and somehow the line crosses the zero to GA -1. It's got me thinking that with all of the game in CBB that it is easy to find 1 or 2 exploitable lines every once in a while.

[bigspenda73]

Dodged a bullet by not getting my ATL play in at the right time. Guess it was a good thing that I got held up at work

I am not seeing many good plays, a lot of them are being cancelled out by the.."road dogs having a chance to get blown the F out" rule.

Here are some plays I am looking at:

WAS+9.5 @NO
Well, I hate the fact that this is at the Superdome....BUT it looks so fishy, money is pouring in on the Saints and the line won't move. Ehh, I'll probably wuss out on this one unless the line moves down somehow

OAK -2.5 vs STL
Ladies and gentlemen, we have reverse line movement. Sound the alarms, let the bells go off. Money is on STL at a 2:1 clip and the line goes from -2 to -2.5. That's a big WTF a probably warrants a 2-3 unit play. Think Im gonna take it now in case the oddsmakers want to take it to -3.

TB/CHI UNDER 34
System play, money at a 3:1 clip on the over and it barely budges .5pt. I don't like the fact that CHI could roll it up on TB but I don't see CHI scoring 35 pts and I think they shut out TB tomorrow.

CIN/INDY OVER 54.5
Public is all over the over but the line does move up 2.5pts which it should. Last year these two teams hit this line midway thru the 2nd qtr. Lets hope for more of the same this year.

GB/DET OVER 44
Same ol same ol, public betting the under and of course the line won't move.

PHI/NYG UNDER 43.5
See all above posts

That's it for now, I don't necessarily like betting totals but there isn't much of an edge on the matchups tomorrow.

[bigspenda73]

Sitting at work this morning and I see the line on the Houston/NE game has moved...IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. WTF? 80% of money on NE and the line goes from -11.5 to -11. That's right, laying the house on my boyz. Looks like I am going to have 3-4 good plays today. Let's hope for a good one.

[bigspenda73]

Hah, I misclick goot

I need to stop making bets so early in the morning as I was half asleep and didn't realize I picked the under in the GB/
DET game. Had I realized this prior to gametime would have just ate the juice. Fortunately I got lucky

I ended this morning 3-2 up a unit so not too bad. I missed some value not m/l the Redskins and not betting TB, but hey, I thought these games could both have been huge blowouts.

[ensign_lee]

I don't what to do with myself, bigspenda.

I just watched my team get ABSOLUTELY DEMOLISHED... I think teh Patriots average starting field position was on our 30. WTF!??!!

[bigspenda73]

I think that has to be one of the worst games I've ever seen. On top of it I have to watch Vince go to 7-2 as a starter (not that he did much today). My afternoon games are looking sketchy at best so here's hoping I can go 1-2 a push the day. YAY Cardinals?

[ensign_lee]

You got to SEE it? I hate you. Austin decided to show OTHER games. I hate that Austin has become Titanland.

[bigspenda73]

Yea, Vegas sportsbooks, you know how we do. God dang Im doing bad this afternoon, pray for me to hit the PHI under to break even (minus juice) for the day.

[bigspenda73]

Well I have been looking at all the lines but I won't make my picks until tomorrow morning. There are some home dogs out there with no money on em...looks like that's where I'll be at. Waiting for Lee to tell me that he was wrong about the KC line so I can go ahead and bet the Raiders(?). Sucks to bet them but they are decent ATS and they are a home touchdown dog and 4:1 money is on KC. Wish me luck

[bigspenda73]

BUF -3 1st half
TEN m/l
Det +6
Det m/l
HOU+9
NE m/l
BAL +3
BAL m/l

[zook]

Good luck today bigspenda. You gonna thank me from keeping you off that Raiders bet or what?!?!

[bigspenda73]

Good luck today bigspenda. You gonna thank me from keeping you off that Raiders bet or what?!?!

Thanks Zook! Actually, Id still bet the Raiders, they really had a quite a chance to cover.

I added 2 more units to the NE M/l
--Maroney is back and Fred Taylor is out

Got about 10 units in play today!!

[zook]

Thanks Zook! Actually, Id still bet the Raiders, they really had a quite a chance to cover.

I'll take that bet

Got about 10 units in play today!!

BOL. Hopefully some of your M/L dogs will hit!

[bigspenda73]

BUF -3 1st half LOSE
TEN m/l WIN
Det +6 FORGOT TO BET!!!
Det m/l LOSE
HOU+9 WIN
NE m/l WIN
BAL +3 WIN
BAL m/l WIN

I added 2 more units to the NE M/l WIN
--Maroney is back and Fred Taylor is out

Got about 10 units in play today!!

YAY!! +7.5 units on the day. No plays for the rest of the day

[zook]

Nice day bigspenda!

[ensign_lee]

Looks like you're the one who did REALLY well today. Good job bigspenda!

[bigspenda73]

Yea yea yea...too bad it's a woulda coulda shoulda day. Dogs did great today and I am kicking myself for 3 bets.

Buf 1st half bet
--really hoping this game would take this line of every one of TEN games, down in the 1st half, win it in the second.

HOU m/l
plain and simple forgot to bet it. Think it was at +350

DET +6
somehow I failed to place this bet....damnit

[zook]

Come on bigspenda... if you can't enjoy a +7.5 unit day, you should stop gambling

[bigspenda73]

Honestly I did enjoy it yesterday. However, I keep abandoning my rules because games like HOU m/l just do not seem practical to me. Well, it has come back to bite me in the ass numerous times over the last 3 weeks and I guees this week was another fine example.

BUT HEY!! This was by far my best NFL week ever so BIG UPS to me. Like you Jets picks, might piggyback ya.

[bigspenda73]

Well I've bet the last two bowl games with mixed success. Overall I am down .5 unit from losing both the spread and m/l of the Midle Tenessee State game and from wining the m/l on a 2 unit bet of the FSU game.


This is what I am looking at for the NFL this weekend:

WAS(+2.5)vs. NYG
The bets (thanks for clarification Lee) are on the Giants at a 3:1 clip. Typically you would think the team battling for their playoff lives would WANT to win. HOWEVER, this is not the case. This team hates Tom Coughlin and will do their best to make this the last game he ever coaches. Just think, they win this game they have to put up with him for at least another week. They do not want this, he does not want this, therefore I want this Add the fact that the line has not budged and you get my first pick of the week.

MIA (+9)vs. INDY
I expect the public to be all over this one by gametime. They just LOVE the Colts. Let's look into this game further though. Two things the Dolphins do that I like:
1) They really get after the quarterback well
2) They do not quit
Number 1 is important as far as actual gameplay goes and #2 is important b/c if I am betting a road dog I do not want them to just lay down on me. I also like Ronnie Brown back in the lineup against the rush defense of the Colts. The big spreads do not match well with Indy seeing how teams are willing to run on them so much which shortens the game. On top of this, MIA QB problem continues which will lead them to favor the run even more. This line will not move to 10 so I'll probably play MIA and the m/l.

BIG PLAY OF THE WEEK
MIN+2 vs. STL
Well, looks like the public is all over STL causing them to become LESS of a favorite. That qualifies as a WTF pick in my book. I'll probably just take the m/l as 2 is a dead number in the NFL. This could be a 5 unit play which is huge for me seeing how my units=4% of my BR.

That's it for now, hopefully I will find some more exploitable lines later in the week.

[zook]

I like these spenda. Probably staying away from Was/NY, but I'll think about. Really like Miami though... you're right that 1) the public LOVES Indy and 2) Ronnie Brown will run roughshod over the Colts D. I'll add that Miami's rookie QB didn't look bad at all on Monday night, despite horrible weather.

Minny is tough since the Rams have something to play for and they don't, but I'm starting to think that these games aren't as easy to call as I used to make them. Teams with nothing to lose are dangerous too.

[ensign_lee]

Careful going crazy Week 17 of the NFL. WAAAAAY to unpredictable for me to warrant big NFL bets for me. I'm not letting any of my bets go beyond 2 units this week.

However, good reasoning for Minnesota. Good luck in whatever you do.

[bigspenda73]

Yea, I have heard about the follies of week 17. I think there are so many factors influencing games:

1. Teams motivation
2. Teams motivation
3. Teams motivation

OK, so there is only 1 real factor, however, it is tough to discern. Take NYG vs WAS for example. Above I post that the Giants dont even want to make the playoffs, but do the Redskins really even care? Every sharp I have seen is taking the Redskins and the public is all over the Giants. The line won't budge probably b/c all of the small money is on NY yet all of the large sharp bets are on WAS. Im gonna research a bit tonight.