JJ 50NL hand

[jdubs]

thoughts? I had just joined the table... no reads really, I'm not sure about my flop reraise... but I also couldnt see folding here to his flop raise.






PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($45.90)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($108.05)
MP1 ($39.95)
MP2 ($47.50)
CO ($135.20)
Button ($47.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J.
3 folds, CO raises to $2.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($5.25) 8, T, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.5, CO raises to $25, Hero raises to $47.5, CO calls $22.50.

Turn: ($100.25) Q (2 players)

River: ($100.25) 5 (2 players)

Final Pot: $100.25

[Turska]

I think it is fine. You have overpair and strong draw.

I cannot fold in situation like this so easy push. Nh

[bode]

nh. this is pretty standard with an overpair + strong draw + FE

[AHiltz]

I'd hit it

[Da GOAT]

nh. this is pretty standard with an overpair + strong draw + FE

i dont think we have alot of FE given opp has put in about half his stack on flop RR. still shove but expect to be behind on flop

[martindcx1e]

nh. this is pretty standard with an overpair + strong draw + FE

i dont think we have alot of FE given opp has put in about half his stack on flop RR. still shove but expect to be behind on flop

ya we have like 0 FE. it's not 1/2 of his stack (villain has $135), but he isn't folding.

[Da GOAT]

nh. this is pretty standard with an overpair + strong draw + FE

i dont think we have alot of FE given opp has put in about half his stack on flop RR. still shove but expect to be behind on flop

ya we have like 0 FE. it's not 1/2 of his stack (villain has $135), but he isn't folding.

misread

martin you shoving too?

[martindcx1e]

nh. this is pretty standard with an overpair + strong draw + FE

i dont think we have alot of FE given opp has put in about half his stack on flop RR. still shove but expect to be behind on flop

ya we have like 0 FE. it's not 1/2 of his stack (villain has $135), but he isn't folding.

misread

martin you shoving too?

i really hate these hands. i think they look prettier than they are. i def think we are behind here. our best case scenario against a made hand (barring a ridiculous hand like AT) i guess would be vs. 2 pair (unlikely). if villain has an overpair (likely) we have 10 outs (unless he has QQ). that's not looking too good to me as it's pretty much just like stacking off on a flush draw (9 outs). so to recap we have no FE and are most likely drawing to 10 outs (8 to win and 2 to tie if he has QQ) for our stack, and there's no dead money in the pot. we've only spent $7 of our original $50 so far. i don't like it.

to all those saying to shove...what range are you putting villain on?

[Miffed22001]

we have ten outs unless he flopped the absolute nuts, and im not convinced the flopped nuts would play like this hence considering opps range i think we push assuming we have those ten live outs

[martindcx1e]

we have ten outs unless he flopped the absolute nuts, and im not convinced the flopped nuts would play like this hence considering opps range i think we push assuming we have those ten live outs

i don't see why we are pushing with 10 outs (at the most) with 0 FE and no dead money?

[zook]

I'm with martin. I used to make this kind of play all the time and have come to the conclusion that it's terrible. We're risking $43 to win $50.25 (not counting rake) so we're getting pot odds of 1.16:1. I think fold equity is virutally zero, but if someone disagrees I'll do an EV calculation. I don't think it will make a difference. Let's see how we do against villain's range:

Board: 8h 9s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.244% 32.66% 00.58% 8730 156.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 66.756% 66.17% 00.58% 17688 156.00 { QQ+, TT-88 }

Pretty poorly, even discounting the possibility of QJ. Only if you throw in a pure bluff, like AK, does this become a good play. Fold.

[martindcx1e]

I'm with martin. I used to make this kind of play all the time and have come to the conclusion that it's terrible. We're risking $43 to win $50.25 (not counting rake) so we're getting pot odds of 1.16:1. I think fold equity is virutally zero, but if someone disagrees I'll do an EV calculation. I don't think it will make a difference. Let's see how we do against villain's range:

Board: 8h 9s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.244% 32.66% 00.58% 8730 156.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 66.756% 66.17% 00.58% 17688 156.00 { QQ+, TT-88 }

Pretty poorly, even discounting the possibility of QJ. Only if you throw in a pure bluff, like AK, does this become a good play. Fold.

I zook

Also...

still shove but expect to be behind on flop

If you think you're behind then why shove?

[jdubs]

I'm with martin. I used to make this kind of play all the time and have come to the conclusion that it's terrible. We're risking $43 to win $50.25 (not counting rake) so we're getting pot odds of 1.16:1. I think fold equity is virutally zero, but if someone disagrees I'll do an EV calculation. I don't think it will make a difference. Let's see how we do against villain's range:

Board: 8h 9s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.244% 32.66% 00.58% 8730 156.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 66.756% 66.17% 00.58% 17688 156.00 { QQ+, TT-88 }

Pretty poorly, even discounting the possibility of QJ. Only if you throw in a pure bluff, like AK, does this become a good play. Fold.

I don't know if I agree with this range. It's like you're assuming his entire range is a monster hand. I think we have to include a few more hands that could make this move: 77, AJ, even the AK bluff, and QJ of course. Also AT(TPTK), 89, 9-10 (2p)..I still cant see folding here - I think this range is reasonable (below) and the numbers look decent enough for me to push over with :

Board: 8h Td 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.044% 51.67% 02.37% 291597 13375.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 45.956% 43.59% 02.37% 245952 13375.50 { QQ+, TT-77, AKs, AJs-ATs, QJs, T9s, 98s, AKo, AJo-ATo, QJo, T9o, 98o }


ps. my 666th post .... yikes



---

[martindcx1e]

I'm with martin. I used to make this kind of play all the time and have come to the conclusion that it's terrible. We're risking $43 to win $50.25 (not counting rake) so we're getting pot odds of 1.16:1. I think fold equity is virutally zero, but if someone disagrees I'll do an EV calculation. I don't think it will make a difference. Let's see how we do against villain's range:

Board: 8h 9s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.244% 32.66% 00.58% 8730 156.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 66.756% 66.17% 00.58% 17688 156.00 { QQ+, TT-88 }

Pretty poorly, even discounting the possibility of QJ. Only if you throw in a pure bluff, like AK, does this become a good play. Fold.

I don't know if I agree with this range. It's like you're assuming his entire range is a monster hand. I think we have to include a few more hands that could make this move: 77, AJ, even the AK bluff, and QJ of course. Also AT(TPTK), 89, 9-10 (2p)..I still cant see folding here - I think this range is reasonable (below) and the numbers look decent enough for me to push over with :

Board: 8h Td 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.044% 51.67% 02.37% 291597 13375.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 45.956% 43.59% 02.37% 245952 13375.50 { QQ+, TT-77, AKs, AJs-ATs, QJs, T9s, 98s, AKo, AJo-ATo, QJo, T9o, 98o }


ps. my 666th post .... yikes



---

sorry but i think that range is extremely too wide

[Da GOAT]

still shove but expect to be behind on flop

If you think you're behind then why shove?

i should of said expect to be behind if called. im currently reviewing how i play these hands so im thinking whta id do now so i may be able to fix it in future.

i think jdubs range is a bit too wide but having said that opp's bet i think is very donkish so its not improbable for him not to have such hands

[Renton]

I'd actually consider sometimes folding to the huge raise. It may be a small mistake at worst. You have exactly zero fold equity.

He makes it 15, then shoving is 100% the only play here.

[zook]

sorry but i think that range is extremely too wide

I agree with martin again. jdubs, I throw out the offsuit two-pair hands because of the pre-flop raise. Villain's an unknown, and only the laggiest 50NL players are open-raising T9o and 98o. And remember that we're trying to figure out a CALLING range, so even if he bluff-raised with AK or semibluffed with 77 or AJ (which is unlikely), I doubt he's calling your push with these hands. As I said, I used to play this the exact same way, and now I'm convinced that it's a major leak. These kinds of plays depend on dead money and fold equity, and there's almost none of either in this hand.

He makes it 15, then shoving is 100% the only play here.

You really think we have that much more FE if he only raises to $15? I'm not so sure.

[Aces]

After the flop b/r it looks like a pretty easy fold, mostly behind an no FE. Too weak to c/c the flop(likely less than a pot size bet) and go from there?

[BankItDrew]

easy fold. y? because we are behind (massive overbet by villain). and we have no fold equity (due to massive overbet by villain).

[Miffed22001]

op opened for 5bbs, range is likely a big pair. He prob has as a set or an overpair giving us ten live outs.
If we want to gambOOl we shove. I agree we have no FE. but then looking at this hand, id have taken the 5bbs preflop to have been a big pp and c/c'ed the flop bet rather than leading. If this had been a standard 4bbs opener, id have played it this way and probably gone busto on gambOOling.

[jdubs]

OK maybe it's a bit wide, but extremely too wide? I really dont think so. As I said, I had just sat down, so I don't know if this guy is LAG, TAG, weak-tight, maniac. I just don't think you can narrow his range down to QQ+, 88-TT. I think assuming his entire range is way ahead of us is a mistake! AJ has flopped an OESD and an over- I can easily see a LAG opp making this play. TJ suited has TP and an OESD.. again a reasonable move for a LAG opp, even one not all that LAG. Villain, open raised from the CO, why are we putting him on a such a narrow range?? Even a TAG player can make this raise with suited connectors( 89,9T, TJ), AT AJ AK, etc. And all these hands, depending on the style of villain, could be possibilities- I simply don't understand assuming we are massively behind EVERY hand in villain's range.

I think my biggest mistake here is not reraising pre flop.. This would have shed more light on villain's possible holdings. If he reraises, of course I have to dump it. If he calls, then proceed with caution, and this move could very well take down the pot right there...

[jdubs]

sorry but i think that range is extremely too wide

I agree with martin again. jdubs, I throw out the offsuit two-pair hands because of the pre-flop raise. Villain's an unknown, and only the laggiest 50NL players are open-raising T9o and 98o. And remember that we're trying to figure out a CALLING range, so even if he bluff-raised with AK or semibluffed with 77 or AJ (which is unlikely), I doubt he's calling your push with these hands. As I said, I used to play this the exact same way, and now I'm convinced that it's a major leak. These kinds of plays depend on dead money and fold equity, and there's almost none of either in this hand.

He makes it 15, then shoving is 100% the only play here.

You really think we have that much more FE if he only raises to $15? I'm not so sure.

OK a minor point, take out the offsuit connectors, however, even a TAG villain might raise suited connectors from LP here.

[martindcx1e]

i really don't see 77 or AK doing this, and most players don't open with sc's like that

[jdubs]

Ok, how about this range?


Board: 8h Td 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.936% 45.44% 03.49% 199749 15355.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 51.064% 47.57% 03.49% 209100 15355.50 { QQ+, TT-88, AJs-ATs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo-ATo, QJo }



I really think the suited connector hands need to be considered, including the ones that got a piece of the flop, and have a big draw. These are prime semi bluffing candidates, and A LAG could very well reraise the flop with them. Note now I am slightly behind, having taken the AK and 77 out , but still very close to being even money. I also included the suited 2 gap connectors... some, of them, like T8, actually being ahead of us here.

[zook]

Ok, how about this range?


Board: 8h Td 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.936% 45.44% 03.49% 199749 15355.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 51.064% 47.57% 03.49% 209100 15355.50 { QQ+, TT-88, AJs-ATs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo-ATo, QJo }



I really think the suited connector hands need to be considered, including the ones that got a piece of the flop, and have a big draw. These are prime semi bluffing candidates, and A LAG could very well reraise the flop with them. Note now I am slightly behind, having taken the AK and 77 out , but still very close to being even money. I also included the suited 2 gap connectors... some, of them, like T8, actually being ahead of us here.

Sure, a lagg would raise the flop with some of these hands, but you don't have a read, so you have to go with what an average player would raise with and there's no way this is an average player's range. Plus, even if you're lucky enough to be up against a donkey lagg and he happens to raise one of these hands, he may not call your push. You have to consider his calling range, which imo eliminates at least AJ, QTs, J9s, 87s. Finally, Pokerstove weights hands by their likelihood of being dealt, so when you put AJ into his range, it counts for a lot more than each of the pairs he might be raising. But in reality, an opponent's much more likely to be raising QQ+ or TT-88 here than AJ.

But that's all quibbling. I think the most important thing is that you're not giving an unknown opponent much credit when he raises you big. Big raises usually mean what they look like and without a read, they should be respected.

[jdubs]

Ok, how about this range?


Board: 8h Td 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.936% 45.44% 03.49% 199749 15355.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 51.064% 47.57% 03.49% 209100 15355.50 { QQ+, TT-88, AJs-ATs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo-ATo, QJo }



I really think the suited connector hands need to be considered, including the ones that got a piece of the flop, and have a big draw. These are prime semi bluffing candidates, and A LAG could very well reraise the flop with them. Note now I am slightly behind, having taken the AK and 77 out , but still very close to being even money. I also included the suited 2 gap connectors... some, of them, like T8, actually being ahead of us here.

Sure, a lagg would raise the flop with some of these hands, but you don't have a read, so you have to go with what an average player would raise with and there's no way this is an average player's range. Plus, even if you're lucky enough to be up against a donkey lagg and he happens to raise one of these hands, he may not call your push. You have to consider his calling range, which imo eliminates at least AJ, QTs, J9s, 87s. Finally, Pokerstove weights hands by their likelihood of being dealt, so when you put AJ into his range, it counts for a lot more than each of the pairs he might be raising. But in reality, an opponent's much more likely to be raising QQ+ or TT-88 here than AJ.
But that's all quibbling. I think the most important thing is that you're not giving an unknown opponent much credit when he raises you big. Big raises usually mean what they look like and without a read, they should be respected.

more likely yes, but I still dont think you can narrow his range to that ..

also, what if my stack is equal or greater than Villain? Now I have more fold equity... and even if I am behind, 10 outs to improve.

[Rabid Dog]

Ok, I have a question. Lets put aside the flop play for a second. Does no one here re-raise the CO pre-flop? Wouldn't it help to figure out where you are. CO could just be making a standard raise to try to steal the blinds.

I know JJ isn't a great hand, but if you re-raise to $5 or $6 you might take the hand there. If not then go on to your post-flop play. I mean you got all in on the flop with TP and a straight draw, you might as well have gotten a little more aggressive pre-flop.

I could be wrong though, this is just my 2 pennies worth.

[jdubs]

Ok, I have a question. Lets put aside the flop play for a second. Does no one here re-raise the CO pre-flop? Wouldn't it help to figure out where you are. CO could just be making a standard raise to try to steal the blinds.

I know JJ isn't a great hand, but if you re-raise to $5 or $6 you might take the hand there. If not then go on to your post-flop play. I mean you got all in on the flop with TP and a straight draw, you might as well have gotten a little more aggressive pre-flop.

I could be wrong though, this is just my 2 pennies worth.

Yeah, I said earlier I think my biggest mistake here was not reraising preflop- If villain is on KK,AA , then this flop never happens, and I lose 7$. If he calls, then I have(maybe) a better idea of his holding, and as you say, I take it down right away when he folds.

[martindcx1e]

and even if I am behind, 10 outs to improve.

that's the thing though...you are almost certainly behind here and 10 outs can't justify getting your money in behind like this.

[Kinbor]

that's quite an easy laydown, but i understand, you still have probably 10 outs (40%) and it sounds sweet if you get your straight. but i'd like check/call or check/raise lines more. i'd be inclined to check/raise against a very agressive opponent and check/call against a weaker one. nh on the turn, though.

[BankItDrew]

i'd be inclined to check/raise against a very agressive opponent and check/call against a weaker one. nh on the turn, though.

I don't think playing a check/call line here against any opponent would be a good one. With an overpair and a drawing hand, you have to play this strong if you are going to play it at all. I fold this though.

[zook]

Lemme guess... villain/table berated you for sucking out on the turn and you vehemently defended the play?

[jdubs]

and even if I am behind, 10 outs to improve.

that's the thing though...you are almost certainly behind here and 10 outs can't justify getting your money in behind like this.

If my stack is bigger, I can justify getting my money in here, even if I assume I am always behind ( which I am still not sure of). Think about it, a big reraise by me , if I am deeper stacked ( say 100$), and now villain has to seriously consider folding AA, KK, QQ, which is half the range you give him. If he has these hands 50% of the time, I would say 3 times out of 4 he's holding the overpair and gets reraised big he lets it go. So roughly 35% of the time he folds, and 65% of time he calls. Given my 10 outs I win, what, 22% out of that 65? This now makes the push +EV, even if I KNOW he does indeed have 88-TT QQ+.

Obviously here I was not deep enough to do it- if we assume that is his range. I still argue I can't KNOW that he's only on 88-TT QQ+.

[Miffed22001]

pokerstove says call versus an expected raising range (even a tight one)

GambOOL!

[Fnord]

I'd actually consider sometimes folding to the huge raise. It may be a small mistake at worst. You have exactly zero fold equity.

/agree

This comes down to if we have a reason to want to gamble with him.

[martindcx1e]

I still argue I can't KNOW that he's only on 88-TT QQ+.

but you do KNOW that most players don't treat sc's like that, and without a read you should probably go with what the norm is.

[jdubs]

I still argue I can't KNOW that he's only on 88-TT QQ+.

but you do KNOW that most players don't treat sc's like that, and without a read you should probably go with what the norm is.

In any case, this is not a clear fold.

[zook]

In any case, this is not a clear fold.

Your whole case rests on an unknown player making a huge raise and calling a push with no pair and an open-ended straight draw (AJ). That's terrible.

[jdubs]

the fact that villain called push is irrelevant and looking at results... I can not agree I am massively behind 100% of the time here..most of the time, yes... 100%? that is pushing it, IMO. There's no way this is simply an "easy" fold.

[jdubs]

from 2+2

yeah, bet/fold there looks abysmal.

nice turn...RR pf is goot. post flop played fine.

Reraise preflop.
Everything else is fine.

yep. rr pf...

everything else is fine.


soooo these guys are just wrong?

some also say a fold is reasonable..but no one seems to think it's an "easy" fold..

[zook]

the fact that villain called push is irrelevant

The fact that he called is irrelevant, but determining what he would call with is crucial b/c the EV equation needs two arguments, one with your odds to win against his calling range, and one with your fold equity. If you really think he's making this raise with a bluff or semibluff (like AJ), you have to consider that he might fold to a push. And if you have any fold equity, you're further behind his calling range.

I never said that's it's an easy fold, anything but. Just that pushing is -EV against an unknown. That should be pretty obvious if you just take AJ out of the last range you gave him.

[zook]

the fact that villain called push is irrelevant and looking at results...

What's he going to fold here? Everyone agrees you have no fold equity, so you have to assume he calls. But if you do have some, he's only folding hands you beat (like AJ & AT). That leaves you even further behind his calling range!

I can not agree I am massively behind 100% of the time here..most of the time, yes... 100%? that is pushing it, IMO.

I think there are two hands he might have that you're ahead of, AT & JTs and those are unlikely compared to the rest of his range.

[jdubs]

the fact that villain called push is irrelevant and looking at results...

What's he going to fold here? Everyone agrees you have no fold equity, so you have to assume he calls. But if you do have some, he's only folding hands you beat (like AJ & AT). That leaves you even further behind his calling range!

I can not agree I am massively behind 100% of the time here..most of the time, yes... 100%? that is pushing it, IMO.

I think there are two hands he might have that you're ahead of, AT & JTs and those are unlikely compared to the rest of his range.

Dont forget villain made the pf raise from the CO- so pf at least we can't narrow his range too far, even a TAG occasionally makes a raise from the CO with TJs, AJ, etc.. Now his flop reraise is interesting- probably does signify a set or overpair driving out drawing hands, probably but not ALWAYS IMO. The massive overbet could be on a bluff/semi-bluff, not likely I agree, but should be considered.

Would you agree with a deeper stack my push over has more value, due to him likely having to fold the overpairs? say my stack is 100$, now I have fold equity and he's hard pressed to call without a set or straight.

[zook]

Would you agree with a deeper stack my push over has more value, due to him likely having to fold the overpairs? say my stack is 100$, now I have fold equity and he's hard pressed to call without a set or straight.

I definitely think so. His stack needs to be bigger too though, obv. A read would still help, because your average 50NL player has a hard time laying down overpairs, but they probably could with this scary board.

[martindcx1e]

from 2+2

yeah, bet/fold there looks abysmal.

nice turn...RR pf is goot. post flop played fine.

Reraise preflop.
Everything else is fine.

yep. rr pf...

everything else is fine.


soooo these guys are just wrong?

imo yes
also, 2+2 can be wrong

[jdubs]

from 2+2

yeah, bet/fold there looks abysmal.

nice turn...RR pf is goot. post flop played fine.

Reraise preflop.
Everything else is fine.

yep. rr pf...

everything else is fine.


soooo these guys are just wrong?

imo yes
also, 2+2 can be wrong

don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that 2+2ers advice is any better than FTRers, I'm just showing that on both boards my post flop play was both supported and criticized.