pot odds help please.

[djbruxism]

hi guys,

I've been reading phil gordon's little green book, and am now determined to further my understanding of pot odds. Could someone please check this out and see if what i'm thinking is correct?

For example....

25NL, someone raises from early position for $1, you call the $1 with connectors, blinds fold, the pot is $2.5. Both players have full stacks.

Flop comes, and you have a straight draw. Villian bets $1.25. The pot is $3.75, giving you pot odds of 3 to 1, and the odds of hitting your draw are about 3 to 1 over the turn and the river. You call.

Turn comes, still no help. villian bets $2.5, so you have to call $2.5 to win $7.5, that's 3 to 1, and the odds of hitting your draw now are only about 6 to 1. Therefor, you would want to be fairly sure villian will call a $7.5 bet on the river if you do hit.

How's my logic?

Is there a rule of thumb you guys use to decide whether to continue on a draw? Looking at effective stacks and pot odds etc. Sorry if this all seems straight forward, this is all pretty new to me.

Looking forward to any ideas you guys have.

Thanks

[swiggidy]

You've got it. Rule of thumb is it's ok to call if it's close because of implied odds. Your two examples are clear cut, good odds, bad odds. If you're in the middle calling isn't terrible.

Most of the better players would probably say raising is better if it's close but that's a completely different conversation.

[Miffed22001]

just remember to factor in your implied odds that accrue from you actually getting paid on the river. If the guy has a set he probably isnt folding if you catch

[Pelion]

Actually you arent quite there about pot odds. Your conclusion is about right but your logic is a little off.

Pot Odds - tell you if you will make an immediate profit on a call - The pot odds you are getting on the flop are 3:1 and the odds you will make your draw on the turn or river are 3:1 BUT since you arent going to be able to see both the turn and river cards for $1.25 you cant go by the odds of making your hand over 2 cards (unless you think he wont bet the turn e.g. if his flop bet puts him allin.)

Instead you have to compare your 3:1 pot odds with the odds of you hitting your draw on the turn (6:1) and then when he bets on the turn you have to again compare the pot odds with your chance of hitting. You will again need 6:1.

Implied odds - are the guesswork bit. In reality he isnt just going to stop betting when you hit your straight, and if he does he'll likely call a reasonable sized bet anyway. So really you arent calling $1.25 to win $3.75. You are calling $1.25 to win what will probably be at least $7 or $8 if villain has a decent hand. In fact you will probably win even more. So you are really getting about 7:1 implied odds which is plenty more than the 6:1 you need. So in reality if you are being given the pot odds you need over 2 cards on the flop in a N0 Limit game it is almost always correct to call even though your opponent will bet on the next street as well.

[TLR]

Pelion nailed the improtant points you miss

One more thing, Pot odds are a bit of a guesswork too, since you need to determine your outs, and in order to do that you usually have to estimate your opponent's hand.

Some cases it is easy: You have A6h and the board is 2h9hKc, you have 9 outs to make the nut flush assuming he does not have a set.

Some examples are harder, lets say you have Ac8c and the board is 7h9sTh. Villian bets.
Now estimating outs is a bit harder:
If villian has ATo or A9o then you have 8 outs, if he has A9h then you only have 6 outs.
If he has KTo you have 11 outs, and if he has QJo you are ahead.
In those cases you need to take your best estimate given villian's possible hand range and go from there