River decision

[Warpe]

No history with this guy but he seems decent, maybe a little aggressive:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($107.95)
SB ($150.75)
BB ($111.95)
UTG ($136.80)
MP ($295.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, T. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($6.50) 5, J, 3 (2 players)
BB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8.

Turn: ($30.50) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($30.50) K (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero ???

[Fnord]

Well, we're not folding.

I think there is too much value to not bump it to $40.
Then again, may as well go for $50.
$60 if you think you can get away with it.
Anything bigger probably won't get called without a LAggro image.

[chipper5711]

My warning flags are going up here. What possible hand do you place him on? First of all look at what hands here can beat you...

KJ, K3, K5, 33, 55 (any pocket pair). [KQ or AK also possible but wont beat you.] Ax suited clubs (A5s, A3s, AJs in particular)

Given his call pre-flop, I'd eliminate a major pair like KK or AA unless he was trying to trap, but for now eliminate the big pair.

He lead the betting on the flop so he liked part of this flop anyway or had overs, plus he smooth called your reraise and may not believe you hit that flop either. Eliminate 6-4, 5-3 or 4-2 as that is most likely cards he wouldn't call with preflop - so straight draw is out most likely. He checked the turn, perhaps assuming you would be betting and then he could c/r you but you didn't oblige him - thus showing weakness. If he was on a flush draw, a check by him was probably warranted.

His $20 on the river seems conservative given the size of the pot but then again it's big enough to scare you off if you had less than a flush. He may have figured you on a flush draw anyway and the King hit him just right. Chances are, I'm betting he either hit trips early and FH on river or he has a flush like you. Bluffing here with a big pair showing probably isn't the case. He may have Ace King too and is simply can't let it go.

Either way, I'd be at least calling this hand but not raising as there is a fair chance that you could be beat based on the betting.

[Renton]

i think i bump the flop to around 14-15. I'd bet the turn as well, but checking is ok too.

As played i minraise the river and call a pushament.

[bode]

i like a bump up to $50. I hope your not thinking of folding this? after reraising the flop, why dont you fire $20 or so on the turn after picking up 6 more outs?

[Fnord]

As played i minraise the river and call a pushament.

If we min-raise the river, I don't like auto-calling a push.

[Renton]

a push would only be 40 more and we're shown worse hands enough i think (you don't?).

[Genitruc]

If villain is good then there's definitely value in a raise to 50ish. He'll feel awfully tempted to call with a lower flush and anything he blocked with (since ppl block bet a lot saying they'll fold to a raise then second-guess themselves lol).

unless he's crazy you'll be beaten if he pushes and can fold pretty comfortably. If I'm feeling nitty I call here sometimes but usually I think a value raise is good here vs a thinking opponent. His bet is a blocker with Jx or better usually.

edit : Renton I don't think we're shown a worse hand more than maybe 10% of the time (unless he's completely suicidal aggro or a donk) if villain 3-bet pushes the river when we bump it to 40-50.

[Miffed22001]

i like the turn so make it $45 on river, ugh you probably can fold to a push with that bet for value as i guess we are behind the nut flush and a bunch of boats.

Id push because ive got the laggro image to bluff sometimes here but thats certainly the game i play that wont get a call for everyone.

[zenbitz]

I think he mostly has nothing here. Sometimes a slowplayed boat or nut flush. I guess he could have a baby flush or trips, but you think he would bet more, fearing a raise (with the good or without).

I think just min/raise, becuase he probably won't call 40-60 with anything you beat often enough to off-set the AXs.

[Warpe]

I raised to $60, he shoved, I called, he had AcXc ftw. Just checking, thx.