AA, paired board

[zook]

Villain is 29/14 over ~100 hands, mostly mined, I have no history or specific reads. What do you think of my turn check? I'm planning on c/c'ing, repping missed overs. What's your river play?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $1/$2 - 8 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $205.55
UTG+1: $216.15
MP1: $194
MP2: $201.30
CO: $153
Button: $168.50
SB: $161.70
Hero: $404.90

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with A A
5 folds, Button calls, SB folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $12, Button calls.

Flop: J 5 J ($25, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, Button calls.

Turn: 4 ($65, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: Q ($65, 2 players)
Hero...

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think you have to bet very little, it's pretty obvious this guy has a low pair and there's just no way he's going to call a normal 3/4ths pot bet. I'd bet something like 20 for very thin value.

[Bear Bones]

I don't hate a river check here if you think you might get opp to take a stab at the pot. I hate getting a check behind and missing bets though so I probably value bet this river for $25-30 without a read.

[Miffed22001]

checking is ok if opp will bet, but i dont think he does ofte enough so id lead.

[Da GOAT]

i agree with iowa and miffed. i think marginal hands will just check behind usually unless opp has shown very high agg levels

[zook]

Lead for 1/2-pot or less is the consensus?

[bigslikk]

when you're ahead, bet.

[zook]

when you're ahead, bet.

LOL. Thanks for your incredible insight.

[Da GOAT]

when you're ahead, bet.

LOL. Thanks for your incredible insight.

totally my new sig!!!! near fell of my chair, hmm dangerous for a tall guy like me.

[zook]

Ok. I bet, but I bet big b/c I underrepped my hand on the turn and thought a bigger bet would look more like a bluff.

River: Q ($65, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button tanks for a little while and raises to $136.50 (all-in), Hero...

[Warpe]

He slowrolled trips or caught his boat on the river, looks like. I'd say he has QQ.

[Fnord]

I bet $40 on the river. As played, I'm not sold that it's an insta-muck.

[IowaSkinsFan]

did he think and then push? I see AQ just being like meh ill put the rest in here.
If u made a smaller bet here this wouldn't be a problem.

[Miffed22001]

not insta muck, but need a good read to call.

[Warpe]

I bet $40 on the river. As played, I'm not sold that it's an insta-muck.

...but an insta-muck if we bet $40, you're saying?

[griffey24]

Ok. I bet, but I bet big b/c I underrepped my hand on the turn and thought a bigger bet would look more like a bluff.

River: Q ($65, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button tanks for a little while and raises to $136.50 (all-in), Hero...

Aren't we completely pot committed here? $76.50 to call into a $185 pot. Only have to be good here like 30% of the time.

If we had bet $40 and villain pushed, we'd need to be good here more than 40% of the time. I think we could find a fold in this spot.

I check call here pretty often to pick off bluffs, but I probably lose a lot of value from mid-pairs.

[Bear Bones]

River: Q ($65, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button tanks for a little while and raises to $136.50 (all-in), Hero...

Aren't we completely pot committed here? $76.50 to call into a $261 pot. Only have to be good here like 30% of the time.

Looks like you've pretty much committed yourself to a call here with 3.4:1 pot odds. I think you've got at least 30% chance that opp has AQ and thinks it's good or puts you on missed overs and tries to bluff you off.

[pokerroomace]

i think you should bet $30 on the river.

as played i think you should probably fold the river. i don' think AQ puts the rest of his money into the pot here. I think it would be quite a weak play to push the river with AQ. it would be a bluff with a fairly good hand. (book club). most players just flat call the river with AQ in his position. if he bets and you call - you usually have him beaten. if he bets and you fold then his AQ is usually good anyway.
most players just won't push that river with AQ.
the question is: what level of thinking is he on? (again, book club). since you don't know much about your opponent and he doesn't know much about you - betting with AQ would be quite risky on his part.
the only better hands that could fold are AA and KK. and there aren't any worse hands that will call if he has AQ.

if you induced him into making a bluffing at the pot then you must call here. the thing is i don't believe you did lead him into bluffing. in ToP it talks about inducing a bluff and states you should call if you do induce a bluff.

i don't think there are any hands you beat here except AQ and a bluff.

i think he has QJ or Jx here. i don't think he would limp AQ on the button with 29/14 stats. i don't think he would raise AQ on the river.
raising 14% of the time is quite aggressive right? and seeing 29% of flops is quite a lot. i think he might have a hand like J8 here. maybe a bit better since he did he call quite a big pf raise.
i don't think he would limp QQ or KK. he could have 44 or 55.

i fold here. there aren't many hands you can beat. and does he really think he can make you fold to a bluff? you are getting very good odds.

he has at least a J - fold. IMO

[zook]

Consensus seems to be that the turn check was ok, I should lead for less on the river (1/2-2/3 pot) and river call is meh b/c I'm getting almost 2.5:1. Results coming soon...

[zook]

I called, villain showed KJo. Nice turn check behind, sir.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

What hands that you beat are calling a river bet?

[pokerroomace]

Qx.
a pair (not including the JJ on board).
possibly A hi.

i think a lot of pocket pairs could call the river seeing it as a bluff.
if he bets $30 i think he can get calls from a lot of pps.

[zook]

What hands that you beat are calling a river bet?

Medium pp's, AQ/KQ. I have a spewy image, at least more spewy than any other regular in this game (partly thx to hands like these) so I get looked up with crap a lot. Problem is, this guy isn't a regular, so he prob doesn't know that

Yeah, I did not play this hand well.

[Galapogos]

I find that pause before he c/rai in generally him trying to decide for value if you will call a push or not.

I also don't think you get many calls from lesser PPs on the river, that Q made the board a lot scarier for them. I don't think AQ or KQ finds their way past the flop. Definately go for the c/c.