QQ, 4-bet pre-flop

[zook]

Villain is 24/9 over ~350 hands, seems solid, but I don't have any notes on him and don't remember seeing him re-raise. I've been active at this table.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $1/$2 - 7 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $174
UTG+1: $202.40
MP1: $156.95
CO: $208.70
Hero: $197
SB: $382.85
BB: $359.15

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is Button with Q Q
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, CO raises to $6, Hero raises to $24, SB folds, BB raises to $50, 2 folds, Hero...

[Bear Bones]

[quote="zook"]Villain.....seems solid....I don't have any notes on him and don't remember seeing him re-raise. I've been active at this table. [quote]

Methinks thou art toast. Doesn't look like anything outside of AA-QQ / AKs maybe and even then you're 50-50.

[Warpe]

Pretty straightforward fold, imo.

[Da GOAT]

Methinks thou art toast.

i love this, add to my sig perhaps

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

Why do you think he is bluffing?

[zook]

Why do you think he is bluffing?

Because I've been stealing his blinds and re-raising more than your average player in this game. And I occasionally suffer from "he must be playing back at me syndrome"

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

For some reason i cannot log onto Full Tilt at the moment. So, i went here of course to do some studying and i saw this post. I want to do some EV calculations on this hand for practice and to verify whether the consensus of folding is correct.

Here are my assumptions about villains range (assuming he is probably frustrated from Zook's aggression). I think it is actually quite probable that villain is bluffing, since he laid zook good odds to call to see a flop, and his raise clearly doesn't pot commit him to the hand. Certainly villain could be doing all this on purpose to disguise the fact he has AA, but in order for me to do this i will assume we are NOT being 3rd leveled.

Bluff: 30%
A-A/K-K: 50%
A-K: 20%

If villain is bluffing, he will fold to a 4bet (presumably)

Hero raises to $110, Villain folds. Hero wins $57
Probability: 30%

If villain is holding A-K, he will fold to the 4bet probably only 1/2 the time (since he is so mad at you ) and shove AI the other half.

Hero raises to $110, Villain folds. Hero wins $57
Probability: 10%

Hero raises to $110, Villain pushes, Hero calls and wins. Hero wins $204
Probability: 5%

Hero raises to $110, Villain pushes, Hero calls and loses. Hero loses $173
Probability: 5%

Certainly there will be times when villain is holding A-A/K-K. He will never fold these preflop.

Hero raises to $110, Villain pushes, Hero calls and wins. Hero wins $204
Probability: 10%

Hero raises to $110, Villain pushes, Hero calls and loses. Hero loses $173
Probability: 40%

Math time!
(($57) x 0.3) + (($57) x 0.1) + (($204) x 0.05) +((-$173) x 0.05) + (($204) x 0.1) + ((-$173) x 0.4) =

($17.1) + ($5.7) + ($10.2) + ($-8.65) + ($20.4) + (-$69.2) = -$24.45

So, it is -EV. It would become even more EV if we gave villain a normal bluffing percentage, like 10% or less. So yeah to further validate aforementioned advice this is a fold, and it ain't even close.