3-barrel bluff line

[zook]

Villain is 49/15/2.3 over 600 hands. WTSD% is 20. Obv likes to call too much pre-flop, but I haven't seen him do anything terrible or donkish post-flop. I have position on him on another table and have been abusing him with it.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $1/$2 - 9 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $224.30
UTG+1: $204.60
MP1: $208.05
MP2: $304
MP3: $292.05
Hero: $200
Button: $228.25
SB: $179.75
BB: $254.25

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with A J
5 folds, Hero raises to $8, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 3 Q 9 ($19, 2 players)
Hero bets $16, Button calls.

Turn: T ($51, 2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button calls.

River: J ($111, 2 players)
Hero is all-in $146

[Miffed22001]

he rivered two pair right? or has KQ and cant fold it.

[zook]

I'm trying to fold a passively played AQ/2 pair or rivered 2 pair. I doubt I'll fold KQ.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

i think he will be holding K-Q here probably 20% of the time.

I make that assumption on the statement that villain likes to call too much preflop. Assuming all hands have an equal probability of being held, he could be holding:

1). A-Q
2). K-Q
3). Q-J
4). Q-10
5). Q-9

He could be holding a flush only with Ah-Qh, so he might hold that something like 5% of the time. I wouldn't give villain credit for a set or an overpair either, since he didn't raise on the flop or the turn.

If his showdown % is 20, there is a good chance you can push him off of two pair type hands on this board. As played i think it is possible you were holding K-K, or K-Q (well repped).

You can villan to fold 75% of his range on this river. There is ~$100 in the pot, and you are risking ~$115. This play only needs to work 30% of the time for it to be profitable, IMO.

So, i think it is +EV.

[Miffed22001]

he had tp on the flop or maybe JT oesd in which case i cant see a bad station folding the river considering the strength of his hand (depsite all the other stuff we'd say about folding here)

[minSim]

I don't think you have much FE, especially if your read is he is a calling station. KQ is very likely, he probably doesn't fold TJ either.

What do you rep that villain should fold to; KQ? It's hard to put someone on just one hand, so I don't expect villain to do it.
I think you rep TP too much and I think villain can beat that.