Starfleet MLB Selections

[ensign_lee]

Well, this'll be the first time I'll be trying to cap MLB. I'm going to try to apply some of the fundamental strategies that I've learned trying to cap others sports. Let's see how it works.

Bear with me; I'm a noob, so feel free to fade (or say "WHAT are you doing?!!!!?!?!?!)

But um yeah. Let's see how this experiment goes.

If you ever want to see a detailed analysis of my bets, here ya go: http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

Allright. Onwards!

[ensign_lee]

To kick things off:

Washington Nationals +1.5 (-163.27)
2 units at Matchbook

Kansas City M/L (+146.02)
4 units at Matchbook

[bigspenda73]

Im guessing we will be seeing a lot of + signs and m/l dogs in the future from you.

I always thought the dog was the better bet in baseball but I've only bet a handful of games.

[Harry]

Nats +1.5 are are -145 at matchbook now. I still like Florida -120 though.

[ensign_lee]

Apparently, I forgot to post one of my bets for last night.

Baltimore M/L (+180)
2 units at Matchbook

It lost, so yeah. But d'oh.

zook:

Hehe. Let's hope there's a plus sign next to my Units Won column.


Everybody:

Ok. So I may have jumped into this game (MLB) with MUUUUUCH too much abandon. I'm going to scale back my unit sizes to 1 unit and 2 units, with only the very occasional 3 unit play.

The majority of them will be 1 unit, and they will qualify for a play when I'm fading the public. To get to 2 units, there either has to be a dramatic odds movement (note I said odds movement, not line movement - m/l's are the normal play in baseball) of about 20 cents or so, where I can still get close to the original number, or I have to be betting on a home team that only has around 20% of the bets or so. (Like the Royals yesterday).

So uh, yeah.

[bigspenda73]

zook:

Hehe. Let's hope there's a plus sign next to my Units Won column.

It's funny that zook didn't even post in this thread

[ensign_lee]

zook:

Hehe. Let's hope there's a plus sign next to my Units Won column.

It's funny that zook didn't even post in this thread

HAHAHAHA. I'm retarded.

Also, bigspenda - Yes. I do plan on hitting M/L's more often than runlines...for now. I got pwned yesterday paying -163 for that 1.5 runs.

[zook]

Thanks for thinking of me!

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 1-2
Units Won: +.57 units

If you want to delve deeply to see what I'm good at and what suck at, here's a detailed analysis of my bets.

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Oooook. May have overextended myself a BIT (read: a lot) yesterday and am going to try to cut back so I don't go broke to start off. Luckily, ended up in the + money yesterday. Phew...

For today:

Pittsburgh Pirates (+154)
1 unit at matchbook

Washington Nationals (+117)
1 unit at matchbook

Here goes nothing, betting on the nationals again. hah.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 2-3
Units Won: 1.11

Washington Nationals (+139.16)
1 unit at Matchbook ... again.

[bigspenda73]

Lee, you should real time bet the opposition the next time the Astros have a lead going into the 8th inning.

Easssssyyyyy money

[ensign_lee]

I would, but nobody offers live betting there. Why don't we have a closer?

Pujols done screwed lidge up FOREVER.

[ensign_lee]

Pittsburgh Pirates (+143.08)
1 unit at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 4-4
Units Won: 1.93

For a look deeper into my record, http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

For today:

Kansas City Royals (+158.76)
2 units

...again.

Around 80% of public on Boston. Not yet a proportionate odds move (0 odds movement actually). This might be just the time of day, though. I just have class when this goes off, so...I have to get the bet in now. Who knows? Maybe the line will move the wrong way like it did the first game?

[Harry]

Just got em at +172. I'm 1-4 for MLB this season, hopefully some of my bets will do well today.

[ensign_lee]

D'oh for us then, Harry.

D-rays (+262.64)
1 unit at Matchbook

[Harry]

Nice, I also picked up D-rays +260 for 2 units earlier today.

BTW Lee, I think I entered my bet on the Royals today (4/5) twice. Is there anyway I can take one out of my record?

[ensign_lee]

Way to go Harry!

And yeah. I'll see if I can't go and delete one of them for you. It's a bitch wading through the database, so if I don't get to it for a few days, don't kill me.

But if I don't get to it by this time next week or something, let me know.

[Harry]

Thanks Lee. I'm back in the black even with the extra losing Royals bet though!

http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322425258

[ensign_lee]

Baltimore (+201.88)
1 unit at Matchbook

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Also, WELL DONE HARRY!

[Harry]

I have one unit on Baltimore +204 as well.

[ensign_lee]

San Francisco (-104.08)
1 unit at Matchbook

[Harry]

hehe goooo Baltimore!

I'm 7-6 +8.7u after today!

[IowaSkinsFan]

wow MLB has to be hard to bet on, what's your guys' strategy?

[bigspenda73]

wow MLB has to be hard to bet on, what's your guys' strategy?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-53172.htm

It's a really really good post for any form of sportsbetting

[ensign_lee]

hehe goooo Baltimore!

I'm 7-6 +8.7u after today!

NH SIR!!!

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 7-6
Units Won: +4.54

Check me out! You'll be able to break down my record even further.

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Kansas City Royals (+109.76)
1 unit at Matchbook

The Royals showed yesterday that they CAN hang tough with teams, even if they do get blown out from time to time. They beat the Tigers yesterday and I believe they can do it again. +money? I'll take it.

Plus, the line's been dropping since last night, to make Detroit look tastier, even though there's about a 2:1 bet ratio on Detroit. Plus, sportsinsights is either A) getting fed bad information or B) feeding us bad information regarding the percentages on this game. I don't believe for a second this game is 50/50.

[ensign_lee]

Arizona Diamondbacks (+117.6)
2 units at Matchbook

[Harry]

Lost all my bets today! -7u lol

[ensign_lee]

Comment: Yes. the Arizona bet above was at runline (-1.5)

Harry: D'oh. Momma said there'd be days like this. Hang tough!

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 8-7
Units Won: 5.89

Detailed Analysis of My Bets - Check it out!

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We've got some good cappers here. I've got quite the competition out here. Kudos to y'all!

---
For tomorrow (4-7-7):

Arizona Diamondbacks M/L (-135)
3 units at BetJamaica

Washington has had one miracle comeback and one close game (the latter being against Arizona). I think that they have yet to prove they have consistency and they're still getting used to their stadium. At -135, I like this bet. I might even buy some back later to try to scalp and make my odds better, but we'll see.

I don't see this line getting better/cheaper than this tomorrow, so I'm taking it now.

[ensign_lee]

Additionally:

Houston Astros (-115.31)
1 unit at Matchbook

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Houston is a team that is streaky and it looks like last night finally got the monkey of the first win off their backs.

If you look at St. Louis, in their games, they've scored 1, 1, 0, 4, 1 : their lone win coming when they scored 4. I don't think they're done with their post championship funk yet.

Plus, this gives me an opportunity to bet FOR my astros.

[ensign_lee]

Tampa Bay (+126)
1 unit at BetJamaica

[ensign_lee]

Just got my offer at matchbook accepted a little bit ago:

Houston -1.5 (+184.24)
1 unit at Matchbook

Yes. I know I'm spotting a run in the NL and with a home team. But it was an entire dollar of difference. I think that was a worthwhile tradeoff

[ensign_lee]

Colorado Rockies (+170)
1 unit at BetJamaica

[Harry]

So I put a unit on Cleveland for 4/9 at Matchbook, but its a double header, so I don't know which game the bet is for. How do I enter it in SS?

thanks

[bigspenda73]

Should've taken the 'stros on a 10pt teaser.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 9-12
Units Won: 3.74

You can find in-depth analysis of my bets.
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I got owned pretty badly yesterday, but onward we press. Yikes 1-5...

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Chicago Cubs (-144)
3 units at BetJamaica

I believe that in their home opener the Cubs will be able to handle the astros handily, even if the astros perform better than they have been.

---
Also, Harry:
There's a SEA GM1 and SEA GM2 . Choose the one that is appropriate for you (the one that is first is GM1)

and bigspenda: lolololol. What you mean is we should have taken the alternate runline on the cards -4.5 ... goodness that was a crappy game.

[ensign_lee]

Also:

Tampa Bay (+136.22)
1 unit at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

Chicago / Oakland UNDER 8 (-110)
1 unit at matchbook

[ensign_lee]

Atlanta -1.5 (-110.20)
2 units at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

* Angels M/L (127)
2 units
* Pirates M/L (-123.46)
2 units
* Diamondbacks M/L (-124)
1 unit
* White Sox M/L (102.9)
2 units
* Dodgers M/L (-125.5)
3 units
* Dodgers -1.5 (165)
3 units

Toronto -1.5 (+140)
1 unit at theGreek

Some of these picks are borrowed from handicappers I respect. Thank y'all so much for your work!

[ensign_lee]

Not the best day ever. D'oh.

YTD: 18-23
Units Won: .56

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 18-23
Units Won: .56

To get a better idea of how I'm doing, SageStats

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Texas (-150)
3 units at Matchbook

Texas -1.5 (-135.24)
2 units at Matchbook

Also,
San Diego M/L (-132)
2 units

San Diego -1.5 (+168)
1 unit

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 21-25
Units Won: -1.11

For my record broken down further, http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

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This experiment is going awry quickly. Yikes...oh well. Onward we press. :drink:

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B-Jays M/L (-124.49)
2 units at matchbook

Mets M/L (-144.9)
3 units at matchbook

Mets -1.5 (141.12)
1 unit at matchbook

D-Rays M/L (146)
1 unit at matchbook

Mets Team Total OVER 4.5 (-115)
2 units at theGreek

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Lots of the above picks have been borrowed from others. Thank you for your hard work!

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty. Gosh...can't believe I'm doing this, but...

Washington +1.5 (+130.34)
1 unit at Matchbook

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Also, lolololol at my repeat posts making this thread be 'on fire.;

[Harry]

Go nats! I had 2 units +277 on em Lee =)

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 25-27
Units Won: 3.11

For a more detailed record, http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

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Allrighty, here's what's on deck for today:

Phillies M/L (-105.1)
2 units at matchbook

Red Sox M/L (-101.03)
1 unit at matchbook

Phillies -1.5 (+199.92)
1 unit at matchbook

Yankees -1.5 (+160)
4 units at matchbook

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And then, my big 'over my head' wager of the day:

Mets -1.5 (+110.37)
20 units at matchbook / thegreek

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Lots of my profit has come so far from fading the nationals. They strand a ridiculous amount of runners and I think the Mets can take care of business here. Even in last night's game (where I had Washington, by the way), the Nationals were only able to come up against two runs when they had bases loaded twice. Hopefully, they strand all their runners again today. I guess we'll see.

Lots of the other wagers have been heavily influenced by other handicappers that I respect. Thanks y'all!

Also, I have some offers outstanding on matchbook that have not yet been filled. I will post those when they do get filled.

Allrighty...here goes nothing.


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and way to have more faith than I did, Harry!

[ensign_lee]

Orioles (-1.5) (130.34)
2 units at matchbook

[ensign_lee]

Florida (-102.04)
2 units at matchbook

[ensign_lee]

St. Louis (+106.82)
2 units at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

Toronto (-140.82)
2 units at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 29-31
Units Won: -16.39

You can see a more detailed account of my record at: http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978
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Wowzers. Yesterday sucked, but it's my own damn fault for betting WAAAAAAY over my head.

But I will NOT chase. I'm gonna have to grind my way back out of this hole. ... *sigh*.

Allrighty, here's what we have on deck for today:

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St. Louis (-124.49)
2 units at Matchbook

St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (178.36)
1 unit

Texas Rangers (-113.4)
2 units

Boston Red Sox -1.5 (108.78)
3 units

Dodgers M/L (108.78)
2 units

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I also have offers pending on matchbook. As they get filled, I will post them as plays.

I've borrowed some of these picks from handicappers just like you! Thanks for your help, guys!

[ensign_lee]

St. Louis (-124.49)
2 units at Matchbook

[IowaSkinsFan]

Take baltimore!!!
(LOL im way too big of a homer)

[IowaSkinsFan]

If you ever need an opinion on Baltimore PM me, ill give u all the info you need.
BTW Baltimore (-110) i think is an easy pick. They're coming off a pretty decent showing of runs (however, most of runs were off timely hitting something u cant completely expect). But D. Cabrera is pitching, a young inconsistant pitcher who has shown a lot early on. He tends to do well when the pressure is off, here is one of the games where he has no pressure cause KC sucks.

[ensign_lee]

Haha. I'll keep that in mind Iowa

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+128)
1 unit at BetJam

[IowaSkinsFan]

What did I say?
Orioles 6 KC 4

However, DCab didn't perform as well as i expected.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 30-36
Units Won: -21.892 units

If you would like to see a more detailed breakdown, here I am: http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978
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I've decided to keep weakly threads from Sunday to Sunday for now. It'll make it easier to keep everything in one place.

As you can see, my record kinda blows, so feel free to fade. But I'm gonna try my best to dig myself out of this hole. It's a long season, so there's not reason to panic just yet.
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Oakland A's (-110)
2 units at BetJamaica

Texas Rangers (-101)
5 units at Matchbook

Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+151)
1 unit at matchbook

Milwaukee Brewers (-107)
2 units at Matchbook

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I've borrowed some of these picks from others. Thank you for all your work everyone!