semi-tough decesion w/ AQ

[bode]

-buzzle is 40/10/5.5 over 50 hands
-two pears is 17/10/1.5 over 90 hands

is this a correct fold?
Edit: After looking at this i think its a fairly easy fold given a normal Tagg 3-bet calling range, i guess it seemed tougher while playing.

PokerStars Game #11261934467: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/08/01 - 22:24:39 (ET)
Table 'Phocaea IV' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: AE8KOBE8 ($6.70 in chips)
Seat 2: buzzlebuzzle ($48 in chips)
Seat 3: BankeBrett ($98.30 in chips)
Seat 4: two pears ($52.55 in chips)
Seat 5: Bode-ist ($56.90 in chips)
Seat 6: mike_the_cat ($21.50 in chips)
buzzlebuzzle: posts small blind $0.25
BankeBrett: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bode-ist [Qd Ac]
two pears: raises $1.50 to $2
Bode-ist: raises $5 to $7
mike_the_cat: folds
AE8KOBE8: folds
buzzlebuzzle: calls $6.75
BankeBrett: folds
two pears: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [6d Th As]
buzzlebuzzle: checks
two pears: bets $10
Bode-ist: folds

[silu73]

Too weak IMO. I would at least call the flop.

[bode]

Too weak IMO. I would at least call the flop.

i thought i was way behind his range, but plugging it into PokerStove it looks like im ahead of his range here, until he leads into me. I cant think im ahead of anything here but QQ/KK, and how often is a 17/10 nit leading into the pf 3-bettor w/ an A on the board?


32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec
Board: 6d Th As
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.079% 44.84% 09.24% 14648 3019.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 45.921% 36.68% 09.24% 11983 3019.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


---



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec
Board: 6d Th As
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.549% 61.25% 00.30% 14552 72.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 38.451% 38.15% 00.30% 9064 72.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


---

[Ash256]

I think his preflop calling range is waaaaaaaaaaay wider than you're giving him credit for - the bad player has already called to see a flop, and I just don't see him folding that much stuff when he's getting 4:1 preflop, especially now that the bad player has come along for the ride.

Having said that, flop action still scares the shit out of me.

[bode]

I think his preflop calling range is waaaaaaaaaaay wider than you're giving him credit for - the bad player has already called to see a flop, and I just don't see him folding that much stuff when he's getting 4:1 preflop, especially now that the bad player has come along for the ride.

Having said that, flop action still scares the shit out of me.

even with the other guy calling, you still think a 17/10 is calling w/ hands like 88/99/AJ? His original raise is from UTG, so i dont think hes getting tricky here.

[lambchopdc]

I think his preflop calling range is waaaaaaaaaaay wider than you're giving him credit for - the bad player has already called to see a flop, and I just don't see him folding that much stuff when he's getting 4:1 preflop, especially now that the bad player has come along for the ride.

Having said that, flop action still scares the shit out of me.

even with the other guy calling, you still think a 17/10 is calling w/ hands like 88/99/AJ? His original raise is from UTG, so i dont think hes getting tricky here.

Ok i felt bad for just lurking and occasionally posting in the commune in threads where i'm mentioned, so I guess i'll throw a strategy post in here.

I think you are leaving a few things out of your analysis:

A. Villian is 17/10 over 90 hands. 90 hands is a pretty small sample. My real VPIP is somewhere around 25 but if I look through my sessions in PT im pretty sure I can find some where my vpip is around 15 or 40 for 100 hand samples, so that being said I don't think his stats should be taken that seriously. I'm not saying they should be ignored either. I think a more accurate analysis is "ok this guy is probably pretty tight and i should proceed with caution", rather than "this is a nit i must be behind."

B. The fish cold-calling greatly increases UTG's range here. If i'm villain here i'm probably calling with a large portion of my UTG opening range. I interpret his flop action to be either a monster, or he wants to play the pot with the donk and wants to see where you are at. Given that, I think Hero needs to at least call the flop bet and re-evaluate the turn.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think his preflop calling range is waaaaaaaaaaay wider than you're giving him credit for - the bad player has already called to see a flop, and I just don't see him folding that much stuff when he's getting 4:1 preflop, especially now that the bad player has come along for the ride.

Having said that, flop action still scares the shit out of me.

even with the other guy calling, you still think a 17/10 is calling w/ hands like 88/99/AJ? His original raise is from UTG, so i dont think hes getting tricky here.

Ok i felt bad for just lurking and occasionally posting in the commune in threads where i'm mentioned, so I guess i'll throw a strategy post in here.

I think you are leaving a few things out of your analysis:

A. Villian is 17/10 over 90 hands. 90 hands is a pretty small sample. My real VPIP is somewhere around 25 but if I look through my sessions in PT im pretty sure I can find some where my vpip is around 15 or 40 for 100 hand samples, so that being said I don't think his stats should be taken that seriously. I'm not saying they should be ignored either. I think a more accurate analysis is "ok this guy is probably pretty tight and i should proceed with caution", rather than "this is a nit i must be behind."

B. The fish cold-calling greatly increases UTG's range here. If i'm villain here i'm probably calling with a large portion of my UTG opening range. I interpret his flop action to be either a monster, or he wants to play the pot with the donk and wants to see where you are at. Given that, I think Hero needs to at least call the flop bet and re-evaluate the turn.

Wow very solid post, thanks.

[bode]

yeah, thanks lambchop. I know that 100 hands isnt a meaningful sample, and villain may be a 22/14 on a shitty run of cards, but more often than not its pretty close to accurate. That being said, i still think this is a correct fold.