100nl Tough Spot

[Genitruc]

Villain has tight taggy aggro stats (14/10/4.8) over a reasonable sample

- progre sitting in seat 1 with $125.30
- duff90210 sitting in seat 2 with $166.61
- Genitruc sitting in seat 3 with $197.00
- thomas76 sitting in seat 4 with $100.70
- tyson66 sitting in seat 5 with $84.80
- ollie08 sitting in seat 6 with $60.55 [Dealer]

progre posted the small blind - $0.50
duff90210 posted the big blind - $1.00
** Dealing card to Genitruc:
Genitruc raised - $4.00
thomas76 folded
tyson66 called - $4.00
ollie08 folded
progre called - $4.00
duff90210 called - $4.00

** Dealing the flop:
progre checked
duff90210 bet - $10.00
Genitruc called - $10.00
tyson66 folded
progre folded

** Dealing the turn:
duff90210 bet - $25.00
Genitruc…

[sauce123]

as played fold turn but for the love of god raise the flop

[gabe]

i would call again, flop isnt standard but fine every now and then

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Kinda looks like a draw since his flop bet size makes no sense. You could call and fold a hard river bet here... Folding the turn wouldn't be a crime at all though.

I almost always raise the flop here.

[aislephive]

Pretty easy fold on turn.

[gabe]

Pretty easy fold on turn.

huh

[Miffed22001]

id have raised every street in this game.

[Genitruc]

I'm expecting villain to show up here with 99 or a big draw like JcQc after he donks the flop based on stats and the fact that I hadn't identified him as a donk.

The 9 on the turn is actually a pretty good card for me.

No one has quads ever and now his range is made up much more of big draws than better monsters.

I don't see a tight solid taggy player leading AQ-A10 here since his hand is worthless when raised. AK usually 3-bets preflop.

So the turn is a tough spot since my hand got weaker but villain's range just narrowed considerably because of the turn card.

BTW the reason I see for raising the flop vs a tight aggro player here is to isolate vs random gutshots and crap that will come along for the ride 3/4 ways rather than for value.

[mcatdog]

I'm expecting villain to show up here with 99 or a big draw like JcQc after he donks the flop based on stats and the fact that I hadn't identified him as a donk.

The 9 on the turn is actually a pretty good card for me.

No one has quads ever and now his range is made up much more of big draws than better monsters.

If his range is that narrow then you're still in big trouble.

Draws: Q J, J T, 7 6 (3 combinations)
Monsters: 9 8, 9 8, 9 9, 8 8, 8 8, 8 8 (6 combinations)

Am I missing anything that you think ought to be in his range?

[Genitruc]

I'm expecting villain to show up here with 99 or a big draw like JcQc after he donks the flop based on stats and the fact that I hadn't identified him as a donk.

The 9 on the turn is actually a pretty good card for me.

No one has quads ever and now his range is made up much more of big draws than better monsters.

If his range is that narrow then you're still in big trouble.

Draws: Q J, J T, 7 6 (3 combinations)
Monsters: 9 8, 9 8, 9 9, 8 8, 8 8, 8 8 (6 combinations)

Am I missing anything that you think ought to be in his range?

A9 but that would be shitty

[aislephive]

Pretty easy fold on turn.

huh

BB who is basically a super nit playing 14/10 calls a raise OOP, leads a super drawy coordinated flop into 3 players, gets called by the preflop raiser, then leads out on a pretty harmless looking card. I don't know what you put him on or if you realized we got counterfieted on the turn, but I think it's very unlikely we have the best hand. We don't beat any other ace, so we're splitting at best here, and given his nitty preflop stats he is likely to have a bigger ace if not some kind of boat already. Furthermore, if you call the turn wtf are you going to do on the river if he bets again which he very likely will? Basically you're just praying to god he checks the river and you can split with a weaker ace or the river blanks and you get to showdown against some random draw.

Genitruic, I disagree about him not likely having a big ace here. The entire point of leading a hand like AQ in his shoes is to find out if his hand is good, if he gets raised it's an easy fold. I don't see how on earth you think the 9 is a good card for you since not only did it kill your hand but all of his range got much stronger relative to your hand. That is probably THE worst turn card you could've seen.

[Genitruc]

I hear ya aisle.

At these wimpy stakes though, I usually see the nits play a hand like AQ/AJ here pretty passively. His leading into 4 ppl made me feel he was very strong.

I might just be projecting my own play onto others though, since I would probably never ever ever lead a hand like AQ multi-way on this flop.

edit : if my initial read is correct though, I still think the 9 is a good card for my hand

[biondino]

This looks like an utterly straightforward AK-AJ to me. I am astonished that people think AQ is playing this oddly?

[Genitruc]

This looks like an utterly straightforward AK-AJ to me. I am astonished that people think AQ is playing this oddly?

If villain has AQ he will either :

-take the pot down right now (unlikely)

-get raised by any number of hands and have to insta-fold

-get called by a draw and be OOP in a bloated pot where about 2347823472308 cards could complete someone's hand in a 4-way pot and it'll be impossible to tell what ppl have

-extract value on the flop and MAYBE the turn or river vs exactly 2 hands (AJ/A10)

I think betting AQ here is a recipe for disaster if you are villain... which doesn't mean he isn't doing it obv.