Bluff in 3bet pot, funny timing

[Renton]

sans reads

POKERSTARS GAME #9766072713: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/05/05 - 18:28:45 (ET)
Table 'Gagarin II' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: GoMukYaSelf ($199 in chips)
Seat 2: thapuss ($39.45 in chips)
Seat 3: Ninco ($198 in chips)
Seat 4: Renton555 ($256.70 in chips)
Seat 5: Arlequin333 ($186 in chips)
Seat 6: tester45 ($203 in chips)
Seat 7: Authority381 ($82.75 in chips)
Seat 8: kirkpockets ($254.80 in chips)
Seat 9: cyberpeogh ($214.25 in chips)
Ninco: posts small blind $1
Renton555: posts big blind $2

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Renton555 [Ah Qd]

Arlequin333: folds
tester45: folds
Authority381: folds
kirkpockets: folds
cyberpeogh: folds
GoMukYaSelf: raises $5 to $7
thapuss: folds
Ninco: calls $6
Renton555: raises $23 to $30
GoMukYaSelf: folds
Ninco: calls $23

*** FLOP *** [Ts 2s 9s]

Ninco: checks
Renton555: checks

*** TURN *** [Ts 2s 9s] [Kd]

Ninco: bets $20
Renton555: raises $44 to $64
Ninco: calls $44 like INSTA OMG I CALL, like ive never seen anyone call this fast

*** RIVER *** [Ts 2s 9s Kd] [5d]

Ninco: checks
Renton555: bluffs all in or checks?

[zook]

PUT HIM TO A DECISION FOR ALL OF HIS CHIPS

[Pelion]

What can he have here that he will fold?

Maybe QQ/JJ but I really doubt he has them.

[phantom_lord]

check.

[zook]

check.

Your wpp is too low.

[Miffed22001]

i like a push if hes capable of folding lukewarm hands...

[Renton]

MORE REPLIES PLZ

[gabe]

i would value bet AK here, also i hate your line. just bet the flop because your hand sucks so bad u want to take it down.

[Renton]

im pretty sure betting the flop is -ev here vs most players preflop calling ranges at 1/2 fr

[IowaSkinsFan]

i think he has a K here that doesnt fold like 80% of the time.

[zook]

im pretty sure betting the flop is -ev here vs most players preflop calling ranges at 1/2 fr

I disagree in general, but really disagree without a read.

[Renton]

im pretty sure betting the flop is -ev here vs most players preflop calling ranges at 1/2 fr

I disagree in general, but really disagree without a read.

please explain this mathematically.

the majority of most players's 3bet calling ranges consist of medium to big pairs. This is also a terrible flop to bet if his calling range is medium+ pairs and medium suited connectors.

I suppose if you wanted to augment variance for a little more ev you could shove the turn against the people who call the flop light, but vs unknown thats not gonna work.


sbrugby plays more aggressively than most of us and ive very often seen him check in this spot (6 max though, so take that for what its worth)

[Renton]

i think he has a K here that doesnt fold like 80% of the time.

im pretty sure Kx is folding this river a shit ton considering the board

[gabe]

im pretty sure betting the flop is -ev here vs most players preflop calling ranges at 1/2 fr

I disagree in general, but really disagree without a read.

please explain this mathematically.

the majority of most players's 3bet calling ranges consist of medium to big pairs. This is also a terrible flop to bet if his calling range is medium+ pairs and medium suited connectors.

I suppose if you wanted to augment variance for a little more ev you could shove the turn against the people who call the flop light, but vs unknown thats not gonna work.


sbrugby plays more aggressively than most of us and ive very often seen him check in this spot (6 max though, so take that for what its worth)

the sbrugby thing has NOTHING to do with this. he plays with good players. speaking of which, if you know so much about all these people you are playing against, why arent you completely raping them in ways beside just reraising AQ+? if they open a huge range and only call reraises with medium to big pairs, then 3 bet the shit out of them. make them adjust to you and then this flop will be a very easy bet.

[Fnord]

im pretty sure betting the flop is -ev here vs most players preflop calling ranges at 1/2 fr

Then why are we putting even more money into this pot? You made your play, it didn't get the desired effect pre-flop, flop whiffed badly. If you don't like a flop bet and don't like testing him for all the money, then the line is check/fold.

[Renton]

im pretty sure betting the flop is -ev here vs most players preflop calling ranges at 1/2 fr

I disagree in general, but really disagree without a read.

please explain this mathematically.

the majority of most players's 3bet calling ranges consist of medium to big pairs. This is also a terrible flop to bet if his calling range is medium+ pairs and medium suited connectors.

I suppose if you wanted to augment variance for a little more ev you could shove the turn against the people who call the flop light, but vs unknown thats not gonna work.


sbrugby plays more aggressively than most of us and ive very often seen him check in this spot (6 max though, so take that for what its worth)

the sbrugby thing has NOTHING to do with this. he plays with good players. speaking of which, if you know so much about all these people you are playing against, why arent you completely raping them in ways beside just reraising AQ+? if they open a huge range and only call reraises with medium to big pairs, then 3 bet the shit out of them. make them adjust to you and then this flop will be a very easy bet.

What are you getting at gabe? Who says they open a huge range? An unknown in this game probably only opens the top 8% of hands. I can't imagine that threebetting much more than AQ+ JJ+ is very profitable vs these unknowns because they open such a narrow range to begin with.

Then why are we putting even more money into this pot? You made your play, it didn't get the desired effect pre-flop, flop whiffed badly. If you don't like a flop bet and don't like testing him for all the money, then the line is check/fold.

well, i figured there was some value in representing the K on the turn.