HU Overpush WHHHHEEEEEEEEE

[sauce123]

Villain is Valesco, a 20/15ish player 6max but is pretty solid and has opened up his game a ton HU. Has been 3betting very light and often recently and I am more than happy to play big pots with him in position.

This is how I got my stack a few hands ago...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($591)
BB ($1672.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8.
Hero raises to $18, BB raises to $66, Hero calls $48.

Flop: ($132) 9, 5, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $117, Hero raises to $525, BB calls $408.

Turn: ($1182) 5 (2 players)

River: ($1182) A (2 players)

Final Pot: $1182

he had 77


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($1175)
BB ($1087.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 7.
Hero raises to $18, BB raises to $66, Hero calls $48.

Flop: ($132) 9, J, 2 (2 players)
BB bets $108, Hero calls $108.

Turn: ($348) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $913.55 (All-In),

WHHHAT do I do???

[NLHE lahooozaher]

I couldn't fold fast enough here. Unless you think he has QThh or some other big draw here enough I'd never ever call this. This hand is obv just a math problem. Stove ranges for him and make a medium but it will never be profitable to call.

[sauce123]

I couldn't fold fast enough here. Unless you think he has QThh or some other big draw here enough I'd never ever call this. This hand is obv just a math problem. Stove ranges for him and make a medium but it will never be profitable to call.

lol nit

if he flips his hand face up and shows AA then pushes, we have 31% equity btw.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

You should show all the hands you showed me.

[Fnord]

GAMB00L!

[Pelion]

but 31% equity is nowhere near enough to call. That still leaves us 40BB down EV wise.
We need 42% equity to make the call.

Ok Im going to try to crunch some numbers without knowing much about his range because I don't play headsup much and I dont play these stakes ever...

We are

~85% against something like AK (depending on how many hearts he has).

~31% against overpairs (including AJ)

~75% against QT (depending on how many hearts).


Lunping the AK and QT stuff together into "drawy stuff" that we're about 80% against (not weighted at all) and we have an expression for the chance he needs to be bluffing A.

To call, we need

0.80*A+0.31*(1-A) > 0.42

0.8A +0.31 - 0.31A > 0.42

0.49A > 0.11

A > 0.22 (22%)

So he only needs to be semibluffing somewhere around 22% of the time. My assumptions were all over the place but if we think hes semibluffing anywhere near 1/3 of the time then its looks like a clear call. Still, after saying hes "solid" I doubt he doesn't have a made hand more than say 60% of the time here? I think its a fold.

[Genitruc]

god this is so tough since it depends on what "mode" you guys are in.

if you think he thinks you think you guys are in FOS mode then I fold

[zenbitz]

he's not semi-bluffing for the same reason you're not semi-bluff raising the flop. You both know that you will happily get it in with a mid pair here.

Of course he could be leveling you, or unleveling you.

[NLHE lahooozaher]

I couldn't fold fast enough here. Unless you think he has QThh or some other big draw here enough I'd never ever call this. This hand is obv just a math problem. Stove ranges for him and make a medium but it will never be profitable to call.

lol nit

if he flips his hand face up and shows AA then pushes, we have 31% equity btw.

31% isn't enough to call. this isnt even a question of being a nit or not, it's a math question. Like I said stove it and make a medium and there you go. It won't be profitable though.

[Pelion]

he's not semi-bluffing for the same reason you're not semi-bluff raising the flop. You both know that you will happily get it in with a mid pair here.

Of course he could be leveling you, or unleveling you.

If hes not semibluffing its an easy fold... or did I miss something?

[sauce123]

ummmm ok. there r a few really really bad assumptions being made about this hand. Generally I raise the flop and get it in. Thats std. Secondly, the idea that hes NEVER semibluffing is just stupid or else I wouldnt have posted the hand. I could just figure out the odds of making my hand vs his overpair and insta fold. What I want to do is see what hands ppl think he is playing this way and why, what his range is basically. We have established he needs to be bluffing around 1/3 of the time for this play to work. So is he?? why or why not...

heres some more relevant hands... this is about the fortieth hand we have played hu btw

POKERSTARS GAME #9920720079: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($3/$6) - 2007/05/15 - 03:26:22 (ET)
Table 'Walkure II' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: Sauce123 ($1120 in chips)
Seat 4: valesco ($1639.10 in chips)
Sauce123: posts small blind $3
valesco: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sauce123 [Td Ac]
Sauce123: raises $12 to $18
valesco: raises $42 to $60
Sauce123: calls $42
*** FLOP *** [8c 6c 3h]
valesco: checks
Sauce123: bets $87
valesco: calls $87
*** TURN *** [8c 6c 3h] [9s]
valesco: checks
Sauce123: checks
*** RIVER *** [8c 6c 3h 9s] [Ad]
valesco: bets $255
Sauce123: calls $255
*** SHOW DOWN ***
valesco: shows [6d 9d] (two pair, Nines and Sixes)
Sauce123: mucks hand
valesco collected $803 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $804 | Rake $1
Board [8c 6c 3h 9s Ad]
Seat 3: Sauce123 (button) (small blind) mucked [Td Ac]
Seat 4: valesco (big blind) showed [6d 9d] and won ($803) with two pair, Nines and Sixes




POKERSTARS GAME #9920650997: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($3/$6) - 2007/05/15 - 03:16:06 (ET)
Table 'Walkure II' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: Sauce123 ($591 in chips)
Seat 4: valesco ($1672.55 in chips)
Sauce123: posts small blind $3
valesco: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sauce123 [8c 8s]
Sauce123: raises $12 to $18
valesco: raises $48 to $66
Sauce123: calls $48
*** FLOP *** [9c 5h 9h]
valesco: bets $117
Sauce123: raises $408 to $525 and is all-in
valesco: calls $408
*** TURN *** [9c 5h 9h] [5c]
*** RIVER *** [9c 5h 9h 5c] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
valesco: shows [7c 7d] (two pair, Nines and Sevens)
Sauce123: shows [8c 8s] (two pair, Nines and Eights)
Sauce123 collected $1181 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1182 | Rake $1
Board [9c 5h 9h 5c As]
Seat 3: Sauce123 (button) (small blind) showed [8c 8s] and won ($1181) with two pair, Nines and Eights
Seat 4: valesco (big blind) showed [7c 7d] and lost with two pair, Nines and Sevens


POKERSTARS GAME #9920700478: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($3/$6) - 2007/05/15 - 03:23:25 (ET)
Table 'Walkure II' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 3: Sauce123 ($874 in chips)
Seat 4: valesco ($1890.10 in chips)
valesco: posts small blind $3
Sauce123: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sauce123 [Th Qh]
valesco: calls $3
Sauce123: raises $21 to $27
valesco: raises $63 to $90
Sauce123: calls $63
*** FLOP *** [6s 4h Kh]
Sauce123: checks
valesco: bets $159
Sauce123: raises $625 to $784 and is all-in
valesco: folds
Sauce123 collected $497 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $498 | Rake $1
Board [6s 4h Kh]
Seat 3: Sauce123 (big blind) collected ($497)
Seat 4: valesco (button) (small blind) folded on the Flop


POKERSTARS GAME #9920661243: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($3/$6) - 2007/05/15 - 03:17:36 (ET)
Table 'Walkure II' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: Sauce123 ($600 in chips)
Seat 4: valesco ($2171.10 in chips)
Sauce123: posts small blind $3
valesco: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sauce123 [9s Js]
Sauce123: raises $12 to $18
valesco: raises $48 to $66
Sauce123: calls $48
*** FLOP *** [9d 4d 8s]
valesco: checks
Sauce123: bets $84
valesco: calls $84
*** TURN *** [9d 4d 8s] [6s]
valesco: checks
Sauce123: bets $150
valesco: folds
Sauce123 collected $299 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $300 | Rake $1
Board [9d 4d 8s 6s]
Seat 3: Sauce123 (button) (small blind) collected ($299)
Seat 4: valesco (big blind) folded on the Turn

[Irisheyes]

Firstly I think you shoulda been 4betting pf like every second hand by the looks of things.

I think the hand comes down to one thing and that's whether or not he's gonna realise that you're less likely to raise the flop with a draw now that you're deep.

Looking at those other hands it seems that with 100bb you shove the flop always. This hand you just smooth called and hence he doesn't think you have a draw and hence he is shoving for value.

If he thinks you have a draw then there are way better ways to play his hand then this unless if he has a stone bluff. And then it doesn't look good from a risk reward POV against your range.

[Genitruc]

He trap-checked his monster in the 6d9d hand you posted even though the board was sick draw-heavy. I'm guessing he missed a turn CR there...

If you've been betting the turn a substantial % of the time when checked to, then I'd fold (since with a big draw an awesome line to take would be CR turn AI if you're likely to bet).

But shit man. It's so hard to make even a guess if you've only played a few hands with him. If you think he's thinking a few levels deep the I'd fold pretty quickly since this would be an awesome line to take with a monster and thinkers love making big calls on boards like this.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Does the push look really bluffy to anyone else?

[silu73]

Does the push look really bluffy to anyone else?

I sometimes push a monster OOP into a thinking opponent where I believe that I have been caught bluffing on previous hands. Not that I say that the opponent in this hand thinks the same way.

I'm not quite sure if I would be folding here. I would only fold if I can deduct that he is capable of pushing deep with 2 overs+flush draw on the turn.

[Miffed22001]

Does the push look really bluffy to anyone else?

considering the board yes. I thought he could do this with overcard combo's like KQ/QT etc that he seems to be 3-betting also.
Id have needed to be sat with him to decide if the pair of 5s was good enough to make the call, but he could easily have overs and diamonds and is putting you to a really big call on the turn.
How many other times has he pushed the turn like this? I wouldnt want to stove a range but id think overs and diamonds/hearts makes up enough of his range to call along with QT/KJ/KQ type hands.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Do you think this guy is leveling ahead of you?

[Pelion]

Do you think this guy is leveling ahead of you?

Well no obviously.

We either think he isn't or we know hes trying to so we're still ahead of him

[zenbitz]

he's not semi-bluffing for the same reason you're not semi-bluff raising the flop. You both know that you will happily get it in with a mid pair here.

Of course he could be leveling you, or unleveling you.

If hes not semibluffing its an easy fold... or did I miss something?

I meant "not" in the probabilistic sense, not absolute sense. As in he is less likely to be semi-bluffing...

[IowaSkinsFan]

I hope you called for balla purposes

[sauce123]

course i did... with 31% equity!!!!!!

[Pelion]

Results please.

[bigspenda73]

course i did... with 31% equity!!!!!!

Did you crack AA?

BTW you needed more than 31% to make that call didn't you?

[sauce123]

yes... results oriented wise my call was bad, but def wasnt terrible when u include the times hes bluffing/metagame etc, thought its def close.

anyways he had QJ clubs