What hand do you put this guy on?

[WildBobAA]

I have him at 21.1/16.4 after 128 hands with an AF of 5.5. He hadn't done anything out of the ordinary from what I've seen.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($116.25)
UTG ($129.45)
MP ($99.40)
CO ($99)
Hero ($127.45)
SB ($12)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB raises to $16, UTG folds, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($33.50) A, T, 5 (2 players)
BB bets $22, Hero calls $22.

Turn: ($77.50) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($77.50) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $78.25 (All-In), Hero ?

[zenbitz]

I think the key to this hand is that he checked the flushy turn as aggressor and you checked behind. This means neither of you have the flush.

So I think he thinks his hand is good on the river. Could be AA/KK/QQ/AK... maybe AQ/TT/77/AT if he re-raises a little light. I run with similar stats and I might repop you with any of those hands.

I think the sets are really quite unlikely (as is QJ nut straight!) since he should protect against the Ad draw (which you actually have). So really that leaves 2p, bluffs, and wierd slow played flushes. Which he cannot have since you have the Ad.

I call, but I think you split a bunch here.

[|~|ypermegachi]

hero bets turn and calls a shove and pukes when the 4th diamond didn't save his ass.

as played, the river is tough, especially with no reads...i've been thinkin for about 2 minutes now and i'm still undecided.

[bode]

KK is unlikely here but it fits. I also think you split with AK here alot.

[bode]

also TT.

As played i push the turn a decent % of the time when checked to.

[Warpe]

A set or 2 pair. I call.

The turn card is a good one to bet.

[Ash256]

KK is unlikely here but it fits.

[mixchange]

Why don't we just push flop?

[bode]

Why don't we just push flop?

overkillish IMO. You would be making a 4.5x reraise and i think it would be a situation where you are more than likely only getting called if you're beat.

[WildBobAA]

I really don't like shoving/betting the turn here.

These are the possible hands I put him on: AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99. If he has one of the hands I beat, he's drawing very thin and I'm not that worried about giving a free card since I have the Ad. If he's trapping me with a set then I'm going to call his river bet anyway and probably going broke. Then again, it's going to be real tough to get any value on the river from the hands I beat so maybe a turn push is good simply to end the hand since the pot is decently big at this point.

The thought also crossed my mind that he could have 3-bet me with air since it looks like I'm trying to punish the UTG limper preflop.

Anyway, this is what happened.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($116.25)
UTG ($129.45)
MP ($99.40)
CO ($99)
Hero ($127.45)
SB ($12)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB raises to $16, UTG folds, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($33.50) A, T, 5 (2 players)
BB bets $22, Hero calls $22.

Turn: ($77.50) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($77.50) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $78.25 (All-In), Hero calls $78.25.

Final Pot: $234

Results in white below:
BB has Jc Jh (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Kh Ad (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: Hero wins $234.

So I guess if we know he'll shove the river with hands I beat then a turn check is much better but if he won't shove then a turn push is probably better. Of course there's no way of knowing this during the hand.

[noble007]

I'm bummed you posted the results.
I just saw this now & I put him on a similiar range but I had a strong feeling when it came to the river that his most likely hand was a pair of queens & given that + the percentage of times we split I would have called. (Ok he had jacks but it's the same basic hand flow.)
At my low limits that play is so common and the give away is the shove on the end.
He C-bets and when you call he shuts down because he thinks you must have at least have an Ace to call. He checks and will probably fold to a bet but the fact that you checked means he's sure you don't have a flush and you're scared of it/straight so he tries to represent it on the river but all the hands with a flush/straight make up such a small part of his range (3bet pre) and its so unlikely he would get any value out of shoving them given you checked behind on the turn that you can basically write them off.
(& on the opposite end if you had a set of aces or kings or would you ever shove the river out of position, knowing there is a strong chance you will fold every hand you beat except sometimes for AK & will be getting called only by flushes and straights?)
Anyway that all lead me to believe he had queens given his pfr as well - but its all very easy to explain after you've posted the results so meh.
I would have called though. (taking into account other hands in his range as well.)

[IowaSkinsFan]

River is barely a call.