100NL big bluff raise on the river

[The Odds God]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($23)
UTG ($110.60)
MP ($26.50)
Hero ($415.20)
SB ($124.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, UTG calls $6, MP folds.

Flop: ($16.50) 8, 5, T (2 players)
UTG bets $15, Hero calls $15. I put him on a strong hand here, because he made quite a big bet and is probably trying to build a pot. Probably a set or two pair, because people at these limits usually don't raise with pocket pairs preflop since they play scared. I decide to just call.

Turn: ($46.50) Q (2 players)
UTG bets $15, Hero calls $15. Now I change my mind and it seems like that queen scared him, like he has just a pair of tens or something like that. I take the price and just call.

River: ($76.50) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $16, Hero raises to $378.2 Now this smells weakness. It is a blocking bet, just trying to get to the showdown. That is why I move all in. Villain has 56.60 left at this point if my calculation is right.


This is one of my rare big bluffs in this game and is kind of creative. You either love or hate the move. Obviusly, this is a limit where I can afford this kind of bluffs because players are nitty and play with scared money. Just trying to get more further in this game and learn these more sophisticated bluffs. Tell me if you like my thinking process and move. Feel free to tell me I am an idiot.

GL at the tables

[apunisher]

I would raise this flop 100% of the time. Ur hand has so much equity and loses about half of it after the flop.

Calling the turn is fine i guess as played. The thing about raising the flop is now u can shove the turn, after picking up a few more outs and make it very hard for villian to call with a pair of tens or something.

I hate the river bluff. What are u representing?? U played ur hand exactly how it looks. Any opponent with half a brain would give u no credibility here for a good hand because you played such a weak line. THe 8 is a good card for villain because it makes it more likely that his pair is goood.

the river is not the time to be aggressive in this hand, do it on the flop and take the initiative with a hand that has soooo much equity to begin with. THe only hands u can possibly be worried about are 55, 88, TT, cause i dont see him open limping T8 or 85 or T5. U have every single combo draw smoked and pair of tens smoked, so raise because you are ahead of nearly all of his range.

[griffey24]

I agree with apunisher. You're the preflop raiser, and you're gonna let this guy donk bet into you and just call him on _this_ flop of all flops??

Raise this flop all day!

[benny999]

I would raise this flop 100% of the time. Ur hand has so much equity and loses about half of it after the flop.

Calling the turn is fine i guess as played. The thing about raising the flop is now u can shove the turn, after picking up a few more outs and make it very hard for villian to call with a pair of tens or something.

I hate the river bluff. What are u representing?? U played ur hand exactly how it looks. Any opponent with half a brain would give u no credibility here for a good hand because you played such a weak line. THe 8 is a good card for villain because it makes it more likely that his pair is goood.

the river is not the time to be aggressive in this hand, do it on the flop and take the initiative with a hand that has soooo much equity to begin with. THe only hands u can possibly be worried about are 55, 88, TT, cause i dont see him open limping T8 or 85 or T5. U have every single combo draw smoked and pair of tens smoked, so raise because you are ahead of nearly all of his range.

qft

[IowaSkinsFan]

if your not going to raise the flop i wouldnt raise the river. I see your reasoning but i think you get called down way too much.

[|~|ypermegachi]

raise the flop. as played, the bluff is good only against a known opponent.

[PokerSwede]

Not gonna repeat what everyone has already stated above but I agree, and as Villain I'd call this push most of the time

[The Odds God]

It was 50 50 to raise the flop. I just thought he would not make that big of a bet into preflop raiser without a good hand. Usually they bet less, and I was afraid if I come over the top, he might move all in and I would not be able to call. I usually raise the flop here but I never saw the guy making that big of a bet into the preflop raiser unless he was shortstacked and was moving all in. So I was confused.

[apunisher]

It was 50 50 to raise the flop. I just thought he would not make that big of a bet into preflop raiser without a good hand. Usually they bet less, and I was afraid if I come over the top, he might move all in and I would not be able to call. I usually raise the flop here but I never saw the guy making that big of a bet into the preflop raiser unless he was shortstacked and was moving all in. So I was confused.

if he raises ai, i instacall and am thrilled about it

[The Odds God]

Yeah, I played that hand badly. At the river, I didn't want to represent anything actually, I just thought that he was weak and I can push him off a pair of tens or something like that. However, he called me with a pair of 99 and now I can't decide if he is a calling station or not. I know that I am a maniac for making this move but I don't know for him. Can you call with 99 here?

[bigspenda73]

He's getting a nice price on a call.

[noble007]

Hi dude,

Yeah enough has been said about the flop but that bluff on the end is not +ev.
I have also done it too many times where you can clearly put villian on a mid pocket pair by the river but given as has been said that the 8 is not a real scare card your raise makes little sense and gets called way too often.
Having not raised the flop for the reasoning you described it would have been much better to semi-bluff raise the turn given you smelled weakness, A queen is in your range and you still have some outs.

[benny999]

99 is a call, i think down to 66.
one part of bluffing is to rep a hand, at least when ppl think beyond their own hand.
usually the only thing thats call-call-raising that board and bets is a missed draw.

[zenbitz]

Note that your read was dead on - he had a medium pair he wanted to show down.
Problem is (as noted) what could you have? An 8? A slowplayed set? A turned straight with J9?

Why would you slow play then bomb the river - he bet weakly! If you wanted a call you'd have raised PSB (to 90?) or something.

I think this is just a terrible river card to bluff. Maybe if he PFRd, and you had called.

[The Odds God]

I made a terrible mistake by not raising the flop. I had reason, however, so at least it was not because of fear or tilt or something like that. I didn't even think about raising the turn because if someone offers me a good price and I have a draw, why not take it? Why would I make the price bigger for my draw on the turn by raising, as someone suggested?

I agree with everything you guys said, otherwise. I misplayed the hand horribly. I guess I underestimated villain and thought he was more nitty than he actually was. He made a good call at the end.

[Genitruc]

If villain is capable of reading hands then I hate hate hate it.

If villain is "playing his cards" then I like it.

[Genitruc]

also

don't beat yourself up too much about the flop. Against certain villains, you have exactly 0 fold equity but will ALWAYS get paid off when you hit (they'll just check-call when either your over or the flush hits) so it's more +ev to call then value bet.

but bluffing the river...

[The Odds God]

Thanks, guys, for comments. I just could not help myself. I smelled weakness and tried to buy the pot. Now I figure it was a mistake and that I should push on the flop.