10NL TPTK facing shove on the turn

[overflow]

How's my play here? Villian is 56.1/10/2

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($11.35)
Hero ($10.05)
UTG+1 ($6.45)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($4.10)
MP3 ($4.90)
CO ($13.60)
Button ($8.75)
SB ($3.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K.
Hero raises to $0.4, 5 folds, Button raises to $0.7, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.30.

Flop: ($1.55) K, 3, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.9, Button calls $0.90.

Turn: ($3.35) J (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button raises to $7.15 (All-In), Hero calls $5.15.

River: ($17.65) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $17.65

[jackvance]

I woulda liked it more if he had just called preflop instead of minraising you, as minraising at this limit very often means big pp.. and 3/4 of them beat you on the turn. I mean it's hard to fold TPTK but what is he shoving on the turn that you beat? KQ?

[overflow]

I woulda liked it more if he had just called preflop instead of minraising you, as minraising at this limit very often means big pp.. and 3/4 of them beat you on the turn. I mean it's hard to fold TPTK but what is he shoving on the turn that you beat? KQ?

You're probably right, the reraise OOP preflop narrows his range:

He wouldn't shove the turn with QQ (I don't think, although I did weak lead the flop) so that's unlikely, I've got AK with TPTK, so KK is unlikely.

That leaves AdQd, AA, 33, 22, and JJ.

AdQd which I'm I'm a 69.09% favorite against.
AA which I'm a 95.65% dog against.
And drawing dead to the sets, I guess this was an easy fold. Could've saved a half stack.

Lesson learned: Make a habit of not calling shoves with TPTK in pots that were reraised preflop.

Villian ended up having JJ, so at least I know he made a -EV call on the flop bet, it cost him 0.90 and he only won $7.15 on the turn. Sklansky bucks on the flop, Matusow bucks on the turn call.

Do you lead the turn here jack?

[zook]

10nl may play very differently in terms of 3-bet ranges than higher levels, but I like a 4-bet pre-flop with AKo oop. And I prefer a flop c/c to a donkbet, this is a classic way ahead/way behind scenario, but that's minor. I think you have to fold to the turn push, at best you're splitting. I guess he could have AdQd, but it's unlikely.

[Pelion]

And I prefer a flop c/c to a donkbet, this is a classic way ahead/way behind scenario, but that's minor.

Except check/calling in WA/WB situations assumes he will fold when you are WA. This guy looks really loose so I bet the flop for value.

[bigspenda73]

I've been c/r'ing these flops a lot

Incorrect?

[Jimmy Mac]

I've been c/r'ing these flops a lot

Incorrect?

A decent player will rarely call this c/r with a worse hand.

[overflow]

I've been c/r'ing these flops a lot

Incorrect?

I would think so, c/r a preflop reraiser has to be more -EV than leading out if c/c is the right line. I think we need to bet the flop to see where we're at. The problem is the only hand he probably raises on the flop is AA. Which means that on the turn QQ and JJ have me dead, both of which he'd have played the same on the flop as his actual action. I should've c/c a pot bet on the turn, or c/f a shove.

Are we ever going to have enough fold equity here to make c/r profitable for the times he shoves over our 3x raise and we have to fold? with < $3 in the pot I don't see how that's possible.

[Pelion]

Are we ever going to have enough fold equity here to make c/r profitable for the times he shoves over our 3x raise and we have to fold? with < $3 in the pot I don't see how that's possible.

he never folds a better hand so fold equity doesnt really factor

[overflow]

Villian actually had me dead to rights, because if he doesn't hit his 2 outter on the turn he's folding. He's got me in a crappy reverse implied odds situation, even if he's not getting the right implied odds himself to make the call on the flop. The only way I get any money out of him while I'm ahead is if he spikes a T on the turn, and bricks his 10 outter on the river. Although calling with JJ on that flop seems REALLY questionable.

[overflow]

Are we ever going to have enough fold equity here to make c/r profitable for the times he shoves over our 3x raise and we have to fold? with < $3 in the pot I don't see how that's possible.

he never folds a better hand so fold equity doesnt really factor

But it does factor, because he'll cbet behind my flop check with hands I beat and fold them to a raise.

The question at that point is "Am I ahead, what's his 3bet range, how many of his 3bet hands does he cbet with a check behind him on the flop that he'll fold if I c/r" The answer to this question in my mind is "Not enough to make attempting a c/r profitable"

[zook]

And I prefer a flop c/c to a donkbet, this is a classic way ahead/way behind scenario, but that's minor.

Except check/calling in WA/WB situations assumes he will fold when you are WA. This guy looks really loose so I bet the flop for value.

I don't know how you can look at pre-flop numbers and a pfa of 2 and assume a guy will call with an underpair on a K32 board, unless you're being results oriented. OP didn't post a post-flop read, so I stand by c/c. Very little harm in letting him have a free card since he's likely drawing to 2 outs if behind.

[jackvance]

Villian actually had me dead to rights, because if he doesn't hit his 2 outter on the turn he's folding. He's got me in a crappy reverse implied odds situation, even if he's not getting the right implied odds himself to make the call on the flop. The only way I get any money out of him while I'm ahead is if he spikes a T on the turn, and bricks his 10 outter on the river. Although calling with JJ on that flop seems REALLY questionable.

Not really, he isn't calling for implied odds to hitting his set, he's calling because he doesn't necessarily believe you have a king.

[mixchange]

muck, until you get really good hand reading skills don't stack off with TPTK
leading the turn was fine, but this fold should be ezzzz

villain played the hand correctly, just because a K or Q falls on the flop doesn't mean you fold your jacks.

I saw your PT stats, one pair is your biggest stat leak overall. Its good you are thinking about hands, but you overthink. You have one pair. All in is not one pair territory. Fold. Big hand, big pot. Small hand, small pot, Etc.

[Pelion]

I don't know how you can look at pre-flop numbers and a pfa of 2 and assume a guy will call with an underpair on a K32 board, unless you're being results oriented. OP didn't post a post-flop read, so I stand by c/c. Very little harm in letting him have a free card since he's likely drawing to 2 outs if behind.

This guy sees over 50% of flops. Thats pretty loose by my standards. Giving a free card here isnt terrible but we miss value the times he has a worse kicker. When we are against someone this loose a worse kicker does turn up now and again.

[overflow]

He only raises 10% of his hands, there's no way I'm putting him on KQs here post flop after he repopped my raise from EP.

[overflow]

Also clarification is a raise TO 0.40 @ 10NL a 4x raise or a 3x raise? That's always confused me. Although, I think I understand:

The multiplier that defines the raise is the of the number of big blinds a cold caller needs to invest voluntarily.

[Pelion]

4x.

My point is that when people play this badly to begin with they will surprise you with some terrible calls. Every so often this guy will call with KQ just as sometimes he will call with JJ on the flop. I dont mind checking but there is some value to betting.

[Muzzard]

He only raises 10% of his hands, there's no way I'm putting him on KQs here post flop after he repopped my raise from EP.

Ok. I don't think you can call if you put him on that tight a range, JJ/QQ or probably KK+. SO I reraise to 2.10. Obviously fold to a push or to any reraise.

If he is 'good' he may just flat call AA/KK, but its only 10NL so I doubt it. I'm getting it all in on the flop if he just called the reraise to 2.10 pre.

[Pelion]

If he is 'good' he may just flat call AA/KK, but its only 10NL so I doubt it. I'm getting it all in on the flop if he just called the reraise to 2.10 pre.

Dont be so sure. Loose 10NL players love to get "tricky". I really think if we are calling this preflop, expecting to miss most flops, we have to think its a big pot hand the times we hit a K-rag-rag or A-rag-rag flop. This is just about the best flop you could hit. If you arent happy with it then you should have folded preflop.

[overflow]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,364 games 0.005 secs 272,800 games/sec

Board: Kd 3c 2d Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.762% 56.09% 09.68% 765 132.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 34.238% 24.56% 09.68% 335 132.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, KQs, AQo+ }

If I put him on a range this wide it's a no brainer.

I'll try it again with a reduced range, I think I have to be more than a 40% dog against his range to be unprofitable ($5.15 to win $12.50) let's see how the numbers turn out.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

660 games 0.005 secs 132,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 3c 2d Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.273% 48.94% 03.33% 323 22.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 47.727% 44.39% 03.33% 293 22.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, AKs, AdQd, AdJd }

I'm still ahead of his pushing range, let's make him even more nitty and say he won't over push with QQ here:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

396 games 0.005 secs 79,200 games/sec

Board: Kd 3c 2d Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.485% 17.93% 05.56% 71 22.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 76.515% 70.96% 05.56% 281 22.00 { AA, JJ, AKs, AdQd, AdJd }

Yup. As I suspected, and many of you pointed out folding clearly seems like the correct play.

[mixchange]

dude, overthinking! you dont need pokerstove for this hand =)

big pot, big hand...

[overflow]

Meh, it took less than 3 minutes to run those ranges and post. Any situation I'm considering dumping a whole stack into is worthy of being thrown through PokerStove to get a better frame of reference for what to do in the future, IMHO.

Are you saying you don't posthumously analyze hand ranges for equity when it's a marginal decision and you ended up losing 5% or more of your bankroll?

[mixchange]

the point is, why do you even need PS for this?

[overflow]

the point is, why do you even need PS for this?

To verify that it was infeasible for his range to be large enough for my call to be equitable.

[mixchange]

Rhetorical question?