ensign_lee MLB picks for the season

[ensign_lee]

Hey everyone:

Took a few days off to try to clear my head, sine I was sucking so incredibly madly (seems like I was the only one. goodness gracious y'all are doing well!)

I'm going to try to start again with a clean slate, with my record at 0-0. There's still plenty of baseball left and I'm willing to give this another shot. Let's hope everything turns out ok!

---
YTD: 0-0
Units Won: 0.00

http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

You can take a more detailed look at my record (once it gets going) at My SageStats Page. I know that it's set to look at my NBA bets right now, but if you use the dropdown menu, you can isolate my bets for MLB.

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So, here we go:

Baltimore (-113)
2 units at BetJamaica

Pinnacle and theGreek are holding the worst possible prices on Baltimore, and I consider these two the sharpest baseball books around. If they don't want me on a side and I can get it for a decent price from another book, I'll take it.

LA Dodgers -1.5 (+154.84)
2 units at Matchbook

This bet comes courtesy of two handicappers that I respect a lot: Jaldy and Bucsfan67. I'll trust their judgment on it.

Allright. I'll update this thread if I add any more selections. If y'all have any questions, feel free to ask!

[IowaSkinsFan]

You shoulda pmed me about baltimore.
Although I would've told you not to take them.... lol.

[LimpinAintEZ]

do you like to do the run line and give up/get 1 1/2? Or do you just look for money lines and pitchers? I have done both, but mostly I don't mind giving up the 1 1/2 runs if I really like the game and SP -

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 2-0
Units Won: 5.1

Check me out! http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

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Allright, for today:

Houston Astros (-123.47)
1 unit at Matchbook.

Following a handicapper here, as well as making a homer bet. GO ASTROS GOOOO!

[ensign_lee]

ISF: ahahaha. Well, guess I'm glad I didn't. You should post your thoughts about Baltimore whenever you can, though, plz.

Limpin: I'm still experimenting with this. Obviously, one of the things you have to consider is that if you take the runline with the home team, your team has 8 innings to score while the opponent has 9. However, you usually get compensated like 40-50 cents for that alone, especially in the NL. Then you get compensated for giving up the run in itself.

I'm still experimenting, to be quite honest. I mean, I think about 30% of games end in one run, right? The favorite probably wins 2/3's of those, so the runline will kill me 1 in ever 8 games or so. Otherwise, if I lose, I probably would have lost on the moneyline as well, and if I'm backing a favorite, that means I probably would have lost less money.

I also take the total into account. If the total is really low, then pbviously I'd rather take the m/l. But personally, when I take favorites, I'm more inclined to have them on the runline.

[ensign_lee]

Also,

Colorado Rockies (-102)
2 units at BetJamaica

Neither Pinnacle nor 5Dimes seem to be wanting action on Colorado, both holding the worst prices out there (save the -110 by theGreek) while simultaneously holding the best prices on San Diego. I'll take the best line I can get on Colorado, please.

[ensign_lee]

And,

St. Louis (-124)
1 unit at BetJamaica

I only did this because the line was scalpable at Pinnacle. -124 at BetJam and +125 at Pinnacle, for that half a second.

This means that Pinnacle was willing to take the side of St. Louis if it only had to lay -125. I'll take any bet that Pinnacle was willing to take.

[IowaSkinsFan]

PM me when you bet for or against baltimore and ill give you thoughts on whether i think its a good/bad idea.

I know way too much about sports, especially my home teams.

[ensign_lee]

Haha. That won't work that well. Usually, I make my bets without a lot of time before gametime.

How's this. When you feel really strongly on a game (win or lose for your boys), let me know by posting in this thread. Cool?

[parky]

Hi I am a noob to sports betting but in my searches on the web found wagerline.com which runs contests for amateur handicappers, so I noticed the top handicappers were doing really well so I just take a look at the top couple of handicappers picks. Up about 15 units in a little over a week. I am betting very small averaging $4 a bet. So anyhow below are my picks for Monday based on the best two handicappers that had their picks in this morning.

Balt -120,
Florida -140 probably wont bet this one I don't like favorites above 125
Bost -210 definitely wont bet this one
hous +110
Yankees -160
mets -190
Seatle +130
Milwaukee +135
White sox -127
cleveland +110
Setroit +130

Oak Balt game Under 8.5

Atlanta Florida game over 10.5

[LimpinAintEZ]

I am taking the mets, but giving up the 1 1/2 runs today - And i'm taking the White Sox moneyline...

that John Maine kid for the mets is a player...he's made me money on all his starts so far - hes underrated -

those are some very insightful points Ensign - my usual "strategy" is to give up the -1 1/2 run in a big favorite game, and take the money lines when I like the pitcher/matchups - but I don't do the money lines when its -150 or more...

just started sports betting maybe 3 months ago, but its fun - I am pretty unlucky sometimes though, so I tend to not want to watch the games...I just wait til the games are over and look for the scores - makes me too nervous, plus everytime I tune in, my team plays terrible

[IowaSkinsFan]

Haha. That won't work that well. Usually, I make my bets without a lot of time before gametime.

How's this. When you feel really strongly on a game (win or lose for your boys), let me know by posting in this thread. Cool?

Aight sounds cool.

Todays game prob not a good idea. The offense is rolling right now but bedard has been really incosistent. What you want to look for with the Orioles is how their young pitcher has done in their last games and if the pitcher they are facing is left handed. The orioles haven't had a horrid problem with it this year but the last few years they just weren't able to hit left handers. If you see a guy like Loewen, Bedard, or Cabrera have a good outing the last 1 or 2 starts your probably should be more inclined to put a bet on them.
This game is up in the air. I'd bet the Orioles have a better chance of winning as indicated by the odds but it's too up in the air to bet on.

As u said im just going to post when i feel it's an easy pick.

[ensign_lee]

Great. Thanks ISF!

---
YTD: 4-1
Units Won: 6.86

For a more in-depth analysis of my record, http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978 . You'll have more info as to whether you want to follow or fade me.

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Allright, let's see what's on deck for today:

Toronto BlueJays (+178.36)
1 unit at Matchbook

Something's fishy. Sportsinsights shows 60% of the bets on Toronto, whereas Wagerline shows 60% of the bets on Boston. I'm inclined to believe Wagerline over Sportsinsights.

Plus, the line moved to encourage more money on Boston. What's up with that?

I think that Boston is still hunogver happy from sweeping the yankees and will fall to Toronto tonight. Well, at least often enough to make +178.36 odds +EV.

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I will also be making a bet on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at the best possible price I can get before the game starts. Here's my reasoning:

Pinnacle and 5Dimes, the two sharpest MLB books in my mind, are both offering the current worst prices on Tampa Bay, while simultaneously offering VERY attractive prices on New York. That alone is enough to make me want to bet on Tampa, but wait...there's more!

Around 70-80% of the public (depending on where you get your info) is on New York, and yet the price has changed by 10 cents to make it more appealing still to bet on the Yankees.

This will either be a 2 unit or a 3 unit bet. We'll see. I'll post the odds I get as soon as I make the bet.

[ensign_lee]

Ended up with:

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+156)
3 units at BetJamaica

Pinnacle is holding New York at -156, which means they are willing to take Tampa Bay at +156 if they were to hold the bet. That was the tipping point from 2 to 3 units.

Allrighty. Here goes nothing!

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 6-1
Units Won: 13.32

For a more detailed record, go to my sagestats page: http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

You'll be able to glean more info about my record and make the decision as to whether to follow or fade.

---
For today:

Oakland (+116)
2 units at BetJamaica

Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on Oakland, and so if they don't want bets on Oakland, I want to have a bet on Oakland.

Plus, the whole wagerline/sportsinsights dissonance is happening again. Wagerline shows 60% of the bets on Baltimore. Sportsinsights shows 60% of the bets on Oakland. I'm inclined to believe wagerline.

So therefore, two units.

[ensign_lee]

For the later games:

Chicago Cubs (-158.16)
2 units at Matchbook

Once again, Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on the Cubs. Only thing that worries me is that around 60-70% of the public (depending on your site) is on the same side with me.

Let's hope the cubs can take care of business.

[IowaSkinsFan]

meh sorry, forgot to post about todays game.
Oakland has really beat up b-more in the past. We had a minor leaguer starting, and they had a minor league LHP starting, which always seem to own us. It wasnt that sure of a thing but meh u would've won.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Tommorrow versus the sox Im leaning on the Sox
Schlling has owned us in the past. The sox as far as i remember have gotten cabrera pretty good in the past also. The lineup is faltering and are likely very frustrated from monday nights game. I think The Sox is a good bet here.

[ensign_lee]

I'll take that into consideration. Thanks, ISF.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 7-2
Units Won: 12.48

You can verify this stuff yourself at http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978 as well as have more information on whether to follow or fade.

At this point, I would like to make it known that I am DOWN betting baseball since the year started. Like I said in the first post, I took a break and then tried to change my wagering strategy, so I wanted to create a seperate record to reflect that. I also wanted to do this to prevent the urge to chase.

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For today:

Colorado (+178)
3 units at BetJamaica

I'm just posting this now so people don't yell at me later saying I posted an unavailable line. I bet this right now since it's scalpable at Pinnacle at the moment and because this line seems so far off of some of the other ones available at other books. I will probably buy this back later to reduce my unit exposure.

[LimpinAintEZ]

i shoulda went with your tampa bay yesterday, and now colorado is killing my mets - I'm not laying any more bets until i read your picks o' the day - better send me your account so I can send you some money for picks

[ensign_lee]

Haha. D'oh.

Apparently, I didn't post here at ftr that I ended up scalping the colorado bet early this morning. Dammit.

Woulda been nice to win that one though.

And limpin - trust your own gut feel and stuff. We all have different ways to look at things.

[ensign_lee]

I am waiting to get the best price on:

Baltimore Orioles
2 units

Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on Baltimore, at +118 and +117 respectively. The only price who they beat is that of theGreek, but theGreek deals 20 cent lines. And theGreek's price is +116.

Also, 75-80% (depending on your source) of the bets are on Boston and yet the line has barely moved at all.

I'll post the price I get as soon as I get it.

[ensign_lee]

Ok. Never mind. As the prices changed, so did the biases held by Pinnacle and 5Dimes. There is now no longer any reason to bet on Baltimore

[ensign_lee]

And again, disregard my last post.

Near the end, when the lines started to 'settle', there was a distinct bias on 5dimes's end to hold the price at +125 while everyone else' prices kept climbing. Pinnacle's price eventually settled there as well.

Baltimore (+131)
2 units at BetJamaica

[ensign_lee]

I'm also looking at getting the best price on Tampa Bay as well.

5Dimes holding a price 1 cent worse than all the other places for the majority of the day. Pinnacle holding one cent above that. Both holding generous prices on LAA.

I'm heading out to dinner for the next few hours, but will see what I can get when I get back.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Baltimore has no chance tommorrow IMO idk if this bet was from today or yesterday. Yesterday I don't think you made a bad pick, although i was right they couldn't hit schilling.

Today we have Loewen who has struggled a ton with control as of late and it's just a matter of time until he's giving up runs left and right. We should score a moderate amount on Beckett but not enough to win.

I really wouldn't bet on them today unless the odds are really good (i dont get how baseball lines work so i cant really tell).

[IowaSkinsFan]

okay just looked up how it worked, yeah i wouldn't make that bet today....
But hey, I think I'm 1-1 in picks in this thread.

[ensign_lee]

Aww, don't tell me that, ISF.

---
YTD: 7-3
Units Won: 10.48

Didn't get back from dinner in time last night. Good thing too. Saved me some units, well...at least I think. I never did get to confirm whether or not the biases that I saw were still there.

---
For tonight, looking at betting on Baltimore again. hah..

Pinnacle and 5Dimes constantly holding Baltimore at +132 while even Cris and theGreek are offering it at +135 (and they deal 20 cent lines!). About 2 bets on Boston for every bet on Baltimore. Also, 15 cent reverse line move to make Boston even more attractive.

This will be either a 2 or 3 unit play, probably 3 units. I guess we'll see what happens.

I'll post the odds when I get them later on today.

[ensign_lee]

Baltimore (+135)
3 units at BetJamaica

[IowaSkinsFan]

Ensign, I really feel like B-more had no chance tonight. As I thought Loewen was erradic but somehow he still manages to give up 1 run even with 5 walks, wtf! So right now they're winning and with our awesome bullpen it'll probably hold.

So again gj not listening to me.

[IowaSkinsFan]

lol so Ray blows it. Interestingly enough this is only the second time he's given up a run this season (one was an A-rod GS, and this 3 run inning).

For some reason I was right, but i guess i had the wrong reasons, I really thought Loewen was going to suck tonight but he didn't.

[ensign_lee]

Aww, damn. Just saw the box score. WTF? 4 runs?!?!!

Oh well. Live and learn and then get luvs.

Y'all had more hits than Boston. Guess that should count for something, eh?

[IowaSkinsFan]

it just means our slugging pct is horrid.

I've decided to make a B-more pick thread for myself.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 7-4
Units won: 7.48

This record, along with my entire baseball record so far, can be verified at http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

You'll also be able to get more info as to whether or not you want to follow or fade me by breaking down my bets even further.

---

Been a little bit since I saw anything I liked, and the only thing I did like I didn't have time to post, so whoops. Guess I get to leave that one out of the official record then.

For today:

Houston -1.5 (+175)
1 unit at BetJamaica

Bit of a homer bet here. And 5Dimes has the slightest of leans on Houston.

Meh; screw it. I like Houston. GO ASTROS!

---
Also:

Oakland (-108)
2 units at BetJamaica

5Dimes and Pinnacle are holding the worst prices possible (except for -113 at BetCris) on Oakland, while simultaneously holding the best possible prices on Tampa Bay.

Only thing bother me is that around 60-something % of the bets are on Oakland.

It's not often I get to bet against a team like Tampa Bay with a lean. I'll take it.

[ensign_lee]

One more:

Seattle -1.5 (+145)
2 units at BetJam

5Dimes and Pinnacle both have slight leans on Seattle, sharing the worst price with a few other places. That caught my eye for the bet originally.

Then I saw that BetJam had the best odds possible on the runline, within 3 cents of scalping with Pinnacle's. I'll take that. The -108 Oakland bet I had earlier is already scalpable now, so maybe this one will become scalpable in a little while too?

Pinnacle currently holds the worst price on this runline as well.

Therefore, two units. It's not often that I get to bet against Kansas City.

Only thing that worries me is that around 65% of the public is on the same side with me.

[ensign_lee]

Record: 8-6
Units Won: +7.22

Total Baseball Record YTD: 38-45
Units Won: -21.01

You can verify these records at http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978 for yourself. You'll also be able to get more information as to whether you want to follow or fade.

---
Since there was such a hullaballoo about me wanting to go with a fresh slate when I changed the way I selected games, I'm going to include my total YTD along with my record from now on. I hope that this will clear up any misunderstandings that I've had with other people.

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For tonight:

Baltimore (+130.99)
3 units at Matchbook

I can't ignore the 25 cent reverse line move on this game with bets coming in at a 2:1 pace on Detroit. Pinnacle has been holding the worst price all day on this team, and 5Dimes has joined it recently. This was the best price I think I can get, as the line may or may not fall even more as the first pitch approaches.

Let's hope this works.

Sorry ISF. I have to go against your gogogo play. :/

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Def not a bad pick with one of our most solid pitchers out there and the fact that we're facing a righty, especially with that line. I'm surprised ISF thought detroit is such a sure thing to win.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Why don't you listen? IMO we had no chance, Bonderman is too good and we're slumping. However i did think DCab would do better, although max u have to realize we've done better versus lefties.

[ensign_lee]

I told you why.

Lots of my profit has come when I made a bet that made no sense whatsoever (heavily anti-public).

[IowaSkinsFan]

yeah if the line was really that good i think it was a good pick just ragging on you cuz i was right! You gots to listen up!

[ensign_lee]

Record: 8-7
Units Won: 4.22

YTD: 38-46
Units Won: -24.01

Again, you can verify this at: http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

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For today:
Boston -1.5 (+120.54)
2 units at Matchbook

When I got back today, 5Dimes and Pinnacle were holding -190 while everyone else (even those books that were holding 20 cent lines had the Red Sox at -185/-184 at worst.

I feel I'm compensated enough by the 100 cents here to lay the 1 run rather than hit up the -183 (best price available I can find) on the M/L

[LimpinAintEZ]

so Im going to lay a theory on you and see what your thoughts are - I've been thinking about this heavy public betting when the lines don't move and i've come across a few more examples of the underdog winning - Last week it was your Tampa/NYYankees pick and the Colorado pick that got me thinking - The public was like 85% on the Yankees in those games but the lines didn't move (i don't remember the exact #'s, just the scenario)_So I saw the same thing today with the Angels/Royals game - I get my betting %'s from this site http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sport...-spy-insights/

Like today the public went 70% on the angels, but the line stayed at -132 the whole time - Royals win - there is a really weird line on the Mets game today also - 88% of public is betting the Mets, but the money line has gone from -141 to -143....with 11,342 wagers, there seems to be a LOT of money on the mets, but the line isn't moving much in relation to the betting...

does this seem strange to you? The yankees game with Pettite started at -155 and is now -222 with 76% of the public going with the Yanks...that would be a typical line movement, I would think....

Maybe this is a way to spot a few good underdog picks this year.... do you think there is anything to this? it certainly seems strange -

[ensign_lee]

I dunno. It doesn't seem to work as well in baseball. That's the same type of stuff that I usually look for as well.

It doesn't work that well in NCAAB or MLB in my experience. But hey. What do I know? I obviously suck at betting baseball.

[IowaSkinsFan]

if you stop betting on my horrible team you'll probably be better off .

[ensign_lee]

Colorado Rockies (+130)
3 units at WSEX

Line has moved the wrong way, yet 70% of the public or so is on the other side. huh.


Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+130)
3 units at BetJamaica

Kansas City, despite their winning streak, should fall in this one. With the exception of one game, the KC pitcher has been giving up runs like none other this year

LA Dodgers (+157)
3 units at BetCris

5Dimes lean on this one. I'll take it.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I recommend you take the O's ensign, you'll regret not making a bet on this game.

[Phantaroth]

I'd bet on the mets tonight with Sosa starting. In AAA he was 4-0 with a sub 2.00 ERA.

Mets have won 12 straight at Arizona.

Only thing is, its vs Webb, but if it is good odds or w/e for the mets id bet it... If the sportsbook is giving odds to Ari cuz of Webb vs Sosa BET ON THE METSIES.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I recommend you take the O's ensign, you'll regret not making a bet on this game.

WHAT'D I SAY BISH?

[ensign_lee]

You didn't define 'good odds'. Define them next time!

[ensign_lee]

Record: 11-7
Units Won: +16.73

YTD: 41-46
Units Won: -11.50

You can verify this record for yourself at
[L=My SageStats Page]http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978[/L] . You'll also have more info at your disposal to help make your decision to follow or fade (and if you look at my total YTD, fading might not be that bad of an option. )

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Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-110)
3 units at BetJam

Shame I missed out on the -105 Cris had for a little while, but oh well.

I don't think that the Nationals have what it takes to keep up with Milwaukee here. Plus, they lost a heartbreaker yesterday in Chicago. Team tends to be a little streaky, so I'll ride this streak until it dies.

Good luck y'all.

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty, two bets on deck for today:

Washington +1.5 (-105)
2 units at theGreek

5Dimes and Pinnacle have been holding the worst prices on Washington on the runline all day. Pinnacle has by far the worst price on Washington's M/L. Plus, this line is scalpable for a one cent profit right now with Pinnacle.

Also, around 70% of the public is on Milwaukee.

I'd make it three units, but that um...I'd be betting on Washington...and I'm not that comfortable doing that.

---
Also,

San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+186.20)
5 units at Matchbook

Pinny and 5Dimes again have the worst prices on the Giants and have had them for the majority of the day (moneyline prices). Then, 5Dimes has the worst price on the runline for San Francisco as well.

And, I'd be fading the 70% of the public that are on the Mets. I'll take it.

I'd probably get a better price on it later tonight, but I'm not sure I'll be around the computer to look for one, so I'm posting the price I got now.

Allrighty, feel free to follow me or to fade away. Good luck y'all.

---
Also, I'm retarded and forgot to include one of my losses from earlier, so add one loss and deduct 2 units from my record I put above. I'll update my record later tomorrow or tonight.

[ensign_lee]

Anaheim Angels -1.5 (+175.42)
2 units at Matchbook

5Dimes lean on this, plus I think that Anaheim can take care of business (obviously, since I'm making this bet. )

Good luck on your bets today y'all.

Sorry for the short post, but yay exams...

[ensign_lee]

Since I changed my betting strategy:
Record: 13-11
Units Won: 14.33

All of MLB:
YTD: 43-50
Units Won: -13.9

You can verify these records at http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978
---

Florida Marlins -1.5 (+150)
3 units at WSEX

I'm just gonna keep fading Washington until they go on their win streak. And I'm not going to double down like I did before doing it and lose all my profits.

Washington isn't even .500 when spotted a run in every game. I'll take +money getting a run then.

Toronto -1.5 (+160)
3 units at 5Dimes

Same deal as above, but fading Tampa. Although...Tampa has actually done fairly well when spotted a run in every game. They're over .500...barely. Again, I'll take the +money.

New York Yankees -1.5(+140)
3 units at BetJamaica

Even though I might be running into a great big trap, I'm going to take this bet anyway. I don't see any reason why New York can't win this game by 2 or more runs enough to at least break even, if not win money.

[Phantaroth]

Sportsbook put 15 free dollars in my account so now I try baseball...

Yesterday I took the Mets -1.5 vs. Giants... they lost 3-0. I took the Reds vs. Astros and won that bet, and took the Padres vs the Pirates and won that bet.

Today I have
Cardinals vs. Rockies Under 9.5 (-120)
Cardinals beat Rockies +133
Tigers beat Indians +122

Hope i win

[LimpinAintEZ]

still making baseball picks ensign? i think you got a lot of good advice and as a total noobie, I need some