Pocket Aces, the bi-polar hand

[altima_boy_2001]

I swear all my money is now won or lost on pocket Aces...I either double up or go home...

Playing in a 1/2 NL cash game at a local casino I get A-A in the small blind with 3 players in already for $11 each.

EP1: Plays almost anything, $120 stack
MP2: Just won a $600 pot 2 hands ago, $600 stack
Button: Limping a lot and folding, $150 stack
Hero (SB): $122 stack, playing tight and limping with SC and high cards when pot won't be raised.

Action:
EP1: Bet $11
MP2: Call $11
Button: Call $11
Hero: Raise to $25
Everyone calls, pot is $102.

Flop: 4d 3s 2s

Hero: All in for $97 more (Pair of aces, 4 outs to wheel straight, RR flush with As)
Nobody seemed too happy about calling the $25 so I figured no one would go all-in.
EP1: Folds quickly
MP2: Starts talking about the hand out loud (isn't this contrary to casino etiquette since someone else is left to act?). Says I probably have Ace's, blah blah blah, and that he couldn't call this time so he folds.
Button: Sits there for about 2 minutes quietly and then decides to call. He shows Qs 4s (1 card flush draw 8 outs, set draw 2 outs)

I realized after he called that I didn't have enough to give him incorrect calling odds.

Turn: 7s
River: 8c

I lose.

So, what would've been a better option?
1. Call the PF raise, check/call the flop, check/fold on the turn (lose maybe $30 [$11 then $20 on flop])
2. Raise to $25 PF, check/call the flop, check/fold on the turn (lose maybe $60 [$25 then $50 on the flop])
3. Re-raise to like $60 PF (maybe AI?) and hope everyone folds (win $35 or possibly still lose everything to this drawing hand)
4. Something else

So many people were coming in and out of the game that I didn't have a good read on how much of a raise pre-flop would get people to fold. Is there a somewhat standard range I should start with when playing in a casino? $30, $40, $50, all-in?

In hindsight I would normally choose option 1 based on my experience in this casino and then start pushing hard after the flop looks ok or act cautiously after these obvious flush/straight draw flops. If you read poker books they seem to advise option 2 or 3, but I'm unsure which is the best of the two.

I swear that any re-raise in this casino is an invitation for people to forget odds/theory and start playing like it's slots. That's why I generally don't re-raise with A-A, K-K pre-flop if someone's already made it more than $10, realizing that I'm probably lowering my winnings in the long run. This "slots" mentality tends to scare me a bit...

[Muzzard]

Your main problem here was preflop.

You have two options
a) Raise to 35-40 and push the flop, like 80 behind. Which is going to be a smaller than pot push with only one caller.
b) Just push preflop

[silu73]

You either win a small pot or loose a big one. I would have just pushed pre-flop or overbet the pot pre and push any flop. You want to get HU with AA.

[Ash256]

Make it about 42 to go preflop. You're trying to isolate with Aces here.

[bigslikk]

^^agreed make it 40. Your potting it is a right-sized, pressure bet. Sure, anyone with a brain could peg you on a huge hand (with only 80 or so behind... and an obvious flop push), but who knows. I don't shove, it loses value. Fewer callers with essentially the same result (flop shovefest).

[Chopper]

at a live casino with 4 players calling a raise...and one who plays anything...

i push pf. and get 1-2 callers everytime.

it looks like you are trying to steal from the sb, and someone will overvalue their position on you when they think you are on a steal.

[sejje]

3. Re-raise to like $60 PF (maybe AI?) and hope everyone folds (win $35 or possibly still lose everything to this drawing hand)

Almost...

How about:

4. Re-raise to like $60 PF (maybe AI?) and hope everyone calls.


Regardless that was a terrible preflop raise and player with Qs4s made an easy flop call.

[dstir2]

make it 40 to play. if the button is limping and folding like you said he was, he would've folded and not caught the flush draw flop. the other 2 may have folded, but who knows, maybe the opp with $600 finds it to be a bargain to call.

[altima_boy_2001]

I know this should probably go in the bad beat forum, but it further illustrates how pocket Aces for me seems like an all-or-nothing hand...

EP1: $200 stack, somewhat tight, raises to $12
Hero (EP2): Call $12 with
MP1: $110 stack, call $12
MP2: $180 stack, call $12
Now I'm thinking I should've raised...
MP3: $400 stack, call $12
Button: $1800 stack, call $12
Villain (SB): $85 stack, all-in
Great for me, push everyone out and make it HU
EP1: folds
Hero (EP2): all-in for $125, if the $80 wouldn't push everyone out then maybe $125 will

Everyone else folds
Pot is $232 heads up, I hope he was over-playing AKs or even AQs, but even KK, QQ, JJ
are still behind.
Villain shows
Cardplayer.com shows me as 81% to win vs QQ pre-flop

Board comes up:

I lose.

[Ash256]

You shoulda folded preflop. Good players can mathematically calculate when Aces are going to lose and so they can get away from them.

[altima_boy_2001]

You shoulda folded preflop. Good players can mathematically calculate when Aces are going to lose and so they can get away from them.

Had the villain just called I would've check/folded on the flop knowing my hand is worthless. But when he re-raised and I had a very high probability of making it HU pre-flop it seems like almost an auto AI. Looking back now I suppose both of the remaining aces were out of the deck because these callers aren't all playing suited connectors, but my hand can stand on its own as long the villain doesn't get one of his cards.

This particular guy all-in vs this many callers from my observation can only have AA, KK, QQ, or AKs and AA, AKs are less likely since I have AA. So, he has either KK or QQ with 2 outs for a set or somehow makes a straight with 5 cards to come. If you quick estimate that as 2x5 = 10 outs in approx 46 cards he's only 3.6 to 1 to win (4.5 to 1 theoretical and 3.53 to 1 if you assume that both remaining aces are in the muck.) I'd almost prefer KK in this situation because if he makes a straight then I make a bigger straight or we split the pot. Also, it was pure coincidence that neither of us hit the board suit since we're both 50/50 to do this.

My bet was probably big enough to get everyone out except for the really big stack and make it HU like I wanted. For the people following me who called initially it became $125 to win $284 (2.2 to 1) knowing that they were probably facing to large pairs. Interestingly enough, if someone wanted to gamble with suited connectors, 6h 5h has the best chance of winning since it has its own better straight/flush possibilities and no one else has a higher card of the same suit. But even then they are only 3.4 to 1 to win.

So, I'm calling $85 to win $157 (about 1.9 to 1) and I'm much less than 1 to 1 to win. Sounds like a great gamble to me. What are the other maths I should be thinking about?

If you assume that the remaining aces are gone and say that I have 0 outs to a redraw and the lower pair still has 2 outs to a redraw, then is that enough to tell me to fold? That's hard to believe since I'm such a favorite to win.

Someone please enlighten me about this abstract response...

[Chicago_Kid]

at 1/2, I see tons of people calling with random suited cards hoping to flop a monster/draw and then they go crazy. This was a bad call on his part, but he could have put you on AK, based on your pot sweetener raise.

[Ash256]

Shit, @ OP, I was taking the piss with my abstract response.

Sorry.

Never ever fold aces preflop without extreme circumstances (E.g. the bubble of a satellite) or whatever.

Also (Real advice), don't prefer KK because it makes higher straights or anything like that, you need to start thinking in terms of equity. Download PokerStove to get you started.

[Lithium]

You're response was clearly a joke.

Also, I agree never fold aces preflop unless on the bubble in a tourny and a call will put you all in. Even then, die a little on the inside for folding the best possible hole cards.

Never fold aces preflop in a cash game.

[Pants_101]

Why are you just calling in EP2 with all those people still to speak behind you. You need to raise your hand to get value. Unless you are almost sure there will be a raise behind you and you can push. Your aces will lose to queens about 1 in 5 times.