AA (3-bet preflop) raised on the flop

[miracleriver]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.02 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($2.32)
UTG+1 ($2.83)
MP1 ($1.35)
MP2 ($2.53)
MP3 ($4.06)
CO ($.85)
Button ($2.01)
SB ($.65)
Hero ($2)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A.
5 folds, CO calls $0.02, Button raises to $0.09, SB calls $0.08, Hero raises to $0.29, CO folds, Button calls $0.20, SB calls $0.20.

Flop: ($0.89) J, 8, 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.62, Button raises to $1.24, SB folds, Hero ???

Literally the first hand at the table. Villain is 11/4 over 45 hands. No reads.

Hero has been running bad, bad, bad (no need to elaborate as we've all been there) and he's feeling like the unluckiest person at the moment. He is afraid that has influenced his decision. Please, please tell him what you'd do here?

[bigspenda73]

You're allowed to stack of here everytime

I 3bet to .33-.36ish cuz I know he's calling, we're OOP, and it will allow stacks to get in on the turn if we end up being HU.

[miracleriver]

So his range here is definitively wider than JJ here? What really bothers me is that he just min-raises my bet and leaves himself with only 1/4 of his stack; so he's not folding. That looks a lot like a sucker-you-in raise.

[bigspenda73]

or a draw or QQ/KK or AJ

His range is much wider than a set here especially at this level.

[Pelion]

So his range here is definitively wider than JJ here? What really bothers me is that he just min-raises my bet and leaves himself with only 1/4 of his stack; so he's not folding. That looks a lot like a sucker-you-in raise.

It is a sucker you in raise but his sucker you in range is wider than JJ. He has JJ/QQ/KK alot here. I dont think AJ is as likely but it could be in his range aswell.

[miracleriver]

Thanks. I got to start thinking in the long run but it isn't easy.

[Kings]

Thanks. I got to start thinking in the long run but it isn't easy.

I agree on that .

[bigspenda73]

Christ I didn't realize this was Full Ring.

Ummmm, that makes it a lot different, even at the 2nl level. I could see a fold here if you have any read on the aggressive player. If I haven't seen him overplay 1pr hands and I haven't seen him push draws then I guess it could be a fold. But hell, you have AA in a 3bet pot on that flop, I'm getting it all-in and not feeling that bad about it.

[Liam^]

I dunno, his minraise says "Crap I hope you don't have Aces."

[Chopper]

your initial "read" of 11/4 is the only reason i contemplate a fold here.

w/o that i at least call, and most likely shove w/ the overpair. sure, you will find sets, 2 pair, etc that beat you, but "long-term" you will win out...prolly up to 10 NL.

remember, he only called your RR pf. tells me its not AA/KK. maybe even QQ down there. but JJ is in his range. so is AJs+, imo. i am not afraid of anything but JJ. and if thats it...so be it.

i shove. and if wrong, i reload for $2, and get him again next time.

[miracleriver]

your initial "read" of 11/4 is the only reason i contemplate a fold here..

The 11/4 read on villain is only over 45 hands. How much should i trust it?

[Chopper]

its just an indicator, but over 45 hands, i would figure him as a "tight-passive" until i see differently.

over all the PT #'s ive watched, first impressions are a lot (remember that next time you sit at a table and LAG it up for one orbit, then clamp down...watch and see what happens). once my HUD gets a read, i need evidence to the contrary, before i go against it. i'd say i get surprised, over the next 45 hands, about 10-15% of the time. its pretty close. they dont evolve much.

ive rarely seen a "rock" become a maniac. but i have seen them go to a call station...but at that point, who cares? when a rock or callstation bets, you need to respect it, right?

i would respect his bet at 11/4 (as long as i have 30+ hands on him), but doubt i could fold AA as an overpair based solely on that.

i would, however, fold 2nd pair to that guy with your "read." prolly TPWK, too. but not TPTK or an overpair.

[Pelion]

well hes very unlikely to be a 50/30 maniac. He could be anywhere between supernit,TAG,weak/tight passive semiloose semiaggressive.

Hes very unlikely to be bluffing but he could think hes ahead with quit a big range.

[Chopper]

agreed, and all signs point me more towards the tight and passive ranges...

iow, i respect his bet, but dont think it necessarily means JJJ, yet.