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Thank you for indulging me, gabe.
 Originally Posted by gabe
with AsK you are 2.5:1 dog against a set, with 2 cards to come. you are getting 2.5:1 on the call. considering you arent going broke if the board pairs, calling seems better than raising again if you KNOW he has a set.
I dont' know he has a set, but it is the most likely hand, and I'm quite sure my FE is nill since I very much doubt he would coldcall me with KsQ then raise my cbet on this board. It's less likey that he has a flush, but he could. He doesn't know I know he's 2p2, but he considers himself one of the most solid 100nl fr regs, and he probably is.
Fold: Obviously, I can't. It's just too weak.
Call: I'm confused on how exactly to decipher the pot/bet size ratios and such from HHs, so I'm not sure exactly what my pot odds are. Implied odds are greater than 2.5 l.d.o, or at least they look like they are.
Let's say I call and the turn is a fourth spade. I have to bet out and big. I can't check hoping to raise since villian will check behind. I lose a lot of value that way. So I bet big, he may then fold because I'm not going to give him the odds to draw to his boat, and he'll know his set has become a draw or bluff catcher. He won't put me on a bluff because he's not retarded.
If I call and the turn is blank, I will not be able to continue on because villian will bet big enough to take away my odds.
if I call and the turn pairs the board I must fold.
Really looks to me like the reverse odds on calling are bad, and that I'm not getting full implied odds as well.
Raise: If i do, he'll push, no doubt. Even if he was an idiot with KsQ. I won't discount that a small percentage of the time, very small, I have the best hand because he was raising a cbet or something. Very unlikely here, but unlikely things happen. So I guess I do have some FE, just not much at all. If I raise then I get his entire stack every 1 in 3.5 times, but of course I lose the others. If I call, like I illustrated, I lose other amounts in other fashions.
I really just hate this situation, but my instinct is that the bold aggressive play is the better one because folding is wrong and calling is iffy. I'm too dumb to do the math, but it might be that calling is -ev as well due to not getting paid off often enough or folding ui tuns enough. But I really don't know.
Maybe I just bite it, curse the deck, and play it heavy.
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