100nl do we have a bluff?

[wufwugy]

Villian is about 50/25/1 over about 50 hands. Villian is also half stacked and likely sucks like the most of em. On the turn I put villian on a possible bluff, and myself on 6 outs if not. What about the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($122.15)
MP1 ($60.30)
MP2 ($58)
CO ($62.85)
Button ($30.25)
SB ($18.90)
BB ($92.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, A.
Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, MP2 calls $4, 4 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 3, 3, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $7, MP2 calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $10, Hero calls $10.

River: ($43.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $37 (All-In)

[bigspenda73]

On the turn he has a small pair he's like folding, never so your implied odds could be good enough to see the river.

As played calling never even crosses my mind on the river, why do you think he's bluffing you here?

[wufwugy]

I induce bluffs a lot. Many more than I ever thought possible before I started upping my WtSD%.

PFR + flop c-bet + turn OOP check = bluff inducer. Especially on a board like this one. IME, on the river, an average donkey is more likely to push his bluff than his decent showdown hand here, and he's likely to double barrel this board.

[wufwugy]

What do you put villian on this hand?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($171.20)
UTG ($68.90)
Hero ($98.50)
MP1 ($77.20)
MP2 ($58.50)
CO ($34)
Button ($79.50)
SB ($94)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8, 5.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) K, K, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($29.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $20 (All-In), Hero calls $20.

River: ($0) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $69.50

[bigspenda73]

But what hands in his range are bluffs you beat that call the flop? His aggression isn't high enough IMO to call. What can suck is him turning a smaller pair into a bluff on the end. Or trying to get 2-way value out of 77-TT.

[wufwugy]

Overs call this flop a lot. AF is far from calculable at 50 hands; I just added it so nobody would ask what it was. You're right about the latter. That's what hurts the most.

I really don't know what to think, though. I've seen bluffs and legit hands here alike.

[wufwugy]

River was really a queen. Villian had AT.

[bantam222]

I don't know if I am even cbetting this flop...sure it missed a lot of his range but he knows it missed a lot of yours too. Your AQ is often good. If you cbet it and get called..you dont know where you are. Many times you will be getting called and pushed off the hand on the turn.

If you are going to bluff you have to fire another bullet on the turn--don't wait till the river, he won't fold a small pocketpair just because the jack hit...its also a shortstack so he doesn't have to risk as much.

I check this flop and maybe call a small bet and see what happens on the turn. Being OOP makes this hand a lot harder to play and less profitable.