100nl settle a dispute

[wufwugy]

Here's a hand I played a while back. A couple of nubs on a different, non-poker website are giving me a hard time for playing it wrong. At least they think I played it wrong. They're wrong, and I know that they're wrong, but they don't know they're wrong because they're nubs who don't care to learn. They told me to post it on a poker forum so my opinion would be shat upon. That won't happen.

There are a few different ways to play this, only one way is -EV and all the others are +EV, but the way I played it is the most +EV. I won't even bother with villian stats or reads or my image since the correct play is correct most often at small stakes and above regardless. So help me settle this dispute, please.

Please don't respond if you think you could be right. Respond if you know you're right.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($110.30)
UTG ($100.35)
UTG+1 ($100.05)
MP1 ($79.40)
MP2 ($100)
CO ($98.50)
Hero ($126.20)
SB ($100.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, A.
5 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 8, 3, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7.

Turn: ($22.50) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $17, BB raises to $34, Hero???

[AHiltz]

Against an unknown I shove. Makes it look like AA/KK that is too stunned to shut down.

His min-raise reeks of "I have something but damn that flush just connected, so lets test the waters". You could call here, but if the board pairs on the turn it sucks. Get the money in now.

[Warpe]

AYCEB

[Deanglow]

Just shove, a set is calling most of the time.

[drtofu66]

A couple of nubs on a different, non-poker website are giving me a hard time for playing it wrong.

Weird that a non-poker website would spark this much debate over a hand, but whatever...

Might as well shove now. If he's CR'ing more than a third of his remaining stack, I don't see how he's going to be folding to an all-in (unless he's some overzealous bluffer and used the 'raise any' preselect box-- in which case he's check/folding on the river anyway). Another club falling or the board pairing might kill your action if you just call (though I doubt it) and he's not folding a made flush, a set, or 2 pair on the turn.

[Pelion]

shove

[Khabbi]

Two theories from Sklansky's NLHE&P:

1) You might try limping from late position with hands like this one. Not always obviously but the book makes a strong case for you wanting 7c5c to stick around so they can make 2nd best hand. This also allows you to out-play your opponent post-flop.

2) When you make the nuts you push your stack. In the long run pushing here is way +EV. The book explains all the math, but it's the right play.

[Warpe]

I wouldn't limp here when we're folded to on the button. Raise baby! If we have limpers ahead of us then, yeah, limping behind is fine.

[Khabbi]

Why not? Do you want the blinds that bad?

NLHET&P suggests that open limping from late position in the hopes of catching a big hand (like this one) will make you more money than chasing the garbage hands out pre-flop.

OP wanted to talk about maximising EV, raising here doesn't maximize EV IMO. I haven't read that book in long time, so I might not be wrong, but this looks just like their example in the book from what I remember.

[Jack Sawyer]

shove

short & sweet

[wufwugy]

Lol, I KNEW everybody would say shove. Dammit. The most correct answer is, however, call.

He thinks he has the best hand, or he's bluffing. If he thinks he has the best hand it's most likely a flush, and with a flush he'll be committed to any river due to pot odds and due to being OOP. If he's bluffing, which is a decent likelyhood, then we want to give him a second shot. This actually a very good spot to for us to let a bluff fire again, especially since it's likely that a bluff will fire again given the board or potential 'scare' cards. We are not scared of the board pairing because he probably doesn't have a set or 2p because he's not going to 'feeler bet' here with those.

[wufwugy]

A couple of nubs on a different, non-poker website are giving me a hard time for playing it wrong.

Weird that a non-poker website would spark this much debate over a hand, but whatever...

Bah, they're a couple of semi-casual 2p2ers/players who think I suck at poker and life because I currently sacrifice much of my life for my poker endeavors, and because they're stupid. One of them likes a small raise, the other a shove. Neither of which are bad, especially shoving. Just not optimal as far I see it.

[zook]

A bluff c/r here is really unlikely. If that is what he's doing, I don't think you can expect him to put in another $65 as a river bluff without a read.

In any case, assuming someone's bluffing is not how you make the most money from nut hands. You have to assume they have a good hand, in this case, a lower flush or a set. In either case you want to get it all-in here b/c a lower flush is always calling, a set is often calling and a 4th club on the river kills your action in both cases.

[wufwugy]

A bluff c/r here is really unlikely.

Lol, I seem to make most of my money from really bad bluffing and crazy overvaluing marginal hands.

If that is what he's doing, I don't think you can expect him to put in another $65 as a river bluff without a read.

Sometimes they don't.

In any case, assuming someone's bluffing is not how you make the most money from nut hands. You have to assume they have a good hand, in this case, a lower flush or a set.

Nah, that's an incorrect approach because your assumptions are very narrow. There's so much more to exploitation than that.

In either case you want to get it all-in here b/c a lower flush is always calling, a set is often calling and a 4th club on the river kills your action in both cases.

Yeah, flush set 2p some other hands always call. A fourth club kills our action from less often than it seems because his most likely made hand is a flush, and that's not likely to fold for 65 in a 155 pot; often a set or 2p will get it in as well. Also, I believe this is a bluff more often than most do, but like I said, I believe today's games feature more bluffing than we all think.

If only a flush will pay off to a fourth club (which I think isn't true) then I think the chance of a bluff or marginal hand firing again is higher than the chance of the fourth flush card hitting while villian has less than a flush but would have paid off a turn push.

[wufwugy]

Why not? Do you want the blinds that bad?

NLHET&P suggests that open limping from late position in the hopes of catching a big hand (like this one) will make you more money than chasing the garbage hands out pre-flop.

OP wanted to talk about maximising EV, raising here doesn't maximize EV IMO. I haven't read that book in long time, so I might not be wrong, but this looks just like their example in the book from what I remember.

That book sucks. All poker books are only slightly above elementary poker.

[zook]

and that's not likely to fold for 65 in a 155 pot

If you call the pot will only be $90 on the river.

And if you read NLHE T&P (which is an amazing book btw) you'd understand why you should often bet as if your opponent has a near-nut hand when you have the nuts. Especially in a situation like this where he's showing huge strength and another card could kill your action.

[Jack Sawyer]

Why would you shove the nuts? He probably puts you on one card to the flush semibluff, which is more of an incentive to shove.

Don't ever flatcall, specially not when he thinks his hand is best. He'll also think you're trying to steal the pot.


PS: NLHE T&P is great. Don't mess with that book.


Very few occasions are prime for a slowplay. But this is not one of them. You made your hand, he probably has a good second best hand he wants to pay you off with. Please allow him to.


what hand would he call on the river with that he wouldn't call with on this turn?

[bigspenda73]

Assuming you are correct from the start is faulty logic

Being hard-headed about it is probably worse

[wufwugy]

and that's not likely to fold for 65 in a 155 pot

If you call the pot will only be $90 on the river.

Not after I push, it won't.

And if you read NLHE T&P (which is an amazing book btw)

If I hadn't read it, I wouldn't have opined on it in particular.

you'd understand why you should often bet as if your opponent has a near-nut hand when you have the nuts.

Yes, I understand value betting.

Especially in a situation like this where he's showing huge strength and another card could kill your action.

I guess the distinction is that it seems all small stakes players think that showing strength = strength. That used to be true, but is no longer, categorically. I called because I have seen too many bluffs there in todays small stakes games. His most likely hands really are flushes and bluffs. Sets and 2p don't 'value trap' here that often at all. It's also BTN v Blind.

[Pelion]

If hes a chronic bluffer then I can see a call but you didnt post anything to suggest hed want to double barrel bluff at a crazily dangerous board after weve shown a hell of a lot of strength. . If hes sane then I think he calls a shove with most of his range and it keeps us out of tough turn spots when the board pairs or another club comes and he suddenly doesnt want to get it in.

[wufwugy]

Why would you shove the nuts? He probably puts you on one card to the flush semibluff, which is more of an incentive to shove.

Because that's standard.

If he plays at 100nl then he probably is decent, and decent players understand what big bets mean much more than they used to.

Don't ever flatcall, specially not when he thinks his hand is best. He'll also think you're trying to steal the pot.

Very few occasions are prime for a slowplay. But this is not one of them. You made your hand, he probably has a good second best hand he wants to pay you off with. Please allow him to.


what hand would he call on the river with that he wouldn't call with on this turn?

It boils down to that I don't think you're putting villian on as accurate of a range as I am. I really don't think that a set or 2p will c/minr this turn, and that typical villians will bluff like this more often than assumed. The shove logic is dependant on those two things being wrong.

PS: NLHE T&P is great. Don't mess with that book.

Sure. It's fine for elementary concepts.

I have never once seen really good players think any poker books are anything beyond elementary. I have read a few (should be much more, but I've only recently started) posts/threads on 2p2 by really good players with information that is waaaaay beyond what is found in the books. That's all I'm saying.

[Warpe]

May I suggest a minraise?

Okay, to an aware player, a shove basically says we have the nuts, which gets us a fold.

But we don't know this guy is an aware player.

I hate a call. Split the difference and make him start thinking about pot odds.

Great basic siuation discussion thread, btw.

[wufwugy]

Assuming you are correct from the start is faulty logic

Being hard-headed about it is probably worse

That's not what this is.

When I argue something I argue it like I believe it. There's no other way to argue. I also consistently pursue greatness, and conforming opinions to knowledge alterations is the only way to get it. So I have no trouble with being wrong, even if it looks it.

Also, we don't get much good discussion in the HH forum. It's mainly microstakes, very few posters who can beat small stakes for a balla rate post here. I personally feel stuck. I am currently at 400nl, and there is no forum for me to post in since HH is micros and High Stakes is 3/6+. HH isn't even a place for 200 and 100nl, IMO. So much of the thought processes that I try to figure and use at those stakes are not really ever found in this forum.

[wufwugy]

If hes a chronic bluffer then I can see a call but you didnt post anything to suggest hed want to double barrel bluff at a crazily dangerous board after weve shown a hell of a lot of strength.

Yea, I didn't purposely. I wanted this to be about unknowns, both hero and villian. FWIW, villian was 17/9, and I was kinda surprised with what he pushed river. A very unlikely hand, actually. And very poorly played.

If hes sane then I think he calls a shove with most of his range and it keeps us out of tough turn spots when the board pairs or another club comes and he suddenly doesnt want to get it in.

Paired board isn't a problem for our hand strength because the likelyhood of a boat is smaller than if he c/minr a non-club, and we're pot committed anyways.

If he's bluffing, another club is good. He will also not be able to get away from a set/2p as often as expected on a fourth club because he's partially committed, and if he checks, our shove could be a bluff. Due to this, I raise turn if we're deeper. I'm not exactly sure about that, though. I also think having position is important, but I'm also not sure.

[wufwugy]

May I suggest a minraise?

Okay, to an aware player, a shove basically says we have the nuts, which gets us a fold.

But we don't know this guy is an aware player.

I hate a call. Split the difference and make him start thinking about pot odds.

Great basic siuation discussion thread, btw.

FPS.

Minraise/push/call are all +EV so it makes it much more difficult to figure which one is best. With a minraise, we could possibly get more value out of marginal hands. Maybe not, though. I also don't think he has a marginal hand here that often.

And seriously, I get bluff raised on the turn soooo fucking much.

[Jack Sawyer]

So, basically, we want him to bluff river, with his unimproved AA?

[wufwugy]

Lots of straight draws. I know it seems really stupid, but yes, I've seen straight draws bluff raise turns, even on two/three flush boards, sometimes flopped draws, sometimes turned draws.

Or a jack. People love to float overs. Or a PP. Like 77. I've seen it.

It's just that sets and 2p raise flop a good deal of the time, and if they don't then they don't c/minr third club turn a good deal of the time. That's why I say it's a flush or a bluff.

This particular time he had AJ (no club, obv). Which is a marginal hand, but essentially a bluff since a non-retarded hero never pays off with worse. I don't know if he would have called a raise. If he had his wits about him then calling when he has AJ is better, IMO. He probably thought I was a maniac, though, so he probably would have called.

[wufwugy]

Also, it's not just that we're allwoing for a bluff, but that he's pot committed to more than he thinks.

If he checks, then we push he's getting like 2.5 to 1 to call what could be a bluff. This is why I like calling moreso when we have position. If we're OOP then if we call turn and push river it looks a little more skeptical, a little more 'trapping'.

I like exploiting my opponents mistakes of playing OOP against me.

[drtofu66]

This generated a nice discussion. I almost stayed out of it since this aren't my stakes and I don't play PS (and I wasn't sure my answer was right )

Lol, I seem to make most of my money from really bad bluffing and crazy overvaluing marginal hands.

I daresay that this situation IS read dependent. Not necessarily a read on your specific opps, but the site (it's not at all surprising to me that a Stars player would pull a stunt like this with AJo with no flush possibilities even all the way down to 10NL. I'm not sure they'd do this on FT 100NL; again, not my stakes). Given your read of the situation I see why you flatcalled the turn check-minraise and I have no issues that you played it 'horribly' or any of that nonsense (I've never understood why poker players-- p2p'ers especially-- are so adamant about denouncing a play as being so awful or something). I think that it boils down to your read that people that you tend to play with on Stars 100NL make bluff/semi-bluffs with tainted outs more often and take them too far. And we always say it's not wrong to go with our reads, right?

It's kind of funny that only a multi-level thinking Stars player would get stacked HU OOP with AJo here since he's no doubt thinking that 1) it's really unlikely that you have 2 clubs in your hand 2) you open raised the button, so you could be blind-stealing with Ax, trash or SC's 3) it's standard to cbet 2 barrels with air when checked to HU, so your flop bet means nothing and a turn check-minraise looks especially threatening because it's so "please call-me" looking, so maybe you'll fold 4) even if you have AA-QQ you might not have a club and not want to get too involved with this hand with just an overpair as he could have anything because --> 4) "I'm perfectly capable of calling a blind-stealing button raise with J8/83/J3/53 or any suited cards and he might even think I have a set" 5) he thinks you have AK or AQ and thinks you'll call the turn and fold or call down the river with Ac high 6) he don't have a lot left behind for a river bluff, so it doesn't look like a bluff-- so maybe you'll believe him and fold the river.

[wufwugy]

Nice post.