Analyzing a CR Hand

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

I was watching a video by Stinger, a high stakes player who makes videos for the site Cardrunners.com. A hand came up in one of his videos that i am going to attempt to analyze to see if it could have been played better.

His only read on this opponent was that he was fairly aggressive, and Stinger himself had been aggressive while at the table.

$10/$20 NL

Stinger is dealt : [Kd Qs] (not sure of the suits)

1 fold
Stinger: raises $50 to $70
3 folds
KoeDaddy(BB): calls $50

Flop: 7c Jd Kc (not sure of the suits but the board had 2 clubs)
[Pot Size ~$150]
KoeDaddy: bets $100
Stinger: raises $220 to $320
KoeDaddy: raises ~1600 to ~$1900, and is all-in

I don't like Stingers flop re-raise. I think it's too small.

Stinger is getting 1.5:1 on his call, which means he needs to have the winning hand at showdown about 40% of the time. He is even money against most drawing hands, and dominated by the 2 probable made hands on this flop (K-J, 7-7). Without doing any calculations, calling the shove is clearly +EV, given that he is even money against the majority of his opponents range and there is a significant amount of money already in the pot.

But if Stinger had made a pot sized raise (to $450), he would be getting 2:1 on his call, making it more +EV since his opponents shoving range hasn't changed.

In the event that his opponent doesn't shove the flop, a bigger raise is still better. K-9/K-10, A-J/Q-J aren't going to fold/call to a different flop re-raise size, so we maximize our value against weaker made hands.

I don't think his opponent decides to bluff a different % of the time based on the flop re-raise size ($320 vs. $450).

Even when Stinger is himself holding a drawing hand, a bigger flop raise is better since he is getting better odds to call a shove, and can make a ~PSB turn shove with his draw if he gets called on the flop (most likely by a weaker made hand, which may fold to a double barrell. But since i haven't played at stakes even close to this, idk if the standard play with a weak TP/MPTK hand is to play for stacks on a drawy board like this so a turn shove may have little/no FE).


Anything i am missing here?

[Galapogos]

Anything i am missing here?

Yes you are, a pot sized raise would be $350, not $450.

[bigspenda73]

it would be $450 total

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think opp has a draw here much more often than KJ or 77.

You're not taking into account that our opponent knows what we know. If we make a pot size raise our opponent isn't going to want to shove over the hands such as draws that we want him to shove over. In fact, I don't think we ever get anything worse to call us with a pot sized raise (which makes me think calling the flop is a very plausible play).

[Galapogos]

it would be $450 total

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

I think opp has a draw here much more often than KJ or 77.

I completely agree, which is why calling a shove even with the flop re-raise size he used is +EV.

You're not taking into account that our opponent knows what we know. If we make a pot size raise our opponent isn't going to want to shove over the hands such as draws that we want him to shove over.

What information do Stinger and villain both know that makes a PSB re-raise not optimal? I don't necessarily agree that villain is going to 3bet AI a drawing hand less just because we potted the flop, just because the difference in re-raise sizes wouldn't encourage/discourage me. If your point is true, however, then making a smaller re-raise is clearly better.

In fact, I don't think we ever get anything worse to call us with a pot sized raise (which makes me think calling the flop is a very plausible play).

Folding out weaker made hands is definitely more debatable based on the re-raise size IMO. But i still think villain (if he were holding A-J, K-10, etc.) could put drawing hands in our range even if we potted the flop.

I personally don't like floating this flop since we can profitably call a shove from villain, and we are ahead of many reasonable weaker made hands that he could be holding.