50 NL AK facing 4 bet shove

[acesfullokings]

What to do, its my second hand at the table

Noble Poker Bingara (No DP) 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($49.25)
SB Hero ($49.50)
BB ($53.30)
UTG ($17.43)
UTG+1 UTG+1 ($50.60)

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with A K UTG calls 0.50, UTG+1 raises to 2, 1 fold, Hero raises to 7, 2 folds, UTG+1 moves all-in for 48.60, Hero ??

[Pelion]

fold

[Muzzard]

Easy fold, at these stakes people aren't often 4-bet shoving less than AA/KK. You could throw in some more hands if you had history or stats, but without them I'm always folding this here

[acesfullokings]

How's the size of the 3 bet?

[Pelion]

fine.

[Ash256]

Yeah, a fold is cool here.

[Deanglow]

You only have $7 invested and you're flipping or way behind every time fold.

[bode]

fold.

[|~|ypermegachi]

snap fold

[Pelion]

You only have $7 invested

So not the point

[biondino]

It's totally the point in conjunction with the rest of his sentence! Shame on you for manipulating his quote

[Pelion]

I really isnt. Dead money (pot odds) is important. The amount of it we have invested isnt. If there were antes involved then this could become a call with reasonably short stacks even though we would still have so little invested.

[bigspenda73]

the point isn't the money in the pot, it's the range of hands UTG+1 is capable of doing this with.

In reality I'd expect this to be AK/JJ/QQ a lot and AA/KK very little.

I'm leaning towards fold but call wouldn't be that bad.

[2_Thumbs_Up]

Actually, against QQ/JJ a call would be so marginal that the rake probably makes it -ev. I do think this is AK a lot though. But it doesn't have to be AA/KK often to really screw us over.

[|~|ypermegachi]

the point isn't the money in the pot, it's the range of hands UTG+1 is capable of doing this with.

In reality I'd expect this to be AK/JJ/QQ a lot and AA/KK very little.

I'm leaning towards fold but call wouldn't be that bad.

vs AK/JJ/QQ we break even. add KK, we're a slight dog. add AA, we're owned.

[bigspenda73]

wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.492% 24.65% 18.84% 116502500 89038110.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 56.508% 37.67% 18.84% 178017184 89038110.00 { AdAh, AhAs, KcKs, KhKs, QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }

/thread

[Pelion]

I really think this is a spew call against an unknown at these stakes. We are high enough to not have too many people stacking off with total rubbish, but low enough that people arent adapting to light 3betters by opening up 4 bets.

Enough people at these stakes have a 4bet range of AA/KK that calling here really sucks imo.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.492% 24.65% 18.84% 116502500 89038110.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 56.508% 37.67% 18.84% 178017184 89038110.00 { AdAh, AhAs, KcKs, KhKs, QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }

/thread

1). You are missing 2 combinations of A-A/K-K.
2). I doubt it's standard at 50NL for J-J to 4bet PF.

Here's another range:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 6524615 7436014.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 14561741 7436014.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, QQ, AKs, AKo }


And it is a generous range for villain; if you take A-Ko out of villain's range our equity again decreases by 5%. With $14 in the pot, and needing to call $40 we aren't getting close to having 1.5:1 pot odds.

[bigspenda73]

I intentionally left out 2/3 of AA/KK hands, guess my post wasn't clear that I think AA/KK is hugely discounted here.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

I intentionally left out 2/3 of AA/KK hands, guess my post wasn't clear that I think AA/KK is hugely discounted here.

If you are going to assume villain's are frequently going to get trappy with K-K+ and always nuts with J-J/Q-Q your analysis is going to be flawed. Neither of those scenarios are "standard", and since we know nothiing about our opponent it is a bad idea to factor those sorts of things into determining our equity.

[bigspenda73]

It's not nuts to 4bet shove JJ/QQ and it's not unstandard to smoothcall 3bets with AA/KK.

In fact, I would say those actions are closer to standard than the actions you're projecting.

[sauce123]

sigh... fold prolly

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

It's not nuts to 4bet shove JJ/QQ and it's not unstandard to smoothcall 3bets with AA/KK.

In fact, I would say those actions are closer to standard than the actions you're projecting.

agree to disagree?