overbet bluff!!!

[sauce123]

villain is CptnCrunch, running 24/18 or so. we dont have any real history and i have been running 18/16 or so on this table and have not been out of line at all....

on a side note, is check/folding turn better?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($4679)
Hero ($2334)
Button ($2807)
SB ($300)
BB ($1910)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to $70, Button calls $70, 2 folds.

Flop: ($170) 2, A, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $120, Button calls $120.

Turn: ($410) T (2 players)
Hero bets $300, Button calls $300.

River: ($1010) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1200

[IowaSkinsFan]

I like the turn bet because i do feel like he has to fold a decent chunk of his range.

River.... i really hate any bet besides an overbet, but it's really hard to tell if it's good. Do you think he folds A2?

[sauce123]

he had been playing very aggressively and my goal was to get him to fold AJ, AQ, AK, Axs.... T9 hopefully.... A2 idk it just seems like he would raise this hand often on flop

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Why do you think he has AK-AJ, wouldn't he reraise them?

[zook]

I like it. Without history I don't see what he can get there and call with except the nut flush and maaaybe the 2nd nut. I agree with massimo that tpgk is an unlikely holding here. Looks to me like a float that picked up a good flush draw on the turn, or a good made flush.

[gabe]

hes not folding ANY two pair here

[zook]

I think he's raising the turn with any two pair here.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Has he been stationy at all? What does he think you think of him (do you think.... lol)?

[sauce123]

he hasnt been stationy and ive been playing extremely tight at this table

i have made one overbet for value on other table but forget if he was on it/saw it

[pocketfours]

I don't really like this because you seem to be representing a flush, but the 'standard' line with a flush would have been to C/R turn. That's why I like this line better for value than as a bluff.

C/F turn. The turn check isn't very weak here and you will often get a free card (villain should have something here and is often happy to check and show). Semibluffing when you might be drawing dead is also questionable.

[sauce123]

i think check/folding turn is my best line here

[Genitruc]

fist pump nh

[pantherhound]

Did the villain fold his hand

[IMSAKIDD]

How often are you overbetting with good hands here?

[IMSAKIDD]

I think c/f turn is best, so many of your outs suck balls and you dont really get paid even if you hit like the Kc that often