10NL, bet sizing with the nuts

[daven]

villain is 46, 20 and a heavy loser over 1000 hands, bets a lot of flops. Not sure about the flop call, but I figured my K&Q outs were probably good, that i may be able to rep the flush, and as well the oesd. Should my turn bet be bigger? how big should I value bet?

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($3.51)
SB ($6.97)
BB ($11.44)
UTG ($7.74)
MP ($12.04)
Hero ($12.51)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[], Q[].
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.4, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.30.

Flop: ($1.25) J[], T[], 8[] (3 players)
BB bets $0.9, UTG folds, Hero calls $0.90.

Turn: ($3.05) A[] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2.

River: ($7.05) 4[] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets ???

[bigspenda73]

I just shove, I also raise the flop.

[euphoricism]

thatd be like ~9 into 7. My standard move is to just half pot this. Maybe $4

[Ash256]

I agree with 4, although I think your turn size sucks. Make it, like, 2.65 to go or even 3, then you can get more money in on the river.

[will641]

i would probably raise that flop, because its a monotone board, and if he bets a lot of flops he will likely fold. as played, i agree with the above that $4 is a good bet.

[will641]

correction, it is not a monotone flop, but i still raise anyways.

[bigspenda73]

so we're thinking $4 gets called more than twice as often as a shove. If that's thte case, fine $4 it is.

[bode]

raise the flop, bet 3/4 atleast on the turn and value shove river.

[Pelion]

so we're thinking $4 gets called more than twice as often as a shove. If that's thte case, fine $4 it is.

I vote shove because I dont think he folds twice as often as for $4.

[daven]

so we're thinking $4 gets called more than twice as often as a shove. If that's thte case, fine $4 it is.

Nice thinking. I shoved, and i doubt $4 gets called more than twice as often as a shove - so I can justify it now! villain folded. Next time my turn bet will be bigger - just under pot, maybe $2.75.

[bigspenda73]

At this level I'm just not convinced that players can even fold TP here for a shove. and a shove looks bluffy.

I think there's plenty of value in shoving in a lot of spots at lower levels. I'll overbet shove 2x the pot a lot on the end. What a lot of newer players don't realize is that if their opponent folds this time, it's no big deal. Don't get discouraged. Your play has to work such a small percentage of the time to be profitable and I guarantee it will.

[daven]

I think there's plenty of value in shoving in a lot of spots at lower levels.
Your play has to work such a small percentage of the time to be profitable and I guarantee it will.

Shoving with the nutz is the business, shoving the flop with super-strong draws to the nuts seems ok too! Four shoves this morning. Twice called. Up two buy-ins from those two hands, plus another buy-in from the two uncontested pots. cheers for the advice!

[Silly String]

I'm glad it worked out for you, but don't overlook the advice in your "playing draws hard" thread. You must have fold equity to make pushing most draws profitable. As bigspenda said over there, most of the time you don't have much fold equity at 10NL.

[bigspenda73]

Right, but if you already have 12+ outs you're flipping against everything but sets so you don't even need FE really, you're practically value-betting a draw and it helps to maintain an aggro image when in reality we're really tight and will usually have the goods (sets, strong overpairs) in those spots instead of combo-draws.

[Silly String]

I understand what you're saying spenda, but I was referring to his last post not the OP. I just don't want him thinking it is proper to shove the NFD everytime at 10NL.

Shoving with the nutz is the business, shoving the flop with super-strong draws to the nuts seems ok too! Four shoves this morning. Twice called. Up two buy-ins from those two hands, plus another buy-in from the two uncontested pots. cheers for the advice!