A 3-barrel bluff

[Ash256]

Opponent is 26/8/ 2AF over 350 hands. He thinks he's a TAG reg but he's not very good. He prolly sees me as an annoying aggro reg who can make moves on the flop but generally only shows down good hands.

100NL, 100BB effective

My thought process in this hand was "fuck him, he has a Jack, he can't call a decent river bet and if he does call he sucks and I'll bust him later".

Dealer: fableoufff posts Small Blind $0.50
Dealer: wickywickywild posts Big Blind $1
Dealer: R3sistance has :Qd: :Ks:
2 folds
Dealer: R3sistance raises $4
2 folds
Dealer: wickywickywild calls $3

Dealer: Dealing Flop
:Jc:

Dealer: wickywickywild checks
Dealer: R3sistance bets $6
Dealer: wickywickywild calls $6

Dealer: Dealing Turn


Dealer: wickywickywild checks
Dealer: R3sistance bets $14
Dealer: wickywickywild calls $14

Dealer: Dealing River


Dealer: wickywickywild checks
Dealer: R3sistance bets $31

[dsaxton]

I'm not sure this is a great spot even to fire two barrels, since he has a jack a lot of the time, and the turn changes nothing. I guess if you know he likes to make big folds, then you could keep bluffing, but otherwise, I would just shut down after he calls the flop, or sometimes even just take a free card instead of betting.

[silu73]

Neither the turn or river card are scarecards hence a bad spot to 3-barrel imho.

[snowbird4life]

Bad 3 barrel. I think this "My thought process in this hand was "fuck him, he has a Jack, he can't call a decent river bet and if he does call he sucks and I'll bust him later". " is the wrrrrrrrrrong thought process. The biggest problem with these kind of bluffs and bluffs in general are just is he capable of folding a jack. I don't think this guy is capable of folding it, especially with no scare cards coming on the turn or river, so he is likely going to call your river bet. So why are you 3 barrel bluffing him?

[Deanglow]

He might fold 77 or 88 but not much else. No scare cards fall on the turn or river and you get called by a jack way too often here to make this a profitable play.

[Ash256]

Bad 3 barrel. I think this "My thought process in this hand was "fuck him, he has a Jack, he can't call a decent river bet and if he does call he sucks and I'll bust him later". " is the wrrrrrrrrrong thought process. The biggest problem with these kind of bluffs and bluffs in general are just is he capable of folding a jack. I don't think this guy is capable of folding it, especially with no scare cards coming on the turn or river, so he is likely going to call your river bet. So why are you 3 barrel bluffing him?

Because my range for firing 3 is sets & overpairs (with a 5 thrown in sometimes) and I think that whilst he sucks, he's capable of working that out by the river.. He's not a total fish, he's just a poor player who thinks he's a good reg.. If he was a fish I'd gave given up on the flop.. + Given his line so far, it's obvious he wants a cheap 'n' cheerful showdown & every man has his price.

If I look at it semi-sklansky, I feel he folds J9, JT nearly all of the time, QJ most of the time, KQ sometimes and AQ never which makes my bet marginally +EV.

Btw guys, I'm not getting defensive or arguing the toss, I just feel that disagreeing is an awesome way to extract further deep thoughts and promote discussion.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

Given how dry the board is, it actually makes it a really good spot to 3barrel, since your range is very small by the river. I prefer 3barrel bluffs against opponents i know are thinking/can fold (it's a pretty high variance play!).

[mcatdog]

Because my range for firing 3 is sets & overpairs (with a 5 thrown in sometimes) and I think that whilst he sucks, he's capable of working that out by the river.

This should make you less likely to bluff, not more likely, DUCY?

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

Because my range for firing 3 is sets & overpairs (with a 5 thrown in sometimes) and I think that whilst he sucks, he's capable of working that out by the river.

This should make you less likely to bluff, not more likely, DUCY?

i disagree, but only because in this scenario there aren't any obvious hands he could be bluffing with on the river (i.e. missed flush).

[griffey24]

My thought process in this hand was "fuck him, he has a Jack, he can't call a decent river bet and if he does call he sucks and I'll bust him later".

I think like this a lot. The whole.. "if my bluff doesn't work then I'll exploit the fact that he calls 3-barrels with only top pair later".. and I'm starting to think its not the best logic. While I think you definitely get information about the villain's play by getting called here, you're probably better off just saving the bluffs and learning about the villain's 3-barrel calling range when you actually DO have an overpair.

I try to only run these bluffs on players that I have reads on, that repeatedly call double barrels but fold on the third river barrel.

[euphoricism]

Its fine. We're not going to argue about your reads, if you think he'll fold, by all means shove it in there and take that pot. As long as its not your "standard" play there is nothing to discuss here.

[Galapogos]

I don't like it due to the lack of scare cards. This seems like the kind of guy to call you down with JT too from your description. And although you're making your bets look like smart value bets with a good hand and everything, I really doubt this guys thinking on that level; he's looking at those bets thinking he's getting a decent enough price all the way so why not call with some trashy top pair.

[euphoricism]

even dumbest of 10nl players know what an all-in bet means. No ones calling there with JT. And if they are youll stack 'em later.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

After reading ISF/Zook talk about a hand in the High Stakes Forum, i realized how important the psychology of our important is in determining whether a triple barrel bluff is +EV. Without knowing definitively whether he is going to interpret a triple barrel bluff as:

1). hmm... no hands except K-K+/5-x play this way... i call.

or

2). hmm... no hands except K-K+/5-x play this way... i fold.


So, i guess i just prefer not even firing a turn bet in a situation where neither you know nor your opponent know anything about each other since the board texture didn't change. Board texture is different than psychology since smart opponents analyze board texture pretty much the same IMO: (i.e. Ace on the turn, 'oh yeah A-x is easily in his range if he bets i probably should fold here').

[benny999]

with your image and reads, i think it's pretty bad, at least in a vacuum...it's too bad u don't have KJ, maybe even QJ.

but i kinda like euph's overbet idea as a bluff. anybody else think overbets will get tons more respect?