Theory: TPTK IP vs EP limp/call PF on dry board

[spoonitnow]

Assume 100bb effective stacks in a standard NLHE blind format.

A tight/aggressive villain (say 15/10/3.0) in early position limps, it's folded to you, and you raise to 5x from late position with AKo. The remaining players fold, and the limper calls your raise.

The pot is now 11.5bb and you both have 95bb behind. The flop comes A83 rainbow, and villain checks to you.

Now if I've got this right, a good portion of villain's range will be pocket pairs, but also other unpaired hands that missed the flop completely. So basically, villain either has 2nd/3rd pair, a set, or a high card hand.

If we bet here, the high card hands are folding, and a good part of the time 2nd/3rd pair are folding depending on our image. Obviously if we bet, sets are going to drag us along and milk us a bit. So, it seems like the only value we get out of a bet are when we get called down by a pocket pair.

What about if we check? Villain is drawing to 2 outs a lot of the time (maybe 3 if he limp called Axs), so we allow him to draw for free, but we pick up some value from the times he tries to take the pot on the turn. Plus, the times he flopped a set, he's able to get in one less street of betting on us.

So under what conditions is it better to check behind and under what conditions is it better to just fire on the flop?

[bbqsquirrel]

With TP / overpairs @ standard WA/WB situations I like
a) c-bet and check behind turn say 70% of time
b) check behind flop 25%
c) 2-barrels 5%

[Fnord]

I bet here for mostly balance reasons. Standard line is to bet the flop, often check behind the turn (depends on the board + opponent) and tend to call a river bet.

[bigspenda73]

I check these flops a lot since I've been playing FR lately. Mainly for the points you've illustrated spoon.

[bigspenda73]

Also, I'm not trying to be a huge winner with one-pair hands and betting the flop can get the pot way out of order. Just make sure you realize later in the hand that your hand is severely underrepped.

[spoonitnow]

I bet here for mostly balance reasons. Standard line is to bet the flop, often check behind the turn (depends on the board + opponent) and tend to call a river bet.

Also, I'm not trying to be a huge winner with one-pair hands and betting the flop can get the pot way out of order. Just make sure you realize later in the hand that your hand is severely underrepped.

With both of these lines we're put in a spot where our hand is under-represented and we're checking one street to pick up bets on another. Also in both lines, the street we check has the effect of controlling the pot a bit. The differences seem to be kind of subtle, so maybe which play we choose in a given spot should be more based off of our opponent?

For example, I'd prefer to c-bet the flop and check behind on the turn against villains with a lower fold-to-cbet% and a higher later street aggression.

So then under what circumstances do we prefer to check the flop?

[bigspenda73]

against players who c/r liberally

[bigspenda73]

against players who c/r liberally

wait, nm, that'd be a reason to cbet.

[bigspenda73]

I think Fnord's line is all about inducing bluffs on the end, I think my line is about getting 2 streets of value from hands that would normally give up to a flop cbet.

Also, if the same opponent is folding a lot to the delayed cbet we just do the same with our air on the turn as well.

[Miffed22001]

InFr i bet here for balance versus the ATC id raise here.
However in 6max i check here more than i would because i then induce bets from 2nd best hands.
Versus a bad player id raise a turn donk, against a good player i just call and call on river obv.

[spoonitnow]

I think Fnord's line is all about inducing bluffs on the end, I think my line is about getting 2 streets of value from hands that would normally give up to a flop cbet.

Also, if the same opponent is folding a lot to the delayed cbet we just do the same with our air on the turn as well.

Here's my issue with Fnord's given line, which is also my standard line atm, and is what brought me to bring this up.

What if we're EP limp/caller instead and villain is the LP raiser, and we have 77 on the A83 rainbow flop. We check, villain bets, and we call. The turn comes a blank, say a 4 that keeps the board rainbow. We check again, and villain checks behind. Do we really value bet any non-7 river here? I don't think we do because most hands that call our river bet beat us. With this line, villain gets a bet out of us worth about 2/3rds the size of the flop pot or whatever his continuation bet size is.

Now the same situation except against a flop check:

We're the EP limp/caller with 77, flop comes A83 rainbow, check/check, turn 4. I'm much more likely to bet here since it's likely villain has 6 outs to beat me. However, when villain calls, I shut down since I'm probably against Ax or a higher pocket pair. This way, villain got a bet out of me around 2/3rd the size of the flop pot or whatever sized bet I decide to make.

So it would seem that both lines extract about the same amount out of a small pocket pair. However, checking behind on the flop would presumably lose less against a flopped set or the weird flopped 2-pair.

So what do you guys think?

[Fnord]

Against good players, you are looking to avoid playing for stacks.
Against aggro monkeys, you bet to induce a bluff.
Against calling stations you bet for value.
On draw heavy boards you have lots of value in betting the flop + turn then checking the river behind.

[spoonitnow]

Against good players, you are looking to avoid playing for stacks.
Against aggro monkeys, you bet to induce a bluff.
Against calling stations you bet for value.
On draw heavy boards you have lots of value in betting the flop + turn then checking the river behind.

Agreed.

I got off on a massive tangent on my last post.

My original problem was if we bet the flop to check behind on the turn, villain can donk bet the turn for an amount that sucks us into feeling like we need to call.

[bigspenda73]

I love the cbet/check-turn/valuebet river line against donks

Against stations it's obv 3 streets of value

Against aggro players we cbet to induce a raise if we're comfortable playing TPTK for stacks 100bb deep which we should be against over-aggro players.

We can also cbet to define our opponents range if they are your regular weak-tight nit, obv. shutting down if they give us any type of action on Axx flops unless they've shown a tendency to overplay Axs in these spots.

You can always just manipulate the pot by cbetting slightly smaller than normal agains the non-thinking robots at these levels.

[Fnord]

My original problem was if we bet the flop to check behind on the turn, villain can donk bet the turn for an amount that sucks us into feeling like we need to call.

No easy answer. I find problems like this are best thought of as big bet chicken.

[spoonitnow]

My original problem was if we bet the flop to check behind on the turn, villain can donk bet the turn for an amount that sucks us into feeling like we need to call.

No easy answer. I find problems like this are best thought of as big bet chicken.

lol

[Miffed22001]

I love the cbet/check-turn/valuebet river line against donks

I hate this when in positions simply because if you bet flop and turn opp tips his hand strength oop on river making river an easy play for better value.

Working on flop/turn betting sizes here makes river play easy IMO.

Fnord will you teach me pokah yes?