Good spot to overbet?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Here I think may be a good spot to manipulate the amount of times opp needs to be ahead to call, in other words overbet. Opp is straightforward tagg reg. I expect him to have a Ten or some floated Ace or draw by the river, but i highly highly doubt anything stronger. I would just make a standard bet but i think people tend to make their decisions on the hand on the turn. There is of course the possibility he looks me up because its obvious his range is so weak, so im trying to ask this question more theoretically. But i guess we can't ignore vacuum.

POKERSTARS GAME #12921543488: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2007/10/29 - 16:23:47 (ET)
Table 'Semele IV' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: needfood ($433.30 in chips)
Seat 2: sandiego10 ($406 in chips)
Seat 3: t0b1as ($351.50 in chips)
Seat 4: heybude ($407.60 in chips)
Seat 5: Senor Rio ($457.90 in chips)
Seat 6: oyba ($1069.85 in chips)
heybude: posts small blind $2
Senor Rio: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to heybude [Jd Qd]
oyba: folds
needfood: folds
sandiego10: folds
t0b1as: folds
heybude: raises $12 to $16
Senor Rio: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [2h Ts 6d]
heybude: bets $20
Senor Rio: calls $20
*** TURN *** [2h Ts 6d] [As]
heybude: bets $52
Senor Rio: calls $52
*** RIVER *** [2h Ts 6d As] [7c]
heybude: bets $335 (about twice the pot)(this is not what i actually did)

[silu73]

I often find overbets on the river fishy and I would definetely would look you up with an Ace here. I would be folding a T though unless you have been out of line. I wouldn't do this at $200nl Ongame but $400nl on Stars is perhaps a game where you can get away with this one.

[IowaSkinsFan]

lol i feel like i get so little responses because i post such crazy shit.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

i would think this play would succeed nearly 100% of the time when your opponent has no specific read on you. hardly anyone would avoid raising a set on the flop or turn, so i agree his range is weighted towards hands that can't stand an overbet. from my perspective, overbets help polarize ones' range towards very strong hands and achieves more fold equity than a PSB on the river.

and if someone (a reg) did eventually notice you making overbets without a monster, you could get paid for significantly more when you do have one. and you probably wouldn't need to overbet bluff for a long time to preserve that image with the regulars.

[sauce123]

senor rio has a set far too often for this to be profitable- as well as AT, he maaay fold JJ AJ AQ but thats about it.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

The thing is he could easily be slowplaying, like sauce said. in fact i just completely agree with his analysis so i won't even say anything more.

[benny999]

hmm...wouldn't u c/r the hand ur repping? plus a normal bet gets Tx to fold with similar frequency, and is easier to "merge" with when u have Ax.

[IowaSkinsFan]

senor rio has a set far too often for this to be profitable- as well as AT, he maaay fold JJ AJ AQ but thats about it.

So you think no doubt about it he folds a T on the turn?

[bode]

are people still calling river overbets? ive overpushed the river occasionally and havent gotten paid like forever.

[IowaSkinsFan]

bode its a lot different at this level but i tend to not get called on my overbets.

[Genitruc]

looks good to me but i don t know villain... so if what sauce said is true the bleh but generally vs a generic villain I like it until you get called once

also keep doing it lighter and lighter until you get called; ppl don t do this enough and it s so damn hard to play against

[IowaSkinsFan]

results:

I checked and he had QT, which left me wondering.

mwahahahahaha

[noble007]

& you dont think he would fold Q10 to a regular size river bet?

His range seems to be slowplayed set, AT, and maybe 1/3 of the Available 9-K with a 1o type hands. (They usually fold the turn.)
Maybe AJo or A9s could be floating(others 3bet pre) but thats quite a stretch.

The only hands that a bigger bet than usual is folding are these aces?

[Irisheyes]

So is thins a lot better if the flop has 2 hearts? And better again if it's 56T with 2 hearts.

Also does the issue not basically come down to whether or not an overbet will make him fold more crappy 2 pairs and one pairs then he would to a PSB? I can see him having T9s, JT, QT, KT on the river and folding them all. Only thing is I think he folds them all to a river PSB just as often.