Fired AK twice, spiked river, now what? (400NL)

[Halv]

Villain is 25/9/2.2 over 7k probably mined hands. I have no notes on him (party sw fucks up the note file alot), and can't remember him at all. His HUD probably shows me as 18/16 or so, though I've been playing 22/18-ish for 40 or so hands at this table. I haven't shown down anything crazy that I can remember.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (4 handed) Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button ($482.90)
SB ($396)
BB ($695.20)
Hero ($543.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero raises to $14, Button calls $14, 1 fold, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($44) , , (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $32, Button calls $32, BB folds.

Turn: ($108) (2 players)
Hero bets $80, Button calls $80.

River: ($268) (2 players)
Remaining stacks 359$.

[wouterpoker]

bet 140 and fold to a shove? tbh i find it hard to put him on a hand here. he could be " slowplaying" a set here since the board is probably the least scary board ever. i think the most likely hand would be 56 here for him?

[bode]

c/c anything less than pot size

[Deanglow]

I like a half-pot bet unless you think he is going to bluff with his most likely holding (mid-pair).

[minSim]

I half pot as well

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'm again really confused of what to do with this hand, but when in doubt, I'd just bet. 3/4ths pot to full pot and fold to a shove. I think he has TT a whole lot here.

I think the big issue is you are pretty much never bluffing here so we just have to hope he makes a mistake.

[sauce123]

i dont like ur DB much here but its not too bad either i guess

im prob just 3/4 potting river and hoping he makes a mistake

[mcatdog]

This is such a crappy spot for him to bluff and given his stats, he probably won't. Sucks but you have to bet I think. $200 sounds good.

[bigspenda73]

c/f isn't even a consideration?

I like c/f>b/f>c/c

Reasoning being I think worse hands do not look us up here ever nor do they bet this card either.

[silu73]

I don’t like this spot at all. I only really like c/fold or in some instances c/call. I do not think that we get a call from a hand we are beating and better hands would raise us out of the pot.

[IowaSkinsFan]

OMG GUYS WHEN IN DOUBT BET, STOP CHECKING WHEN OPPS DON'T BLUFF AND YOU LIKELY HAVE THE BEST HAND.

Betting makes you so hard to play against, whether opp knows it or not.

[bigspenda73]

but in my mind betting here IS bluffing

can we really expect 77/88 to call another shell?

[EzDuzIt]

b/f.

[IowaSkinsFan]

but in my mind betting here IS bluffing

can we really expect 77/88 to call another shell?

When you feel like you are ahead a ton just bet unless you think opp is going to bluff, there are other considerations besides vacuum value.

I mean its just not even worth arguing for your side, in this spot in general we should bet, this may be closer to marginal but your just going to throw people off if you give c/f advice.

And however, even though given perfect mental stability this isn't something we should consider, but you try getting your mouse off the call button here when he bets.

[mcatdog]

Checking this river is FPS. Who the hell knows what his calling range is, but you're probably ahead of it so just bet and let him figure out how he wants to give you his money.

I think this is what ISF was alluding to earlier in the thread about making yourself tough to play against. When you're firing three barrels with a wide range of hands, including monsters, thin value bets, and occasional bluffs, this type of opponent will get his ass kicked by you.

[bigspenda73]

but in my mind betting here IS bluffing

can we really expect 77/88 to call another shell?

When you feel like you are ahead a ton just bet unless you think opp is going to bluff, there are other considerations besides vacuum value.

I mean its just not even worth arguing for your side, in this spot in general we should bet, this may be closer to marginal but your just going to throw people off if you give c/f advice.

And however, even though given perfect mental stability this isn't something we should consider, but you try getting your mouse off the call button here when he bets.

Ok, so c/c I like better than b/f maybe.

There should be more hands in his betting range than there are in his calling range that we beat.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

b/f 3/4-full pot helps balances our 3 barrel range

[Genitruc]

awwwwwwwwwww in

[benny999]

in a vacuum c/f may have the highest ev, but it's close and betting is better for metagame.
and even if they fold all worse hands, i think villain has a worse hand often enough that a bet will be +ev just by itself.

that said, if u bet, i actually like the all in, since most loose passive type sees smaller bets as value and big bets as bluffs, plus it's better metagame vs them.
also he has a worse hand > ~57% of the time anyway - hope i figured that right...359/(268+359)
vs a good reg type you prob should just bet an amount that will balance the % of times you bluff.

[IowaSkinsFan]

but in my mind betting here IS bluffing

can we really expect 77/88 to call another shell?

When you feel like you are ahead a ton just bet unless you think opp is going to bluff, there are other considerations besides vacuum value.

I mean its just not even worth arguing for your side, in this spot in general we should bet, this may be closer to marginal but your just going to throw people off if you give c/f advice.

And however, even though given perfect mental stability this isn't something we should consider, but you try getting your mouse off the call button here when he bets.

Ok, so c/c I like better than b/f maybe.

There should be more hands in his betting range than there are in his calling range that we beat.

I think its much more likely he makes a mistake calling a bet then bluffing, especially since there is really only one draw in his range (65s).

Make some bluffy size, i like 199 a lot because it seems like something that could be percieved as a bluff.

[bigspenda73]

I really need to grab my nuts and bet more often, especially when I play more than 4 tables, I'm seem to turn into a total nit

[Irisheyes]

$199.99 like a grocery store.

[Halv]

And however, even though given perfect mental stability this isn't something we should consider, but you try getting your mouse off the call button here when he bets.

lol qft. I decided to b/f, made it 162. Then he minraised (leaving 35$ behind wtf) and I still couldn't get the mouse of the call button . Obviously I walked away after that hand.

I'm not really convinced logically since I bet the turn to get him off 66-88, 9x, maaaybe TT, now all of a sudden he's gonna call off with them? Though my conclusion from that could be that the turn bet in itself isn't very good at all.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Yeah, you shouldn't bet the turn if you have an aggro image unless he's nitty, and then if he is nitty and you do two barrel you can c/f the river because he's either slowplaying or won't call the river.

This is party right? That makes me want to reconsider this hand... How aggressive is the play at 400NL party? Is it normal to see regulars pull multistreet bluffs like a two barrel or sometimes 3 barrels?

[Genitruc]

Yeah, you shouldn't bet the turn if you have an aggro image unless he's nitty, and then if he is nitty and you do two barrel you can c/f the river because he's either slowplaying or won't call the river.

This is party right? That makes me want to reconsider this hand... How aggressive is the play at 400NL party? Is it normal to see regulars pull multistreet bluffs like a two barrel or sometimes 3 barrels?

in my experience the people who do it do it way too much

so yes

[jackvance]

I'd block bet like $100..

[benny999]

I'm not really convinced logically since I bet the turn to get him off 66-88, 9x, maaaybe TT, now all of a sudden he's gonna call off with them? Though my conclusion from that could be that the turn bet in itself isn't very good at all.

ya i think loose passive ppl dont fold a pair for only two bets on this board.

[mixchange]

ISF, I don't see how villain can call a third bet with anything we beat that had didn't raise flop or turn, just seems here villain is waiting for us to catch up

he just calls flop, then an overcard comes and he calls an almost full pot bet... doesn't sound like a strong hand to you? there's no draw, and if its a badly played mid pp then he's gotta dump river.

I just don't get what we're value betting

[bigspenda73]

it's not that we're necessarily value-betting from what I understand, it's that we're including even more showdownable hands in our 3barrell range.

What does this do for us? Im not really sure, I'm still thinking about it myself.

[EzDuzIt]

well the bet is for value.

i guess it helps us get more credit if we are 3 barreling someone but at the same time it also shows we just 2 barreled them.

[iolzizlyi]

i got lost above. can someone explain "vacuum value" to me? and also what is metagame?

[benny999]

i got lost above. can someone explain "vacuum value" to me? and also what is metagame?

those are related. lets say you bet and he folds all worse hands, then it was a bad bet in a vacuum. but if he starts calling you a lot more in the future, then it had value for the metagame, which is the effect this hand has on later hands.

[iolzizlyi]

ok metagame makes sense but i still don't know what the vacuum is.

[Genitruc]

vacuum = changing factors like table flow, history, implications on future decisions don t exist

kinda like in science experiments conducted "in a vacuum" to nullify air pressure changes, temperature changes etc

[mixchange]

ISF, any chance you could answer my question? Or someone else... I'm still pretty curious here