CRUSHING 50NL -- $1000 10pt/bb100 bet

[mixchange]

I took a $1000 bet that I could make minimum 10pt/bb100 in 50NL over 10K hands. Extra $250 bonus if I can stay over 13ptbb/100, $250 bonus for him if I am under 7pt. I have until Dec 20th but this will be done much sooner.

How realistic of a goal do you think this is?

Who thinks they could do this?
Who thinks *I* can do it?

Other Goals:

- Start using ACEhud to my advantage a lot more. I really haven't made effective use of it yet. Anyone have a good Pokerstars layout?
- Study my PokerTracker stats much better to improve my game. Is there any way for PT to isolate just one Limit and see all the stats based on that? Can any software do that, say Hold 'em manager? Pt is starting to seem kinda weak to me.

I currently play 200nl at 1-2ptbb, and this friend and I were discussing the differences between the limits. He plays 25 and 50nl. He has taken shots at 100 but has had to drop down. I haven't been playing 50nl in awhile but I think I can make 10pt, the 13 will be a lot harder and probably won't happen. He thinks there isn't a huge diff between 50, 100, and 200nl... especially not enough for me to crush the 50s considering my mediocre 200nl winrate. I'm also mixing in 200nl sessions so that my 200nl isn't messed up too much when i move back fully.

I've been going about a week and after 3K, I am at 11.5, including 2 recent 2 outers on the river for $140 total lost

One big balance is that I could play fewer tables and increase the winrate and do it in more time. I started out playing 4 tables just to get a feel again for 50NL and to keep the winrate high, but now I'im up to 6 tables. I'm not sure if going for the 13pt/bb100 is worth the time...I'd def need to do 4 tables only. I was doign 15 for a lil at 4, and i think its def less @ 8. If I go under 10, im gonna cut tables down.

I'm playing 22/11, playing a few more limped pots with trashy cards cuz I think I can outplay ppl post flop, where you look at my 200nl, and I am 17/10. The bottom limit is 50nl HU which I play ocassionally but suck at. sStat suggestions welcome, especially comparing my 50 and 200nl results






Favorite hand so far... especially his call of the re-raise. This guy is 94/50!!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($8.25)
Button ($49.25)
SB ($50)
Hero ($48.50)
UTG ($40.55)
MP ($94.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9.
UTG calls $0.50, MP raises to $5, 3 folds, Hero calls $4.50, UTG folds.

Flop: ($10.75) 9, 3, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($30.75) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($30.75) J (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP raises to $25, Hero raises to $33.5, MP calls $8.50.

Final Pot: $97.75

Results in white below:
Hero has 9d 9c (four of a kind, nines).
MP has 3s 6c (two pair, nines and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $97.75.


This hand is bizarre... he's run up a huge profit somehow now...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

UTG ($5.50)
MP ($64.50)
CO ($50.20)
Hero ($88.10)
SB ($29.25)
BB ($125.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
2 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BB calls $6.50, CO calls $5.

Flop: ($21.25) , , (3 players)
BB bets $7, CO calls $7, Hero folds.

Turn: ($35.25) (2 players)
BB bets $7.5, CO raises to $36.2, BB calls $28.70.

River: ($107.65) (2 players)

Final Pot: $107.65

Results in white below:
BB has 5s 6d (four of a kind, sixes).
CO has Ts Th (full house, sixes full of tens).
Outcome: BB wins $107.65.

[euphoricism]

Can I get in on this?

[mixchange]

No. I think it's risky, but it will motivate me to play well

[IowaSkinsFan]

horrible bet but we all make them sometimes (yep sauce i know)

[mixchange]

isf, can you describe your reasons why more?

i.e. bad because sample size not big enough?
bad because winrate is way too high for most anyone except top players?
badbecause I should get 2-1 or 3-1?

I.e. I'm pretty interested to hear what ppl here think, especially the 200nl+ players

do you think you guys could do it?

imo the 50nl play is MUCH worse than the 100nl even. On weekends, its very, very bad.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($28.15)
Button ($30.60)
SB ($61.10)
BB ($14.40)
UTG ($50)
Hero ($98.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, K.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, CO raises to $3.5, 1 fold, SB calls $3.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $98.85, CO calls $24.65 (All-In), SB folds.

Flop: ($60.30) K, T, 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($60.30) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($60.30) T (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $60.30

villain had Ace 5 offsuit. Free monies...


Euph is giving me action, 3-1! anyone else want to give me 3-1?

[PapalRage]

it will most likely be close due to the variance factor, the good thing though is even if you fail you should make at least close to the 1k. GL.

[holdin2]

bad because winrate is way too high for most anyone except top players?

Well, I don't think I'm that great and I'm running at 9bb/100 over the last 9,500 hands at Pokerstars playing a mixture of 50nl and 100nl.

[sauce123]

this is a really bad bet for you, i dont think a hsnl player would be more than a 60/40 favorite

[Miffed22001]

what site?
on euro sites 10bbs is possible, on US ones its not unless you have a super heater i dont think

[Numbr2intheWorld]

If i 4-tabled, datamined all day and only picked the fishiest of fishy tables, and got 11 hours of sleep every night, I think i'd have about a 50/50 chance of winning this bet. And that's optimistic.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

... tell me you didn't actually take this bet.

[bigspenda73]

you're going to have a 2-3k hand stretch where you breakeven or lose some buyins

b/c of that, pretty tough. I did 8ptbb/100 over 8k hands at 50nl about 4 months ago at AP. Felt I had a pretty huge edge too.

[|~|ypermegachi]

i suppose if you really wanted to win this bet you could play like 100k hands and pick a 10k section where you ran > 10ptbb/100.

[Ash256]

what site?
on euro sites 10bbs is possible, on US ones its not unless you have a super heater i dont think

I agree.

+ I reckon it's possible if you 1-2 table and get quality reads and play for a shitton of hands, but as it is, nah.

[Ash256]

what site?
on euro sites 10bbs is possible, on US ones its not unless you have a super heater i dont think

I agree.

+ I reckon it's possible if you 1-2 table and get quality reads and play for a shitton of hands, but as it is, nah.

[mixchange]

I took the bet yes, I would be interested in longer, more descriptive responses as to why you think I will fail and what odds you would ask for to take such a bet

he is giving me some odds, $750 I have to pay if I'm between 7-10. So there is some incentive...he gets the full 1k if im under 7. I didnt explain that properly. Got too into posting my stats and hands and didnt read the original post well enough

I'm almost at 5K and he is considering negotiating some new terms because I'm still at 11pt halfway in

what kind of protection do you think I should negotiate? Its looking like 8pt will be a cinch. What terms would you try to now negotiate?

[sauce123]

I took the bet yes, I would be interested in longer, more descriptive responses as to why you think I will fail and what odds you would ask for to take such a bet

he is giving me some odds, $750 I have to pay if I'm between 7-10. So there is some incentive...he gets the full 1k if im under 7. I didnt explain that properly. Got too into posting my stats and hands and didnt read the original post well enough

I'm almost at 5K and he is considering negotiating some new terms because I'm still at 11pt halfway in

what kind of protection do you think I should negotiate? Its looking like 8pt will be a cinch. What terms would you try to now negotiate?

go 900 buy out

negotiate to 750

[mixchange]

i don't get what you are proposing sauce

[Galapogos]

He's saying pay the man 900 now and quit the bet so you don't pay him 1k later.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Just find the cheapest way you can end the bet.

[euphoricism]

I love this thread so much.

[pankfish]

It would be a better bet if you got 100k hands to have a 10k stretch with the proposed win rate in.

[EzDuzIt]

lol this is a really bad bet

[mixchange]

hehe

doubting, negativity, and jokes. This is like 2+2 or something If anyone has some strategy ideas let me know.

I'm gonna negotiate a break-even area, he's very scared of losing at this point considering im running well.

if anything I might negotiate $300 for me and the bet is over.

[sauce123]

mix- if u r 11 500 hands in u have 600 equity or so in this bet. +600.

so tell him u will call off bet if he pays u 850 and bargain down as far as 650.

lol at paying him monies now

[Alexos]

yes its a horrible bet, how the hell can u seriously expect to run at 10ptbb w/out running hot?

Obviously some guys can do it, but you're not CTS or something..

Even if u say 5ptbb and the bet is marginal for you. Just my thoughts.

But now you're halfway and at 11ptbb, so congrats anyways maybe you'll get there:P

[thizzSantaCruz]

If it looks like its a cinch to get 10ptBB I say negotiate so he pays you off and the bets over. The actual number is up to you....750 is good...just get as much as you possibly can with out being a dick, because the guy is your friend from a long time ago..

[IowaSkinsFan]

even if your a longterm 10ptBB/100 at 50nl, which you likely aren't, this would be flipping no?

[biondino]

Mixchange, honestly, I don't see why you're finding this hard to understand. It is real, blinkered arrogance on your part to think you can win this bet simply because you are a skilful player. IF you are indeed skilful enough to beat 50NL at 10ptbb/100 over the long term, then the bet is neutral EV. But you're not, I'll wager, because I honestly don't know anyone who is. 50NL may seem easy for 5,000 hands but I'll bet you're running slightly hot. I was running at 20ptbb/100 for my first 4k hands at 50nl/pl this month - since then I've had an 11 buyin downswing. I'm not suddenly a shitty player (haha I've always been a shitty player, but seriously folks), it's just what happens.

50N L is a goo0d deal easier than 200NL but it's not a 10ptbb/100 game. If you make it, you'll make it through luck; if you don't, you'll no doubt whine about taking bad beats because of course you're skilful enough to win it. I don't buy that.

Terrible idea, you won't be able to do this WR, its very difficult due to variance

This is 100% false. If you DO do it it'll be down to variance. Unless you're a poker god, you're not good enough to win this bet on skill alone, and even if you were, the variance factor makes it almost pointless. Please don't take this as an insult because all I'm criticising is your estimation of your own talent vs the softness of 50NL.

[biondino]

Just for laughs:

[Miffed22001]

you're going to have a 2-3k hand stretch where you breakeven or lose some buyins

b/c of that, pretty tough. I did 8ptbb/100 over 8k hands at 50nl about 4 months ago at AP. Felt I had a pretty huge edge too.

that game is much more beatable than that on a a heater , your winrate is long term sustainable in that game IMO.

[Dislexsik]

Its very realistic to achieve this goal when u can play deepstacked.I used to play on tribecca where u could buy in for 200BB's and i had 20BB/100 over 17k hands.

[Cocco_Bill]

I would do this getting 3 to 1 no less. (with a bet of at least $5k)

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I beg you to take a little money and run run run.

[Jack Sawyer]

Its very realistic to achieve this goal when u can play deepstacked.I used to play on tribecca where u could buy in for 200BB's and i had 20BB/100 over 17k hands.

which is exactly why I don't understand why people want to play with 20BB's/ 50BB's

[|~|ypermegachi]

Its very realistic to achieve this goal when u can play deepstacked.I used to play on tribecca where u could buy in for 200BB's and i had 20BB/100 over 17k hands.

which is exactly why I don't understand why people want to play with 20BB's/ 50BB's

it's relatively easier to play a short stack than a deep stack. on average, your decisions are much easier to make, and there are less options (because often you have less streets to worry about). and because of this, you can tack on 2 or 3 more tables than you normally would, and while your ptbb/100 might drop, your $/hr should go up.

[jackvance]

If you get just a few nasty coolers or an offday, the 10ptBB/100 winrate can be over real quick..

[bigspenda73]

you're going to have a 2-3k hand stretch where you breakeven or lose some buyins

b/c of that, pretty tough. I did 8ptbb/100 over 8k hands at 50nl about 4 months ago at AP. Felt I had a pretty huge edge too.

that game is much more beatable than that on a a heater , your winrate is long term sustainable in that game IMO.

Not if you factor in the BBJ rake that came about destroying winrates a 2ptbb/100. I mean, you don't have to think about that stuff, cuz you'll win the damn thing, but I have to take it into account.

[|~|ypermegachi]

with so many bonus reloads and rakeback i find the BBJ rake to be a non issue.

[Miffed22001]

you're going to have a 2-3k hand stretch where you breakeven or lose some buyins

b/c of that, pretty tough. I did 8ptbb/100 over 8k hands at 50nl about 4 months ago at AP. Felt I had a pretty huge edge too.

that game is much more beatable than that on a a heater , your winrate is long term sustainable in that game IMO.

Not if you factor in the BBJ rake that came about destroying winrates a 2ptbb/100. I mean, you don't have to think about that stuff, cuz you'll win the damn thing, but I have to take it into account.

irrelevant. Those games are very soft considering USD players have access to them.
Almost on a par with the typical euro game, which is full of calling station suckout merchants

[bigspenda73]

IRRELEVANT?

Are you seriously incapable of thinking? 2ptbb is 2ptbb, like if I would have run 11ptbb/100 which is fucking tough enough my actual winrate is 9ptbb/100 due to the extra rake. Seriously, I wonder sometimes what is going on in your mind.

[Miffed22001]

IRRELEVANT?

Are you seriously incapable of thinking? 2ptbb is 2ptbb, like if I would have run 11ptbb/100 which is fucking tough enough my actual winrate is 9ptbb/100 due to the extra rake. Seriously, I wonder sometimes what is going on in your mind.

without being an ass, you have a lot to say for someone who hasnt even graduated from donkstakes yet.

Also, to sound like an ass, if you original post was written in english i might be able to comprehend what you are trying to say.

[will641]

well i was beating 50 NL for over 10 ptbb/100 for about my first 10 k hands and im not very good, but i ran very very well.

[thizzSantaCruz]

why is this thread turning into a bitch fest?

[mixchange]

[bigspenda73]

IRRELEVANT?

Are you seriously incapable of thinking? 2ptbb is 2ptbb, like if I would have run 11ptbb/100 which is fucking tough enough my actual winrate is 9ptbb/100 due to the extra rake. Seriously, I wonder sometimes what is going on in your mind.

without being an ass, you have a lot to say for someone who hasnt even graduated from donkstakes yet.

Also, to sound like an ass, if you original post was written in english i might be able to comprehend what you are trying to say.

I'd rather be beating my "donkstakes" at 100nl than donating back my BBJ winnings to the mid-stakes communities on your self-proclaimed "softer sites". It must be tough to run bad all the time. Hell, look at is this way, there's always bonus-whoring and rakeback to cover up a negative winrate.

[Jack Sawyer]

Why can't we all get along?


C'mon boys, play nice now.

[mixchange]

They're just jealous that they're not Level headed enough to crush @ 10bb, Yanno?

[biondino]

Oi, I put time and effort into dissing you up there, and now you're saying it's a level? SURE it is, if you say so

[badgers]

Some form of grudge match is needed imo.

[Chopper]

i had my calcs of BBJ rakes much higher than 2/100, personally.

but that said, i want to know (since we are relatively off-topic now)...

at what winrate would this be an EVEN MONEY proposition? if 10 is too high, would we look for 7? 5? any suggestions?

[|~|ypermegachi]

i had my calcs of BBJ rakes much higher than 2/100, personally.

but that said, i want to know (since we are relatively off-topic now)...

at what winrate would this be an EVEN MONEY proposition? if 10 is too high, would we look for 7? 5? any suggestions?

if you're a high volume player, i suspect it would be a problem because there weren't be enough bonus reloads, thus you would "break-even" with rakeback. but for medium volume, there's plenty enough reloads such that the bonus would cancel out the BBJ rake, and you would make the extra from rakeback.

[bigspenda73]

But those (rb/bonus) aren't included in winrates while rake/bbj rake are.

[biondino]

Let's say we were hypothetically talking a 200k hand challenge, rather than 10k - I reckon a ptbb/100 of 6-7 at 50NL would be even money for a good 200NL player.

[|~|ypermegachi]

But those (rb/bonus) aren't included in winrates while rake/bbj rake are.

i guess if we want to be perfectly clear OP would need to state clearly with the other guy on how winrate is calculated, whether it includes or excludes rakeback, bonuses, BBJ, etc.

[Alexos]

Let's say we were hypothetically talking a 200k hand challenge, rather than 10k - I reckon a ptbb/100 of 6-7 at 50NL would be even money for a good 200NL player.

right, and even then who would bother taking such a bet, it would need to be over $20k to make it worthwhile.

Even if u tell me to run at 3ptbb over 200k hands at 50nl for $20k i prolly wouldnt do it. --> and i still play a lot of 200nl these days..

[Chopper]

allright, now you have me wondering...just HOW MUCH is the rake at the lower levels?

please check the math...assuming PT is accurate.

at 10NL, i have 4,379 hands in my newer db. or, 43.8 blocks of 100. i have paid $43.70 in rake. converting to bb's, $43.70 / .20(ptbb at 10NL), i get 218.5 bb's paid. divide by 43.8 blocks of 100, and i get 4.9888 bb's/100? can that be right?

at 25NL, i have 23,323 hands, or 233.23 100 hand blocks. i have paid in $446.40 to rake. $446.40/.5 = 892.8 bb's. divided by 233.23 = 3.828 bb's/100?

the vast majority of those hands are from AP. if those are correct, what a screw job. those arent even BBJ tables because they dont offer them below 50NL.

is PT inaccurate, or am i doing something wrong? that just seems awfully high.

[Miffed22001]

IRRELEVANT?

Are you seriously incapable of thinking? 2ptbb is 2ptbb, like if I would have run 11ptbb/100 which is fucking tough enough my actual winrate is 9ptbb/100 due to the extra rake. Seriously, I wonder sometimes what is going on in your mind.

without being an ass, you have a lot to say for someone who hasnt even graduated from donkstakes yet.

Also, to sound like an ass, if you original post was written in english i might be able to comprehend what you are trying to say.

I'd rather be beating my "donkstakes" at 100nl than donating back my BBJ winnings to the mid-stakes communities on your self-proclaimed "softer sites". It must be tough to run bad all the time. Hell, look at is this way, there's always bonus-whoring and rakeback to cover up a negative winrate.

hmmm i lost 3-4k over the last 2-3 months, im now back up 3-4k and breakeven.
looks like i nearly fixed that leak...

[|~|ypermegachi]

$10NL, so ptbb = 2 * $0.10 = $0.20
$43.70 / 4379 hands = $0.0099/hand in rake.
or
218.5ptbb / 4379 hands = 0.049ptbb/hand in rake.
* 100
= 4.9ptbb/100

so...yeah, your math is right, cuz i did it a different way and got the same result.

[mixchange]

Oi, I put time and effort into dissing you up there, and now you're saying it's a level? SURE it is, if you say so

u dont know what level this level is on

is there a bet?
maybe there is

is it $1000?
def not

was there originally a bet?
no

what was the date of my last Hot Carl?
9/11/2001

[biondino]

Too gay; didn't read

[bode]

ha ha. so did you log 10k hands yet?

[Genitruc]

shenanigans!

[Chopper]

$10NL, so ptbb = 2 * $0.10 = $0.20
$43.70 / 4379 hands = $0.0099/hand in rake.
or
218.5ptbb / 4379 hands = 0.049ptbb/hand in rake.
* 100
= 4.9ptbb/100

so...yeah, your math is right, cuz i did it a different way and got the same result.

WOW!! my ass hurts like the time in prison when i shared a bunk with a guy named Tiny.

...brings new meaning to the name SPOONITNOW, doesnt it?

[Chopper]

what was the date of my last Hot Carl?
9/11/2001

BOOOOOOOOO. poor taste.