river bet size

[pgil]

Opp has a large stack, is a regular, and seems kind of nittish (PP's limped from EP, not really out of line pre or post flop, etc.)

He has 44 here always. He folds everything else that he could be holding on the flop. His turn/river play suggests 4's also. What is the best play on the river.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($124.95)
Button ($72.95)
SB ($14.40)
Hero ($113.30)
UTG ($79.90)
UTG+1 ($128)
MP1 ($266.60)
MP2 ($85.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T, K.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3.50) K, T, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $2, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2.

Turn: ($9.50) 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks.

River: ($9.50) T (3 players)
Hero bets $6, MP1 raises to $12, MP2 folds

[daven]

your hand is well hidden, looks like a king OR a ten.
Raise to $40 hoping to induce a push, or push with the risk that villain folds?
I think raise to $40 pays off better longterm

[Pelion]

Raise to $40 hoping to induce a push, or push with the risk that villain folds?

Why would he push over a reraise if he's folding to a push? I think if he pushes over then he'll call a push. I'd just push over on the river. I really doubt he's nitty enough to fold 44 here.

[wufwugy]

Yeah when you can put villian on a hand like that a push is correct.

[daven]

Why would he push over a reraise if he's folding to a push?

cos I'm thinking in 25nl terms, where this would definitely happen. Anyway, I'm lost in translation. Good point. Thanks.

[Deanglow]

If he is calling $40 then is calling a push. Go allin.

[pgil]

just double checking that the consensus is AI. that's what i did, and the bastard folded after a long time.

leading is better than checkraising the river right. 44 has to bet, but also has to raise the lead. the CR may look fishier/more like a straight, because the straight rarely 3bet pushes on a paired board. If he raises anything more than a minraise, his stack goes in. This hand is still bugging me.

Oh well, don't be results oriented. make the best play and it will pay off long term. made a few valuable notes on the guy at least.